Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

[FireRat]

Typhoons are definitely the kings of the tropics, 898, gosh! Amazing the ship even survived that one!

As for landfallers, I remember reading once that the typhoon of Nov 1987, Nina I believe, struck the Philippines as a maxed-out Cat 5 and a pressure of 891 mb was measured at landfall. Always was curious about that one and if that reading was indeed real.

Edit: I found some info on this, and yeah it looks like it may have been that low according to the link below:

https://enacademic.com/dic.nsf/enwiki/1874548

The 891mb pressure was derived from the Atkinson-Holiday wind-pressure relationship and the 145KT JTWC best track intensity. Lowest pressure recorded in the Philippines at landfall should be 909.5mb for Nina.

I see! 891 is crazy, would've edged out the Labor Day hurricane landfall by 1 mb. Thanks for the clarification!

909 is still quite powerful for a landfall, ouch!
Easily among the top landfallers.

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: Oh yeah, Rita was a monster indeed! You know, she kind of resembles 1996 Edouard in size and overall shape, but with an even more circular cdo. 180 MPH certainly seems accurate for her.

Wow those 1980s EPAC hurricanes were def underestimated. Norma, Olivia, Kiko, Raymond and Tico take the cake IMO. Easy Cat 5's, probably between 140kt and 150kt.

1982 and 1983 was a strong El Nino period so we'd expect monster EPAC storms then.

My estimates looking at the satellite:

1981 Norma: 140 kt
1982 Daniel: 145 kt (at first picture; second picture was probably 130 kt or so)
1982 John: 150 kt
1982 Olivia: 160 kt
1983 Henriette: 145 kt (at first picture; second picture was probably about 125 kt)
1983 Kiko: 165 kt (probably 2nd place in the EPAC)
1983 Raymond: 160 kt (incredible cloud tops but not symmetrical - if it was symmetrical, it would be just under Patricia)
1983 Tico: 140 kt

[aspen]

:uarrow: Oh yeah, Rita was a monster indeed! You know, she kind of resembles 1996 Edouard in size and overall shape, but with an even more circular cdo. 180 MPH certainly seems accurate for her.

Wow those 1980s EPAC hurricanes were def underestimated. Norma, Olivia, Kiko, Raymond and Tico take the cake IMO. Easy Cat 5's, probably between 140kt and 150kt.

1982 and 1983 was a strong El Nino period so we'd expect monster EPAC storms then.

My estimates looking at the satellite:

1981 Norma: 140 kt
1982 Daniel: 145 kt (at first picture; second picture was probably 130 kt or so)
1982 John: 150 kt
1982 Olivia: 160 kt
1983 Henriette: 145 kt (at first picture; second picture was probably about 125 kt)
1983 Kiko: 165 kt (probably 2nd place in the EPAC)
1983 Raymond: 160 kt (incredible cloud tops but not symmetrical - if it was symmetrical, it would be just under Patricia)
1983 Tico: 140 kt

Are there any Dvorak images for Olivia, Kiko, and Raymond?

[1900hurricane]

:uarrow: Oh yeah, Rita was a monster indeed! You know, she kind of resembles 1996 Edouard in size and overall shape, but with an even more circular cdo. 180 MPH certainly seems accurate for her.

Wow those 1980s EPAC hurricanes were def underestimated. Norma, Olivia, Kiko, Raymond and Tico take the cake IMO. Easy Cat 5's, probably between 140kt and 150kt.

1982 and 1983 was a strong El Nino period so we'd expect monster EPAC storms then.

My estimates looking at the satellite:

1981 Norma: 140 kt
1982 Daniel: 145 kt (at first picture; second picture was probably 130 kt or so)
1982 John: 150 kt
1982 Olivia: 160 kt
1983 Henriette: 145 kt (at first picture; second picture was probably about 125 kt)
1983 Kiko: 165 kt (probably 2nd place in the EPAC)
1983 Raymond: 160 kt (incredible cloud tops but not symmetrical - if it was symmetrical, it would be just under Patricia)
1983 Tico: 140 kt

Are there any Dvorak images for Olivia, Kiko, and Raymond?

The images of these storms on the previous page actually follow the BD curve, although in a colorized version instead of black and white. Here is the scale so you can compare.

[Shell Mound]

Some additional EPAC cases (images courtesy of ibTRACS):



Douglas 1984 (official peak in HURDAT2: 125 kt; my estimate: 140-145 kt)


Elida 1984 (official peak in HURDAT2: 115 kt; my estimate: 145-150 kt)


Norbert 1984 (official peak in HURDAT2: 115 kt; my estimate: 155-160 kt)


Blanca 1985 (official peak in HURDAT2: 105 kt; my estimate: 140-145 kt)


Ignacio 1985 (official peak in HURDAT2: 115 kt; my estimate: 140-145 kt)



Rick 1985 (official peak in HURDAT2; 125 kt; my estimate: 155-160 kt)



Sandra 1985 (official peak in HURDAT2: 110 kt; my estimate: 160-165 kt)


Xina 1985 (official peak in HURDAT2: 100 kt; my estimate: 140-145 kt)

...

Fifteen (proposed) new Cat-5s in the EPAC, 1981–4 (based on analyses here and here):

1981 Norma
1982 Daniel
1982 John
1982 Olivia
1983 Henriette
1983 Kiko
1983 Raymond
1983 Tico
1984 Douglas
1984 Elida
1984 Norbert
1985 Blanca
1985 Ignacio
1985 Sandra
1985 Xina

[aspen]

Some additional EPAC cases (images courtesy of ibTRACS):

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1984/1984177N10254.DOUGLAS.1984.06.28.1200.24.GOE-6.101.hursat-b1.v07.png
http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1984/1984177N10254.DOUGLAS.1984.06.28.2100.23.GOE-6.108.hursat-b1.v07.png
Douglas 1984 (official peak in HURDAT2: 125 kt; my estimate: 140-145 kt)

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1984/1984180N10258.ELIDA.1984.07.01.0000.34.GOE-6.092.hursat-b1.v07.png
Elida 1984 (official peak in HURDAT2: 115 kt; my estimate: 145-150 kt)

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1984/1984259N19245.NORBERT.1984.09.20.0900.31.GOE-6.093.hursat-b1.v07.png
Norbert 1984 (official peak in HURDAT2: 115 kt; my estimate: 155-160 kt)

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1985/1985158N10267.BLANCA.1985.06.13.2100.21.GOE-6.090.hursat-b1.v07.png
Blanca 1985 (official peak in HURDAT2: 105 kt; my estimate: 140-145 kt)

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1985/1985202N13226.IGNACIO.1985.07.23.0600.53.GOE-6.088.hursat-b1.v07.png
Ignacio 1985 (official peak in HURDAT2: 115 kt; my estimate: 140-145 kt)

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1985/1985244N14254.RICK.1985.09.08.1500.49.GOE-6.103.hursat-b1.v07.png
http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1985/1985244N14254.RICK.1985.09.08.2100.50.GOE-6.105.hursat-b1.v07.png
Rick 1985 (official peak in HURDAT2; 125 kt; my estimate: 155-160 kt)

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1985/1985249N13265.SANDRA.1985.09.08.1500.22.GOE-6.079.hursat-b1.v07.png
http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1985/1985249N13265.SANDRA.1985.09.08.2100.23.GOE-6.092.hursat-b1.v07.png
Sandra 1985 (official peak in HURDAT2: 110 kt; my estimate: 160-165 kt)

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1985/1985298N12249.XINA.1985.10.29.1200.31.GOE-6.079.hursat-b1.v07.png
Xina 1985 (official peak in HURDAT2: 100 kt; my estimate: 140-145 kt)

...

Fifteen (proposed) new Cat-5s in the EPAC, 1981–4 (based on analyses here and here):

1981 Norma
1982 Daniel
1982 John
1982 Olivia
1983 Henriette
1983 Kiko
1983 Raymond
1983 Tico
1984 Douglas
1984 Elida
1984 Norbert
1985 Blanca
1985 Ignacio
1985 Sandra
1985 Xina

Sandra ‘85 was one of those systems that really popped out as being underestimated. A pinhole eye within a compact CDO and surrounded by excellent outflow...it just screams an extremely powerful Cat 5. 110 kt is ridiculously low; it’s probably within the Top 5 of the EPac and could’ve been sub-900 mbar if recon was able to go into it.

[aspen]

Has anyone attempted to estimate the peak intensity of Parma ‘09, like what 1900hurricane did with Hagibis ‘19?

[CrazyC83]

My estimates of those mid-80s storms:

1984 Douglas: 130 kt (doesn't wrap entirely around and eye wasn't that warm; second image estimate 115 kt)
1984 Elida: 145 kt
1984 Norbert: 160 kt
1985 Blanca: 140 kt
1985 Ignacio: 140 kt
1985 Rick: 160 kt (first image; second image estimate 155 kt)
1985 Sandra: 160 kt (low confidence - eye resolution is hard to resolve but it looked warm)
1985 Xina: 125 kt (eye not as clear as could be, but that could be a resolution issue - reminiscent of Joaquin 2015)

[Yellow Evan]

The most obvious EPAC cases (in years of periodically browsing these storms) of the 80s are Kiko 1983, Olivia 1982, and Max 1987. A couple others look quite close (130-135 knots which given how frequent 130-135 knot EPAC hurricanes have been in recent years, wouldn't be unrealistic). But honestly not sure these storms met the standard Dvorak constraints (Raymond 83 in particular comes to mind if I'm recalling its evolution correctly) or in some cases actually had a sufficient W ring to qualify for a T7.0 though hard to tell without a longitude latitude grid (Daniel and John 82 don't even have thick B ring).

[EquusStorm]

I hadn't looked too strongly into those mid 1980s EPac storms before... wow. Genuinely hope we get a good basin reanalysis there eventually. Had no idea just how dramatically underestimated those were. I'm gonna assume no recon on those at anywhere near peak

[Yellow Evan]

The most obvious EPAC cases (in years of periodically browsing these storms) of the 80s are Kiko 1983, Olivia 1982, and Max 1987. A couple others look quite close (130-135 knots which given how frequent 130-135 knot EPAC hurricanes have been in recent years, wouldn't be unrealistic). But honestly not sure these storms met the standard Dvorak constraints (Raymond 83 in particular comes to mind if I'm recalling its evolution correctly) or in some cases actually had a sufficient W ring to qualify for a T7.0 though hard to tell without a longitude latitude grid (Daniel and John 82 don't even have thick B ring).

Looking into this more (again after not browsing this sort of stuff for a couple years) I'm not sure the resolution (even lack of long/lat grid aside) is sufficient enough to even tell the eye temp on many of these.

For example, BD's of two of the suspected Cat 5 cases listed above near peak:





Good luck with the eye temp on both.

[Shell Mound]

Out of all the intense EPAC systems I’ve mentioned, none really comes close to Patricia’s in terms of its CDO:





All these images occurred from 03:00–09:00 UTC on 23 October, during the time of Patricia’s peak intensity.

[SconnieCane]

Now that right there (along with Haiyan) is the poster child for an "intense tropical cyclone."

[HurricaneEdouard]

I quite like going into the murky, silty depths of paleotempestology when pondering intense tropical cyclones; it might be because palaeontology and meteorology are my great interests in life, but there's something about looking for geological evidence of unreported historic or even prehistoric hurricanes that might make even the Labor Day Hurricane look banal (not that there is evidence so specific, or at least not yet, but the search itself, and the highly speculative nature of estimating landfalling intensity, is tantalising) that massively appeals to me.

Take, for example, this study, indicating a hurricane far more powerful than Hurricane Hattie (and six other paleotempestologically indicated hurricanes approximately equivalent to Hattie in intensity i.e. Category 4-5, which is what makes this ancient freak stand out so much) made landfall in Belize before 1500.

http://www.oceanography.lsu.edu/liu/pal ... r_2008.pdf

[1900hurricane]

The SAR instrument aboard Sentinel-1 got another clean pass, this time of Hurricane Douglas. Douglas had come down off peak intensity, but the significance of this pass is that recon made their first center fix in Douglas less than 1.5 hours later. The SAR estimate is the same as the SFMR estimate: 93 kt. The location was also almost identical: in the NW quadrant about 10 nm from the center (9 nm for SAR and 11 nm for recon). It's not the magic remote sensing answer key, SAR still occasionally throws out weird estimates, but this particular pass shows how good the instrument can be.

EP, 08, 202007250349, 70, SEN1, CIR, , 1788N, 14526W, 10 , , 93, 1, , , SEN1, 34, NEQ, 74, 46, 45, 62, , , , , , , , E, STAR, SAR, SAR, 202007250348, 202007250350, , , SENTINEL-1A, STAR Synthetic Aperture Radar 3KM Wind Speed Analysis
EP, 08, 202007250349, 70, SEN1, CIR, , 1788N, 14526W, 10 , , 93, 1, , , SEN1, 50, NEQ, 41, 28, 26, 38, , , , , , , , E, STAR, SAR, SAR, 202007250348, 202007250350, , , SENTINEL-1A, STAR Synthetic Aperture Radar 3KM Wind Speed Analysis
EP, 08, 202007250349, 70, SEN1, CIR, , 1788N, 14526W, 10 , , 93, 1, , , SEN1, 64, NEQ, 28, 19, 15, 28, , , , , , , , E, STAR, SAR, SAR, 202007250348, 202007250350, , , SENTINEL-1A, STAR Synthetic Aperture Radar 3KM Wind Speed Analysis

EP, 08, 202007250511, 50, AIRC, CI, , 1802N, 14567W, , 1, 93, 2, 972, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , PHFO, JJ, , 700, 2839, 93, 328, 11, 60, 108, 139, 13, 972, 8, 17, 2, , E, CO, , 16, , , 12, 1, Max FL Wind 108 kt / 15 NM 0506Z. Splash wind 9 kt.

[WAcyclone]

Interestingly, SMAP captured Douglas at around the same time (0315Z) and measured a very similar max wind of 98 kt (or 86 kt 10-minute). It is quite amazing to see both instruments being so close to the SFMR estimate.

EP, 08, 202007250315, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1820N, 14590W, , 1, 86, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , E, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
EP, 08, 202007250315, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1820N, 14590W, , 1, 86, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , E, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
EP, 08, 202007250315, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1820N, 14590W, , 1, 86, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , E, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I quite like going into the murky, silty depths of paleotempestology when pondering intense tropical cyclones; it might be because palaeontology and meteorology are my great interests in life, but there's something about looking for geological evidence of unreported historic or even prehistoric hurricanes that might make even the Labor Day Hurricane look banal (not that there is evidence so specific, or at least not yet, but the search itself, and the highly speculative nature of estimating landfalling intensity, is tantalising) that massively appeals to me.

Take, for example, this study, indicating a hurricane far more powerful than Hurricane Hattie (and six other paleotempestologically indicated hurricanes approximately equivalent to Hattie in intensity i.e. Category 4-5, which is what makes this ancient freak stand out so much) made landfall in Belize before 1500.

http://www.oceanography.lsu.edu/liu/pal ... r_2008.pdf

I have to wonder how many of these intense storms passed into the realm of oral history and myth. After all, the great 1700 earthquake of the Pacific Northwest was first heard about by scientists studying indigenous legends, which lead to paleoseismic investigations of the shoreline that found the layers of sand deposited by the tsunamis.

As a kid in elementary school, I read a book of Mayan mythology, but the only story that stuck with me from it was a legend about the storm god Hurakan (you know, the one hurricanes are named after). Hurakan put the corn god through three trials, a room full of flying arrows, a room full of fire, and some other trial I don't remember. When the corn god managed to survive the trials, Hurakan promised he would always ensure there was enough rain for the corn crop to grow, as a sort of admission of the corn god's worth.

Given the article mentions how much intense hurricanes would have affected the productivity of corn fields in the Mayan civilization...

[1900hurricane]

:uarrow: Interestingly, SMAP captured Douglas at around the same time (0315Z) and measured a very similar max wind of 98 kt (or 86 kt 10-minute). It is quite amazing to see both instruments being so close to the SFMR estimate.

EP, 08, 202007250315, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1820N, 14590W, , 1, 86, 1, , , , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , E, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
EP, 08, 202007250315, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1820N, 14590W, , 1, 86, 1, , , , 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , E, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained
EP, 08, 202007250315, 30, SMAP, IR, , 1820N, 14590W, , 1, 86, 1, , , , 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, , , , , 1, 0, , E, NASA, RSS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, max. wind is 10 minute sustained

SMAP also got a few more hit in over the following couple days which continued to line up well with recon data. Not a bad few days for satellite based remote sensing and estimation!

[HurricaneEdouard]

Not sure if it's been posted here before, but thought some might like to read this unofficial reanalysis of the most powerful tropical cyclones, using the most up-to-date (as of 2017) version of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (unlike previous unofficial reanalyses, which either compared apples-to-apples but used older versions that no longer allow for comparisons to Patricia or Haiyan, or simply compared apples-to-oranges), as well as compensating for several biases (such as latitude and eye size): https://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/article/145/3/971/103374/Reprocessing-the-Most-Intense-Historical-Tropical Click on the PDF button to read the whole thing!

The reanalysis' final calibrated ADT rankings:

1 Patricia (2015) 8.4 182 876
2 Haiyan (2013) 8.2 176 878
3 Tip (1979) 8.1 173 873
3 Gay (1992) 8.1 173 883
5 Gilbert (1988) 8.0 170 887
5 Yuri (1991) 8.0 170 887
5 Nida (2009) 8.0 170 892
8 Linda (1997) 7.9 167 884
8 Allen (1980) 7.9 167 886
8 Vanessa (1984) 7.9 167 886
8 Wilma (2005) 7.9 167 888
8 Angela (1995) 7.9 167 889

Note that this reanalysis retains Tip as having the lowest minimum pressure (although it underestimates it by 3mb), although Patricia and Haiyan beat it for windspeed! I am faintly thrilled Gilbert was analysed so high; I always thought Gilbert peaked in between recon passes (888mb, 889mb six hours later) - the original 885mb the NHC scrapped in post-season analysis was probably closer to its true peak - and always thought its satellite presentation was the most beautiful and powerful-looking I'd ever seen, alongside Haiyan and Tip. Nice to know there's an objective satellite analysis to support that subjective observation!

[HurricaneEnzo]

Not sure if it's been posted here before, but thought some might like to read this unofficial reanalysis of the most powerful tropical cyclones, using the most up-to-date (as of 2017) version of the Advanced Dvorak Technique (unlike previous unofficial reanalyses, which either compared apples-to-apples but used older versions that no longer allow for comparisons to Patricia or Haiyan, or simply compared apples-to-oranges), as well as compensating for several biases (such as latitude and eye size): https://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/article/145/3/971/103374/Reprocessing-the-Most-Intense-Historical-Tropical Click on the PDF button to read the whole thing!

The reanalysis' final calibrated ADT rankings:

1 Patricia (2015) 8.4 182 876
2 Haiyan (2013) 8.2 176 878
3 Tip (1979) 8.1 173 873
3 Gay (1992) 8.1 173 883
5 Gilbert (1988) 8.0 170 887
5 Yuri (1991) 8.0 170 887
5 Nida (2009) 8.0 170 892
8 Linda (1997) 7.9 167 884
8 Allen (1980) 7.9 167 886
8 Vanessa (1984) 7.9 167 886
8 Wilma (2005) 7.9 167 888
8 Angela (1995) 7.9 167 889

Note that this reanalysis retains Tip as having the lowest minimum pressure (although it underestimates it by 3mb), although Patricia and Haiyan beat it for windspeed! I am faintly thrilled Gilbert was analysed so high; I always thought Gilbert peaked in between recon passes (888mb, 889mb six hours later) - the original 885mb the NHC scrapped in post-season analysis was probably closer to its true peak - and always thought its satellite presentation was the most beautiful and powerful-looking I'd ever seen, alongside Haiyan and Tip. Nice to know there's an objective satellite analysis to support that subjective observation!

To me from a visual standpoint Gilbert has always been more impressive than Wilma. The only storm in the Atlantic to ever record an 8.0 that is saying something! Nice to see adjustments made so now Wilma is at a 7.9. As this analysis indicates I think Wilma and Gilbert were both neck and neck for strength. Just to me personally Gilbert has the more impressive presentation. Also, WOW at Linda from 97. It was obviously a beast but could have been stronger than I even imagined.