From NHC,TD still possible Recon to investigate

[Stormcenter]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 14, 2004



for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

the broad low pressure area centered about 200 miles south of the
central coast of Louisiana is producing widespread cloudiness and
thunderstorms over much of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Although thunderstorm activity has increased...the overall
organization of this system has changed little during the past 24
hours. However...conditions remain marginally favorable for a
tropical depression to form later today or Tuesday as this weather
system moves northward at 5 to 10 mph. An Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops...a large area of rainfall accompanies this system and
locally heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the Gulf
states from Louisiana eastward to Florida.
A westward-moving tropical wave located about 700 miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing showers and a
few thunderstorms. While this system has become a little better
organized...there are no signs of tropical cyclone development at
this time.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected through
Tuesday.
Forecaster Stewart
$$

[HURAKAN]

Let see what the RECON has to say. TD formation I believe is still possible.

[lilbump3000]

Are they going out the same time they did yesterday?

[Matthew5]

They will find stronger winds today "very likely". This system now has real convection to push down stronger winds. In yes many systems have formed with out any western covection at all. Still a system to be respected.


They will hold off intill the recon proves it.

[Anonymous]

It's a very broad and disorganized trough of low pressure...much farther away from TD strength than it was yesterday. Also, it's being impacted by strong shear from the shortwave, and not to mention dry air is getting channeled into it from the upper level low over Texas. TD or TS remains highly improbable.

[Matthew5]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 14, 2004



for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

the broad low pressure area centered about 200 miles south of the
central coast of Louisiana is producing widespread cloudiness and
thunderstorms over much of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Although thunderstorm activity has increased...the overall
organization of this system has changed little during the past 24
hours. However...conditions remain marginally favorable for a
tropical depression to form later today or Tuesday as this weather
system moves northward at 5 to 10 mph. An Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops...a large area of rainfall accompanies this system and
locally heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the Gulf
states from Louisiana eastward to Florida.
A westward-moving tropical wave located about 700 miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing showers and a
few thunderstorms. While this system has become a little better
organized...there are no signs of tropical cyclone development at
this time.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected through
Tuesday.
Forecaster Stewart
$$

?

[Anonymous]

They will find stronger winds today "very likely". This system now has real convection to push down stronger winds. In yes many systems have formed with out any western covection at all. Still a system to be respected.


They will hold off intill the recon proves it.

Convection is being enhanced by diffluent flow from the shortwave...but the environment does not favor tropical cyclone development AT ALL. Very surprised the NHC is sending a recon today.

[Stormcenter]

They will find stronger winds today "very likely". This system now has real convection to push down stronger winds. In yes many systems have formed with out any western covection at all. Still a system to be respected.



They will hold off intill the recon proves it.

Convection is being enhanced by diffluent flow from the shortwave...but the environment does not favor tropical cyclone development AT ALL. Very surprised the NHC is sending a recon today.

Not only are they sending a recon but they also state conditions are "marginally favorable". So who should we believe, the
people who post on this board or the NHC?

[lilbump3000]

I will believe the NHC, they may be wrong, but they have more technology to work with than the smart people that know alot about weather on this board.

[Anonymous]

They will find stronger winds today "very likely". This system now has real convection to push down stronger winds. In yes many systems have formed with out any western covection at all. Still a system to be respected.



They will hold off intill the recon proves it.

Convection is being enhanced by diffluent flow from the shortwave...but the environment does not favor tropical cyclone development AT ALL. Very surprised the NHC is sending a recon today.

Not only are they sending a recon but they also state conditions are "marginally favorable". So who should we believe, the
people who post on this board or the NHC?

Hmmm I wonder why our organized low looks a like a trough.

[Stormcenter]

They will find stronger winds today "very likely". This system now has real convection to push down stronger winds. In yes many systems have formed with out any western covection at all. Still a system to be respected.



They will hold off intill the recon proves it.

Convection is being enhanced by diffluent flow from the shortwave...but the environment does not favor tropical cyclone development AT ALL. Very surprised the NHC is sending a recon today.

Not only are they sending a recon but they also state conditions are "marginally favorable". So who should we believe, the
people who post on this board or the NHC?

Hmmm I wonder why our organized low looks a like a trough.

It's in disguise, LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

Have looked at some high res images, NHC is correct on this one. This is likely already a TD, if we can get winds to at least 25KT

[chadtm80]

Stormcenter.. I am telling you once again to watch your step

[Air Force Met]

Derek...I believe it is a TD as well...at least it fits the definition. What is up in there air...as you well know...is whether the NHC wants to pull the trigger or not on a system that may dissipate in the near future and doesn't look classical.

That...as is the case most of the time...is the real question. You can see the LLC on vis loops and it shows up in the GOM plots. The pressure is about 1009 and some winds on the far eastern edge are gusting to near TS force. Buoy 42001 has winds sustained at 27 kts. So...the question is what will THEY do? DO they want to issue on a system that will not develop any more than it already has? Who knows the answer to that one. I think there is a chance they will pull the trigger just so Joe citizen who lives along the northern GOM will have a better clue what is going on.

[chadtm80]

I think there is a chance they will pull the trigger just so Joe citizen who lives along the northern GOM will have a better clue what is going on.

I agree that that is what they will base there decision on. If not for that factor no way it gets called.. We shall see I guess

[*StOrmsPr*]

Derek...I believe it is a TD as well...at least it fits the definition. What is up in there air...as you well know...is whether the NHC wants to pull the trigger or not on a system that may dissipate in the near future and doesn't look classical.

That...as is the case most of the time...is the real question. You can see the LLC on vis loops and it shows up in the GOM plots. The pressure is about 1009 and some winds on the far eastern edge are gusting to near TS force. Buoy 42001 has winds sustained at 27 kts. So...the question is what will THEY do? DO they want to issue on a system that will not develop any more than it already has? Who knows the answer to that one. I think there is a chance they will pull the trigger just so Joe citizen who lives along the northern GOM will have a better clue what is going on.

i think and is my opinion BTW! that they should classify it ,that is if this is a TD for real, i think it doesn't matter( it should not) if it will last 3 hours or 12hours or 5 days,besides how many times they have called a TD to make it to TS or even 'cane status just to see it fall apart a couple hours latter?? otherwise why classify a TD? why not wait until it reaches TS status!
again just my opinion! again only them know for sure what they are going to do !

[mf_dolphin]

Buoy 42001 is reporting sustained winds of 27.2 kts (31.3 mph) from the south at the noon reading. Looks like we may just have a TD today.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42001

[chadtm80]

GOM Buoy Page http://www.storm2k.org/weather/gombuoy.html

[Johnny]

Simply put, conditions just flat out are not favorable for this system to become a tropical storm. I do believe that the present organization and conditions with it do meet the criteria for this to be a TD. The question is, should a TD advisory be put out? With tropical storm force winds being felt in certain areas, I guess they should. Maybe NHC will flip a coin later on this afternoon. I say 'TAILS'!!!
The main concern of course will be the rain fall. I live in the Houston/Galv area and we are already saturated. Our forecast shows that we will be hit most of this week with very heavy rain. I see a Flood Watch being issued in the near future. Lots and lots of tropical moisture being pumped into the western and central gulf coast states. Heck, this goes for all the gulf coast states I guess. The main issue with the Gulf of Mexico is........lots of moisture, not high winds and storm surge.

[Rainband]

With tropical storm force winds being felt in certain areas, I guess they should. The main issue with the Gulf of Mexico is........lots of moisture, not high winds and storm surge.

Where are there TS force winds??