Tropical Wave in the East-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 92L)

[SFLcane]

Here is the wave the models 00z models are excited about.

[chaser1]

Here is the wave the models 00z models are excited about.

https://i.imgur.com/gfQXkVs.gif

Looking mighty juicy with nice low level inflow from the southwest and the ESE.

[SFLcane]

This wave is potentially the one to watch. The gfs does not develop for another 4-5 days.

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro and its EPS Ensembles still show nothing for the next two weeks in terms of Western Caribbean mischief.

 https://twitter.com/JkpWeather/status/1311274973919694848

[aspen]

GFS-Para has a nameable TC in 5-6 days. If the first wave/Gamma isn’t able to become anything significant, than odds are it’ll be this wave/future Delta, especially if it develops in the middle of the Caribbean before progressing westward into the WCar’s 30-31C SSTs and high OHC.

[SconnieCane]

The Euro and its EPS Ensembles still show nothing for the next two weeks in terms of Western Caribbean mischief.

https://twitter.com/JkpWeather/status/1311274973919694848

...and it did how well with Hanna, Laura and Sally pre-genesis?

[Blown Away]

This model storm is in the long range, let's see if it hangs on as we move into the mid range timing... Michael Part 2...

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.imgur.com/WNkwGw3.gif
This model storm is in the long range, let's see if it hangs on as we move into the mid range timing... Michael Part 2...

Who knows, could be anywhere from a Wilma part 2 to being buried in Central America like the first wave we really don’t know yet

[aspen]

The 06z GFS appears to show formation happening as early as 120 hrs, with the precursor vorticity coming from a mass in South America. However, things become complicated as it gets tangled up in a CAG (circled in dotted lines) that also produces a system in the EPac.

[Shell Mound]

The 06Z GFS-P shows a much weaker vortex, owing to a stronger TUTT nearby. The overall hemispheric pattern is more amplified vs. 00Z and shows more AWB. The subtropical jet is also stronger on this run. Overall, this run has reverted to Niño-like conditions, so TCG is much more subdued vs. 00Z. We will need to see whether conditions end up being closer to those modelled at 00Z vs. 06Z. But a bearish outcome would be more in line with seasonal trends. I think some level of development is likely, but at this point I continue to anticipate a weak system.

[SFLcane]

The 06Z GFS-P shows a much weaker vortex, owing to a stronger TUTT nearby. The overall hemispheric pattern is more amplified vs. 00Z and shows more AWB. The subtropical jet is also stronger on this run. Overall, this run has reverted to Niño-like conditions, so TCG is much more subdued vs. 00Z. We will need to see whether conditions end up being closer to those modelled at 00Z vs. 06Z. But a bearish outcome would be more in line with seasonal trends. I think some level of development is likely, but at this point I continue to anticipate a weak system.

No...

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1311320145525055498

[toad strangler]

12z GFS vort signature already much different and E of 6z with this wave through 126 hrs.

[CourierPR]

I am always relieved when someone posts info from a genuine meteorologist to offset the official-sounding misinformation couched in technical language.

[CyclonicFury]

The 06Z GFS-P shows a much weaker vortex, owing to a stronger TUTT nearby. The overall hemispheric pattern is more amplified vs. 00Z and shows more AWB. The subtropical jet is also stronger on this run. Overall, this run has reverted to Niño-like conditions, so TCG is much more subdued vs. 00Z. We will need to see whether conditions end up being closer to those modelled at 00Z vs. 06Z. But a bearish outcome would be more in line with seasonal trends. I think some level of development is likely, but at this point I continue to anticipate a weak system.

No...

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1311320145525055498?

I don't know why Shell keeps bringing up "Niño like conditions" when shear has been persistently below normal over the Caribbean since July.

[AutoPenalti]

I am always relieved when someone posts info from a genuine meteorologist to offset the official-sounding misinformation couched in technical language.

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he is very technical when it comes to real-time conditions. He seems to pour out some good insight per model run basis.

Now if he actually believes that the former will actually occur even after model runs adjust is a different story.

[Spacecoast]

The 06Z GFS-P shows a much weaker vortex, owing to a stronger TUTT nearby. The overall hemispheric pattern is more amplified vs. 00Z and shows more AWB. The subtropical jet is also stronger on this run. Overall, this run has reverted to Niño-like conditions, so TCG is much more subdued vs. 00Z. We will need to see whether conditions end up being closer to those modelled at 00Z vs. 06Z. But a bearish outcome would be more in line with seasonal trends. I think some level of development is likely, but at this point I continue to anticipate a weak system.

No...

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1311320145525055498?

From CSU's 2 week forecast:

"We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-normalTC activity (>9ACE). While there are currently no active tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Atlantic, theNational Hurricane Center is currently monitoring an area of low pressure that is forecast to develop in the western Caribbean and has a medium chance of becoming a TC in the next few days. While the various global models have varying solutions as to how intense this cyclonewill get, this system could generate small to medium levels of ACE if it were to develop."

So, 9 ACE next 2 weeks compared to a total of 36 ACE observed during the two-week period September 16–29.

[caneseddy]

12z GFS doesn’t do much with it until it gets into the Gulf where after getting close to Louisiana decides to make a hard right and seems to follow the coastline as an intensifying hurricane

Landfall as Cat1/2 in Panama City

[SFLcane]

This wave is looking impressive this afternoon!

[CourierPR]

I am always relieved when someone posts info from a genuine meteorologist to offset the official-sounding misinformation couched in technical language.

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he is very technical when it comes to real-time conditions. He seems to pour out some good insight per model run basis.

Now if he actually believes that the former will actually occur even after model runs adjust is a different story.

I will do that as well. My apologies for over-reacting, Shell Mound.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GFS doesn’t do much with it until it gets into the Gulf where after getting close to Louisiana decides to make a hard right and seems to follow the coastline as an intensifying hurricane

Wouldn’t put much stock in that track. The gfs tends to overdo fujiwara style interactions between systems, which is why it pushes this so far west. It’s possible, but I expect significant run-to-run variability in track and intensity as a result over the next 3 days