2023 EPAC Season

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cycloneye
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#441 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 30, 2023 6:32 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle to latter part of next week while
it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#442 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 30, 2023 7:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Welp the EPAC seems to have gone dormant.

Soon as I posted this, global models immediately started showing development.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#443 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Sep 30, 2023 7:57 pm

GFS and the Euro now agree on two pretty strong systems forming. GFS leaning towards two majors. More than enough to take it well above-average.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#444 Postby Astromanía » Sat Sep 30, 2023 9:03 pm

Hey, I'm going to travel to mazatlan from Oct 8th to 11th, what models says about the potential systems? I know they tend to recurve in Octuber and affect land, I don't want a major in my way lol
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#445 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 30, 2023 11:41 pm

Image

Image

Potential exists for significant TC activity but not sure if upper environment will cooperate for more potent systems due to the usual easterly shear.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sat Sep 30, 2023 11:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#446 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 30, 2023 11:45 pm

Astromanía wrote:Hey, I'm going to travel to mazatlan from Oct 8th to 11th, what models says about the potential systems? I know they tend to recurve in Octuber and affect land, I don't want a major in my way lol



Second system is the one to watch that hasn’t been tagged yet that globals and their ensembles still want to recurve.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#447 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 01, 2023 6:41 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 1 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles south
of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable for development of this system during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the middle part of this week while it moves generally
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#448 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 01, 2023 9:50 am

The GFS has the first system as a big ACE maker cat.4. Euro makes it a cat.1 then kills it quickly. Interests in Mexico should monitor the second system as the global do show a landfalling system and it will be over some of the warmest waters in the Pacific.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#449 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 01, 2023 9:51 am

Image

Theme of the season: Extra large system that takes a little while to get going.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#450 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 01, 2023 12:32 pm

The second one added.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 1 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development of this system during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the middle part of this week while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Central America during the middle to latter part of
this week. Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is
possible while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#451 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 01, 2023 12:45 pm

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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#452 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 01, 2023 1:44 pm

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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#453 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 01, 2023 2:15 pm

GFS and Euro are very bullish on future 99E close to the CA and Mexican coasts. GFS has 954 mbs at landfall while Euro has 969 mbs.

Image

Image
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#454 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 01, 2023 6:33 pm

South of Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Central America toward the end of this week.
Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is possible
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Roberts
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#455 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 02, 2023 6:59 am

South of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Central America during the second half of this
week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for
gradual development of the low pressure system after it forms, and a
tropical depression could develop late this week or over the weekend
while the disturbance moves generally westward to west-northwestward
at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#456 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 02, 2023 1:10 pm

South of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Central America during the second half of this
week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for at
least gradual development of the disturbance after it forms, and a
tropical depression could develop late this week or over the weekend
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#457 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 02, 2023 6:53 pm

South of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Central America during the next few days.
Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of the disturbance, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or over the weekend while
the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#458 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 03, 2023 6:58 pm

South of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Central America during the next few days.
Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#459 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 04, 2023 7:28 am

1. South of Central America:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms located well south of the
coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the
disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system,
if any, should be slow to occur while it moves little during the
next couple of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
forecast to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: 2023 EPAC Season

#460 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:18 pm

1. South of Central America:
A large, elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well
south of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while
the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system,
if any, should be slow to occur while it moves little during the
next couple of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
forecast to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kelly
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