WPAC: INVEST 91W
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N 112.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS AREA IS IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH (>30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
a lot of shear
APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS AREA IS IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGH (>30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
a lot of shear
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Typhoon10, I edited the post to put the image instead of the link that was very long.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
cycloneye wrote:Typhoon10, I edited the post to put the image instead of the link that was very long.
Thanks for that, am still learning how to put the imagine into threads
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High shear but also a highly divergent sety-up, in many ways its a similar set-up to pre-Bonnie in the Atlantic.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Upgraded to fair by JWTC
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
112.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.8E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 241411Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT A PORTION OF THE
NARROW TROUGH HAS FORMED INTO A WEAK, YET SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241815Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED INFLOW AND WEAK BANDING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
STILL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, SIGNALING THE PRESENCE OF EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS HAS
STARTED TO RELAX SOME OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS DOWN TO 15-25
KNOTS. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DA NANG AND HO CHI MINH CITY,
VIETNAM SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY WINDS (5-30 KNOTS) THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM IS FORMING AND STARTING TO
DRIFT WESTWARD, BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR HAVE DECREASED.
FINALLY, UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS ALSO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK LLCC AND DECREASING VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
112.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.8E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 241411Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT A PORTION OF THE
NARROW TROUGH HAS FORMED INTO A WEAK, YET SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241815Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED INFLOW AND WEAK BANDING WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
STILL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, SIGNALING THE PRESENCE OF EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE VWS HAS
STARTED TO RELAX SOME OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS DOWN TO 15-25
KNOTS. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DA NANG AND HO CHI MINH CITY,
VIETNAM SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY WINDS (5-30 KNOTS) THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM IS FORMING AND STARTING TO
DRIFT WESTWARD, BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR HAVE DECREASED.
FINALLY, UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS ALSO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A WEAK LLCC AND DECREASING VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N
112.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 241411Z ASCAT PASS AND A
250245Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AT THE CENTER AND 25 KNOT WESTERLIES SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION. A 242348Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SLIGHT
CURVATURE BUT NO ORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH AN AREA OF BROAD DIFFLUENCE WITH 20
TO 25 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
112.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 241411Z ASCAT PASS AND A
250245Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AT THE CENTER AND 25 KNOT WESTERLIES SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION. A 242348Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SLIGHT
CURVATURE BUT NO ORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH AN AREA OF BROAD DIFFLUENCE WITH 20
TO 25 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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Whilst still looking somewhat sheared it looks decent enough right now and 30kts IMO looks about right.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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