Low Pressure east of Windward Islands (Is Invest 94L)

[cycloneye]

An incipient area of convection is just off the West Coast of Africa but it has not been introduced as a Tropical Wave. The models dont do anything with this at this time.

[abajan]

It was introduced in the 12z Surface Analysis:



Updated and zoomed-out visible imagery shows a mid level circulation centered near 12N 19W.
But it may just be a mid level one.

[cycloneye]

Thank you abajan for posting the wave introduction as I was at church.

[Steve H.]

It is impressive. Looks like too much subsidence for development.

[cycloneye]

This wave may sacrifice to clean the sal for the next one.

[AutoPenalti]

It’s a sweeper wave for sure.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 19N
southward and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 07N to 14N between 18W and 22W.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 18N
southward and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 05N to 11N between 18W and 26W.

[Shell Mound]

Most of the EC ensembles, along with the operational run, show a tropical storm forming within the next few days and tracking generally WNW at high latitude.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 25W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is surrounded by dry and
dusty Saharan Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and
thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

Some spin.

[cycloneye]

Convection has increased in the past few hours but it not may mean anything but otherwise it might be something so we wait and watch.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zEuro seems to develop this in 2 days into a tropical cyclone, I don’t know about that but this may need to be monitored for possible spin up the next few days

[SFLcane]

Convection has increased in the past few hours but it not may mean anything but otherwise it might be something so we wait and watch.

https://i.imgur.com/WlOVawN.gif

Decent monsoon trough.. Nothing particularly organized there

[aspen]

If the Euro is the one model that successfully predicts development and all the other globals fail…wow, what a comeback from last year.

My hat is set aside in the event the Euro is right.

[captainbarbossa19]

If the Euro is the one model that successfully predicts development and all the other globals fail…wow, what a comeback from last year.

My hat is set aside in the event the Euro is right.

Watch the Euro drop development of this, and then it develops in about 3-5 days.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If the Euro is the one model that successfully predicts development and all the other globals fail…wow, what a comeback from last year.

My hat is set aside in the event the Euro is right.

Watch the Euro drop development of this, and then it develops in about 3-5 days.

I guarantee the 12z Euro will drop it.

[Category5Kaiju]

If the Euro actually verifies and we get a designated TC near the Cabo Verde islands within 48 or 72 hours...that would be quite a comeback

[cycloneye]

I am waiting for the TWD to see if this thread will have to be split.

[abajan]

I am waiting for the TWD to see if this thread will have to be split.

It's a bit confusing as to if it's associated with this wave or if they repositioned the low I posted about. It seems a fair amount of repositioning has been done lately.