#1500 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:21 am
I'm just curious whether the EURO, CMC, and NAM are have a track that brings the storm up to S. Florida any bit quicker then the GFS or other "east" leaning models? I'll be curious to see whether the 12Z GFS slows or slightly speeds up bringing Isaias to Miami's latitude. It's possible that any small difference in timing might be some factor in whether the storm might track just far enough to the west prior to turning more NNW. I suppose that if the storm were to more quickly reorganize of the N. coast of Hispaniola, that might cause slightly shorten the track time-line and possibly allow the storm to move a bit more WNW prior to feeling the effect of the eroding ridge to it's north. To the other extreme and possibly more plausible cause of an impact to S. Florida would be if Hispaniola just wrecked Isaias' circulation enough causing a greater delay in reformation, and then having the broader mess continue more WNW as a result of lower level steering. TBH though, it's pretty hard to go against NHC's thinking that this will simply skirt just east of S. Florida. This just so often seems to play out that way.
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