Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

[CrazyC83]

I think 1995 and 1996 in particular could use a significant reanalysis. That was the beginning of the "modern era" and current instruments were in their infancy, hence the flight level wind rules were just being established for USAFR flights.

[FireRat]

I think so too! 1996 likely had Cat 5 Edouard, and Hortense possibly was a little stronger at peak too.
In 1995, Luis might have been a tad stronger at peak as well.

I can imagine the ACE for these seasons, especially 1996, might get bumped up after reanalysis.

95-96 was also the start of the multi-decadal active era, "modern era" indeed!

[aspen]

Is there an archive of Dvorak imagery for Atlantic and EPac storms from 1980-2010? I’m curious to see what some of the high-end Cat 4s of them 90s (Luis, Floyd, Lenny, etc) looked like via Dvorak and if any of them could’ve been low-end Cat 5s.

[J_J99]

Im curious about Opal.... it had a 916 mb pressure, incredibly low for just a Category 4 hurricane. They also measured 152 kts at the 700 mb FL right after they measured 916 mb. Opal was an odd hurricane with very widespread winds but a very small eye and area of maximum winds. I think it is possible Opal could have briefly attained category 5 status.

[Chris90]

Im curious about Opal.... it had a 916 mb pressure, incredibly low for just a Category 4 hurricane. They also measured 152 kts at the 700 mb FL right after they measured 916 mb. Opal was an odd hurricane with very widespread winds but a very small eye and area of maximum winds. I think it is possible Opal could have briefly attained category 5 status.

I think Michael's highest flight level winds were 152kts as well if I remember correctly, and with a very similar pressure, 919mb. Also same time of year and in the gulf, heading in a northerly direction. Taking into account these similarities, I think it would be very reasonable for a reanalysis of Opal to bump peak intensity up to 140kts.

[BYG Jacob]

The monstrosity of 2007, thankfully he made landfall in sparsely populated territory.

[FireRat]

Mean Dean was quite a beast indeed!!
That year was the first one in the 2000s that actually had a Cat 5 Landfall at peak intensity I believe.

[aspen]

Didn’t Felix ‘07 have some absurdly high SFMR readings like Dorian? I think I recall some people bringing that up when Dorian was peaking.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Didn’t Felix ‘07 have some absurdly high SFMR readings like Dorian? I think I recall some people bringing that up when Dorian was peaking.

Yeah supposedly the readings in Felix were contaminated by graupel so they weren't taken into account. They were around 165kts if I'm not mistaken.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[BYG Jacob]

Didn’t Felix ‘07 have some absurdly high SFMR readings like Dorian? I think I recall some people bringing that up when Dorian was peaking.

Yeah supposedly the readings in Felix were contaminated by graupel so they weren't taken into account. They were around 165kts if I'm not mistaken.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

They had to abort that whole flight because of graupel

[Shell Mound]

Some of the possible Cat-5s from the EPAC (images courtesy of ibTRACS):



Norma 1981 (official peak in HURDAT2: 110 kt; my estimate: 150-155 kt)



Daniel 1982 (official peak in HURDAT2: 100 kt; my estimate: 145-150 kt)



John 1982 (official peak in HURDAT2: 100 kt; my estimate: 145-150 kt)


Olivia 1982 (official peak in HURDAT2: 125 kt; my estimate: 145-150 kt)



Henriette 1983 (official peak in HURDAT2: 115 kt; my estimate: 145-150 kt)


Kiko 1983 (official peak in HURDAT2: 125 kt; my estimate: 150-155 kt)


Raymond 1983 (official peak in HURDAT2: 125 kt; my estimate: 145-150 kt)


Tico 1983 (official peak in HURDAT2: 125 kt; my estimate: 145-150 kt)

Tico in particular reminds me of Kenna (2002), Norma of Linda (1997), Olivia of Rick (2009).

[aspen]

That inspired me to look back on some EPac seasons from the 80s, and oh wow, there are a lot of Cat 3 or 4 storms that appear to be significantly underestimated. There’s no pressure reading for any of these storms, making the record for this time even more incomplete. Is there any significant re-analysis going on for the EPac like how there is for the Atlantic?

[BYG Jacob]

Rita was a beast

[FireRat]

Oh yeah, Rita was a monster indeed! You know, she kind of resembles 1996 Edouard in size and overall shape, but with an even more circular cdo. 180 MPH certainly seems accurate for her.

Wow those 1980s EPAC hurricanes were def underestimated. Norma, Olivia, Kiko, Raymond and Tico take the cake IMO. Easy Cat 5's, probably between 140kt and 150kt.

[1900hurricane]

Since it goes beyond the beginning of NRL, I generated a few microwave images of Luis '95, Opal '95, and Edouard '96 as close to peak intensity as I could get.

[FireRat]

Wow, Luis was such a beast! Such a large and well developed eye, kind of reminds me of Floyd '99 or even Irma.

Edouard was smaller, but definitely had quite an intense core. Mid size hurricane that packed quite a punch!

Opal is the smallest.of the three, and her core was so tiny, wow, can't even discern an eye in that imagery, just red pixels! Pin hole eye y'all.

Cool images 1900hurricane, thanks!

[mrbagyo]

It appears the Japanese conducted sea-based weather recon during the WW2 and one of their weather ship S.S. "No. 4 Kaiyo Maru" recorded some incredible surface observation during an intense typhoon in 1944.

Min pressure - 898 hPa
MSW (5 minute ave) - 65m/s (that's 234 kph!)
Eye temp at the surface : 28.4°C (0.8 to 0.9°C higher than the eyewa temp)


Full Article

[aspen]

It appears the Japanese conducted sea-based weather recon during the WW2 and one of their weather ship S.S. "No. 4 Kaiyo Maru" recorded some incredible surface observation during an intense typhoon in 1944.

Min pressure - 898 hPa
MSW (5 minute ave) - 65m/s (that's 234 kph!)
Eye temp at the surface : 28.4°C (0.8 to 0.9°C higher than the eyewa temp)


Full Article


https://i.imgur.com/EsDvaJD.png

125 kt 5-min sustained winds...what would that translate to in 1-min sustained? It’s certainly a Category 5 just based off of the pressure alone.

[FireRat]

Typhoons are definitely the kings of the tropics, 898, gosh! Amazing the ship even survived that one!

As for landfallers, I remember reading once that the typhoon of Nov 1987, Nina I believe, struck the Philippines as a maxed-out Cat 5 and a pressure of 891 mb was measured at landfall. Always was curious about that one and if that reading was indeed real.

Edit: I found some info on this, and yeah it looks like it may have been that low according to the link below:

https://enacademic.com/dic.nsf/enwiki/1874548

[NotoSans]

Typhoons are definitely the kings of the tropics, 898, gosh! Amazing the ship even survived that one!

As for landfallers, I remember reading once that the typhoon of Nov 1987, Nina I believe, struck the Philippines as a maxed-out Cat 5 and a pressure of 891 mb was measured at landfall. Always was curious about that one and if that reading was indeed real.

Edit: I found some info on this, and yeah it looks like it may have been that low according to the link below:

https://enacademic.com/dic.nsf/enwiki/1874548

The 891mb pressure was derived from the Atkinson-Holiday wind-pressure relationship and the 145KT JTWC best track intensity. Lowest pressure recorded in the Philippines at landfall should be 909.5mb for Nina.