ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here it is.

AL, 97, 2024092218, , BEST, 0, 153N, 832W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, al752024 to al972024

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal972024.dat

[ElectricStorm]

Well here we go. I hate gulf storms, hoping for something weaker than expected but I'm not getting my hopes up.

[Ivanhater]

Thanks Steve for the break down. So close to Pensacola to not be nervous but being just on the west side would be good for Metro P'cola. I just don't like the North then NW turn. Gonna be tight

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1837917452812144704

[cajungal]

Prayers for all in Florida. Although after Francine I am feeling more relieved to not deal with another in SE Louisiana, Florida is like a 2nd home to me. I wish it no one.

[TallyTracker]

I have a medical procedure scheduled for Thursday so naturally this would time to mess with that…

I talked to some folks today at church and some had heard about the system and some haven’t. My Panama City relations have heard about it cause they model watch now after Michael so they can evacuate instead of ride out a major.

[weeniepatrol]

[Hurricane2022]

Here we go. This should be a long thread. I'm expecting an very strong hurricane, possibly a Major, to affect the Big Bend region but obviously nothing is guaranteed at this time. Let's see what happens next!!

[xironman]

Yeah, it will be on the 0z model runs

[Hurricane2022]

https://imgur.com/T8epH6T

I see a possible disorganised LLC just north of the Hon/Nic border...

[Recurve]

St. Petersburg here. Just want to point out that Big Bend-Panhandle could be bad for Tampa area flooding because wind can stream right up the bay as the center heads into the coast to the north and/or crosses the peninsula to the north. I am on high ground, but I do worry about all the low areas from Bradenton to downtown Tampa to Apollo Beach.

I also note from years of watching NW Caribbean storms that will get steered/recurved by a front, that the track trend always seems to go southward closer to landfall, Ian being just one example of many, back to Charley, Wilma (?), and others. In this area, missing just to the north of us could be much worse than missing to the south.

[MarioProtVI]

SHIPS already has a major at landfall from this.

[robbielyn]

On X, Levi says by the time we know exactly who will be affected say by monday into tuesday, it will only leave a couple of days to prepare. he says while conditions aren’t perfect, it will still favor intensification. He will start do videos tomorrow morning.

[StPeteMike]

SHIPS already has a major at landfall from this.

Very well could happen. She seems to be organizing faster than what was forecasted yesterday.

[ljmac75]

Prediction for 97L: Strengthens into a major hurricane over the gulf, peaking as a low-end category 4. Then, it weakens substantially in the last few hours before landfall hitting near Keaton Beach as a high-end category 2 or low-end category 3.

Wait, I night be thinking of something else.

[MarioProtVI]

Prediction for 97L: Strengthens into a major hurricane over the gulf, peaking as a low-end category 4. Then, it weakens substantially in the last few hours before landfall hitting near Keaton Beach as a high-end category 2 or low-end category 3.

Wait, I night be thinking of something else.

[Nimbus]

https://imgur.com/T8epH6T

I see a possible disorganised LLC just north of the Hon/Nic border...

Clear low level circulation rotating south over Honduras. 15N is quite a bit south of where the GFS had it organizing.

[StPeteMike]

As much as I would love to have this avoid the Tampa Bay region, I have to feel for the people of Big Bend to Pensacola if it heads in that direction. They would need at least a 500 year break of storms after everything they have gone through.

[caneman]

https://imgur.com/T8epH6T

I see a possible disorganised LLC just north of the Hon/Nic border...

Clear low level circulation rotating south over Honduras. 15N is quite a bit south of where the GFS had it organizing.

I see at least a couple vortices. Just depends on where it consolidates

[Nimbus]

I see a possible disorganised LLC just north of the Hon/Nic border...

Clear low level circulation rotating south over Honduras. 15N is quite a bit south of where the GFS had it organizing.

I see at least a couple vortices. Just depends on where it consolidates

The center of low level circulation is right on the coast of Honduras, low level clouds making the arc around the western quadrants of the storm. 06Z ECM model for 97L initialized the low just NW of there for 2 AM Monday. The Euro differs from the 12Z GFS in that it tracks 97L across the tip of the Yucatan rather than through the channel. Over 100 miles further west at that point.