ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Floater is back on for ex-TD#4

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

finally ! I mean at 2pm we will have at least a mention... I will be optimistic and they the NHC will go with 0 to 10 % lol.. then each consecutive two it will slowly increase just because.

[RL3AO]

Seeing the last few hours, a special TWO wouldn't surprise me.

[tropicwatch]

They don't usually put up a floater unless we have an active designated Invest # do they?

[RL3AO]

It would be interesting if this became Potential TC Four after already being TD Four.

[GeneratorPower]

It would be interesting if this became Potential TC Four after already being TD Four.

I don't think it would be PTC Four. It would be Five.

[Aric Dunn]

It would be interesting if this became Potential TC Four after already being TD Four.

I don't think it would be PTC Four. It would be Five.

no its still the same wave/system. would be 4 again.

[AtlanticWind]

Arc clouds emanating from the convective burst signify downdrafts due to mid-level dry entrainment. We'll see if convection persists or dies

From Levi Cowan

[NDG]

Is good to have a buoy that confirms that former TD 4 has a closed circulation this morning so that there is no denial from the visible satellite loop.

[RL3AO]

Arc clouds emanating from the convective burst signify downdrafts due to mid-level dry entrainment. We'll see if convection persists or dies

From Levi Cowan

Looks a lot like a wave in the east Atlantic. Big convective burst. Pulls in dry air. Atmosphere moistens again. Big convective burst. Rinse and repeat.

[GCANE]

Arc clouds emanating from the convective burst signify downdrafts due to mid-level dry entrainment. We'll see if convection persists or dies

From Levi Cowan

Where is he seeing those?

[Aric Dunn]

Arc clouds emanating from the convective burst signify downdrafts due to mid-level dry entrainment. We'll see if convection persists or dies

From Levi Cowan

I have been watching those. they dont appear to be arc clouds they formed away from the convection with no visible outward push in the low levels. the system is a little elongated from part of the wave axis racing west ahead of the circ they could be some consequence of that. just have to watch..

[BobHarlem]

Arc clouds emanating from the convective burst signify downdrafts due to mid-level dry entrainment. We'll see if convection persists or dies

From Levi Cowan

Where is he seeing those?

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/884422737279799296

[Blown Away]

[NDG]

The LLC, if it is even present, is too weak/disorganized to classify this system as a depression. No ASCAT hit in the last day or so (of course). Pressures are pretty high around. Found a report of 1015.8mb not far SW of the convection. Still a strong tropical wave today.

There's only a 1032 mb Atlantic High Pressure just 1500 miles to the ne of this system

[ronjon]

Low level circulation on the western edge of convection...still being sheared by ULL to its north.

[GCANE]

Arc clouds emanating from the convective burst signify downdrafts due to mid-level dry entrainment. We'll see if convection persists or dies

From Levi Cowan

Where is he seeing those?

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 7279799296

Hmm, really doesn't look like an outflow boundary to me; but, that is just my opinion.

[tropicwatch]

It doesn't look like it is too dry.

GOES 16 WV Loop:

[SouthDadeFish]

There are definitely arc clouds emanating away from the TC to the NW. Nonetheless, I see low-level inflow from the SW toward the convective mass (confirmed by buoy reports), which should help sustain convection. Since any potential low-level circulation is quite weak, I think it's possible the previous vort max to the NW of the convection slowly erodes while a new circulation forms closer to the convection, along the convergence axis seen from the aforementioned SW inflow. The development of a dominant surface center farther SE would benefit the disturbance in two ways:

1) Less vertical tilt between a mid- and low-level center.

2) Regions farther south are located in weaker vertical wind shear.

Just something to keep an eye on as we go forward. I'm not saying I expect genesis, but it's definitely greater than 0%

[NDG]

[Weather150]