any new info on Fl drought

[boca]

Any encouraging info on this never ending drought?

[Stormsfury]

Boca, unfortunately no ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=30303

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=30301

[boca]

Stormfury I went on your site yesturday and I couldn't bring up your latest storm predictions. I went under current forecasts and it brought me to your previous predictions, help!!!

[USAwx1]

None likely in the Short term, Boca, and even in the meadium range things dont look all that promising.

[Stormsfury]

Stormfury I went on your site yesturday and I couldn't bring up your latest storm predictions. I went under current forecasts and it brought me to your previous predictions, help!!!

Clear your cache and refresh the page ... I updated the site yesterday (the final numbers are on the top and a brief discussion ... under that was the preliminary release back in mid-December ...

SF

[boca]

Got it , thanks.

[FWBHurricane]

I just looked up our forcast and The Florida Panhandle has a small chance for rain on Saturday, Tuesday-Friday, then a small chance on Sunday I think. Most of the chances are below 30%.

[Amanzi]

I was watching the local news the other night, and they had a story on the fires of 98, kind of recapping on what the situation is like. According to the numbers they gave central Florida has had half the amount of rain as the May of 98 which puts us in a worse situation than we were then. I just hope people use there brains and realise there is a serious problem and dont go doing stupid things like throwing ciggarettes out the car. I get so mad when people do that. The underbrush around here is like a tinderbox waiting for a spark. Our t\storm probability is only 30% for this Sunday and upcomming tuesday. What scares me though is that most of the fires back in 98 were started by lightning.

[Lindaloo]

Same here for the MS Coast. Why are we once again under these drought conditions? Seems like this happens every spring and summer.

[Patrick99]

It seems that the past several years, we have gotten most of our rain in "rain events," which is not at all the way I remember it before then, and growing up. Rain was more of a popcorn-type daily occurrence. In Miami, if there was a strong east wind, you typically got showers in the morning, if there was a weak east flow, you got storms in the afternoon. Every single day in the summer. The past several years, it's always either rain rain rain, or dry dry dry.

Sure, some summers were more dry than others, but we NEVER had outbreaks of "dry air" to this extent where you don't even see any clouds in the sky. You don't even see any inland buildups.

[sea oat]

i concur patrick. used to be able to set your watch by the convectional thunderstorms every afternoon. i'm in the panhandle and have noticed the same thing last couple of years that you have.

just blue sky, it needs to rain!!!!

[dixiebreeze]

I just looked up our forcast and The Florida Panhandle has a small chance for rain on Saturday, Tuesday-Friday, then a small chance on Sunday I think. Most of the chances are below 30%.

I noticed that our area, west central Florida, has a 30 percent chance of rain next Wed. & Thurs. Hope that percentage goes up! It is really getting close to resembling the spring/summer of '98 around here.

[FWBHurricane]

Yeah its getting really bad, forest fires have started popping up around here.

[Aquawind]

I just looked up our forcast and The Florida Panhandle has a small chance for rain on Saturday, Tuesday-Friday, then a small chance on Sunday I think. Most of the chances are below 30%.

I noticed that our area, west central Florida, has a 30 percent chance of rain next Wed. & Thurs. Hope that percentage goes up! It is really getting close to resembling the spring/summer of '98 around here.

Yep, The forecast has changed as is including even 40% with the mention of transition to rainy season..

000
FXUS62 KTBW 281725
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
125 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
FA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A WARM AND DRY PATTERN AS IT MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...CENTERED OVER
THE ATLANTIC...WILL MEANDER VERY SLOWLY OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTH FL...KEEPING A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL VEER WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO EXCEPT THE SW TO W FLOW WILL KEEPS COASTAL
LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE DAY AND WARMER AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL VERY SLOWLY FALL DURING THE WEEK
AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED...BUT STILL PALTRY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. AFTERNOON POPS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM 10 PERCENT
MONDAY TO 40 PERCENT BY FRIDAY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 90S EXCEPT AT THE BEACHES...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND
COOL SPOTS TO MID 70S AT THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL
TRANSITION INTO THE RAINY SEASON AT ABOUT THE RIGHT TIME OF YEAR.&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATES AND WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS OF 15KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 35-40 PERCENT
BOTH SAT AND SUN...MAINLY INLAND...AND THEN CLIMB IN THE 40-50 %
RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 91 77 92 / 00 00 00 00
FMY 74 91 74 94 / 00 00 00 00
GIF 74 96 72 96 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 73 87 74 90 / 00 00 00 00
BKV 67 93 69 93 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RKR
LONG TERM...FWA

[jlauderdal]

Any encouraging info on this never ending drought?

yes

1. Climatology record is June 7th +- few days.

2. Monster ridge showing signs of busting a little next weds.

3. Moisture coming in from SW in tandem with ridge retreat next week.

4. Absolutely no clouds this afternoon at commercial and bayview so the rain is coming, it never fails.

5. Atmosphere always averges out in the long run

Crank up the sprinklers, enjoy the warm pool and watch the SSt's go through the roof and dont get ready for tropical activity close in.

[WeatherNole]

Not looking too good for the next several days (but it's still better than the previous several days). Yes, small PoPs are creeping back into the forecast (I went with 30% for the Big Bend/South Georgia Sunday thru Tuesday), but the whole area is drying out to dangerous levels. See the latest Keetch-Byram Drought Index :

http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/kbdi/

This recent ridge has been fairly strong, but the one in 1998 was certainly worse. Here in Tallahassee, May 1998 only had .54" of rain (and .38" of that fell on the 31st!). In addition, there were 10 days in May 1998 that reached 95 degrees or higher. Today (Friday) was the first time we hit 95 this year (and we never got above 94 ALL of last summer).

June 1998 was the crippling month. Only 1.95" of rain fell at TLH (normal is 6.92"), and the heat was absolutely unbelievable. 26 of June's 30 days reached 95 or higher, and 12 of those days reached or exceeded 100 degrees. The mean temperature for the month of 85.3 made it Tallahassee's hottest month on record. (The avg. high temp for the month was 98.3.)

Bottom line - 2004 is not off to a good start, BUT (at least so far), it's not nearly as bad as 1998. Let's hope the ridge breaks down, or better yet - moves out into the Atlantic where it belongs, and our afternoon storms return soon. If not . . . well, I'd rather not think about that right now.

Mike

--

[USAwx1]

If not . . . well, I'd rather not think about that right now.

Mike

--

Me either....But Most of the Southeast would be forced to rely on landfalling tropical systems to east the rainfall deficit, IF the pattern doesn't break down.

[janswizard]

I hope everyone remembers the drought when it comes time for home fireworks for both this Memorial Day weekend and the Fourth of July.

Our city has banned the use of any fireworks - including sparklers, because of the drought index. All it takes is one small spark and we could be facing another year like 1998.