Remnents of Typhoon Ioke

[StormScanWx]

Since the other thread now has 25 pages, here is the new one.

Thread #1
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88285

Thread #2
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88798

[Zardoz]

Looks like the Japanese can breathe easy:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[WindRunner]

Looks like the Japanese can breathe easy:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Don't say that yet . . . this thing was supposed to be at 25N at 165E a few days ago . . . and that sure didn't happen. It is more likely to happen this time, however, because Ioke (for now) is weaker and therefore more suceptible to fronts recurving it. While it seems unlikely now that Japan will get any more than some huge waves and maybe some mid to high level clouds, they are far from breathing easy.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like they will sail over to Wake to inspect the damage tomorrow or the following day. This will be VERY interesting.

Link

In addition, an aerial survey is planned, as has been mentioned here.

[JTD]

Were any animals/vegetation on Wake? I guess it'be highly unlikely since it was so small

[MiamiensisWx]

Were any animals/vegetation on Wake? I guess it'be highly unlikely since it was so small

Here's a good site for information on Wake Island, including geography, physical features, flora, fauna, history, and uses...

Link

There are actually several species of plant species on the island (including several endemics as well as widespread Pacific and worldwide species), as well as seabird species nesting, as well as some introduced mammals and (mostly) native (often endemic, in the case of many species) of fauna. It's a pretty diverse island, like all Pacific subtropical, temperate, and tropical islands, regardless of size of the island(s). As for people, the island is used as an aircraft/military base, and other than some residents who work there, there are really no permanent human residents living on Wake.

[Jim Cantore]

Looks like a pretty little island, I hope it didn't get swept clean.

[Epsilon_Fan]

amazing how a small, low island like that can retain a scrub forest (12-20 feet tall) I guess that's where all the creatures go when a storm approaches? Plus many of the flying insects and birds are migratory so they can get the hell outta dodge.

[TampaSteve]

Looks like a pretty little island, I hope it didn't get swept clean.

Yeah...has anyone heard from that "French meteorologist"???

[WindRunner]

Looks like a pretty little island, I hope it didn't get swept clean.

Yeah...has anyone heard from that "French meteorologist"???

Let's not bring that up . . . that part of the AP article was fake, a forgery. Now if everyone can put that behind them and get on with discussing the final days of this former monster, I think it'd be for the better.

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 28.0N 150.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 160NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 042100UTC 31.6N 147.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 051800UTC 36.3N 146.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 061800UTC 43.6N 152.6E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT =

[TampaSteve]

Looks like a pretty little island, I hope it didn't get swept clean.

Yeah...has anyone heard from that "French meteorologist"???

Let's not bring that up . . . that part of the AP article was fake, a forgery. Now if everyone can put that behind them and get on with discussing the final days of this former monster, I think it'd be for the better.

Yeah...I know it was bogus...that's why I put the at the end. Please refer to my post in Ioke thread #2.

I had to come over here and speak up about it becuase it was causing a stir over at Weather Underground. I'm glad you all called LeeJet on it.

BTW...great site!

Cheers,

TampaSteve

[WindRunner]

First off, Welcome to S2K! Glad you're enjoying it!

And second - good . . . I was hoping you knew it was fake, because I am tired of hearing about it. Now back to Ioke . . .

Starting to really take on an ET look . . .

[bostonseminole]

looks like I am off the hook..

[MiamiensisWx]

The eye structure appears to be resembling that of Winnie (1997) (as well as some other storms) after it completed an ERC and slowly began weakening. In that process, it featured a smaller inner eyewall structure and huge (approximately nearly 200-mile wide) outer eyewall structure. Ioke appears to be in a similar process and is now sporting a small inner eyewall structure and very large outer eyewall structure while slowly weakening. Anyone noticing this?

[wxmann_91]

The eye structure appears to be resembling that of Winnie (1997) (as well as some other storms) after it completed an ERC and slowly began weakening. In that process, it featured a smaller inner eyewall structure and huge (approximately nearly 200-mile wide) outer eyewall structure. Ioke appears to be in a similar process and is now sporting a small inner eyewall structure and very large outer eyewall structure while slowly weakening. Anyone noticing this?

Not just Winnie, but many WPAC STY's go thru an ERC and go from small pinhole to huge collossal eye (other recent examples - Paka 1997, Chaba 2004, Dianmu 2004 to an extent, Longwang [don't laugh!] 2005, Songda 2004, etc. We might see one last intensification phase out of Ioke as the outflow gets enhanced by the trough to the north.

BTW, this really isn't an ERC, but dry air entrainment. Okay, sorry my thoughts don't flow, but what I meant is that WPAC typhoons get this look many times.

Ioke was really the classic WPAC STY, in a relatively unfavorable location for one. And now another system seems to be forming to the southeast near the Date Line, and it has good model support. Sorry to get OT, but if that's not a sign of El Nino, I'm not sure what is.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Seems rather Epsilon-esque in physical appearance now. Ioke is a rather elderly storm since she's been around so long... figures she would by suffering from hair-loss (thinning cloud layers, indistinct eye)

[TampaSteve]

Ioke was really the classic WPAC STY, in a relatively unfavorable location for one. And now another system seems to be forming to the southeast near the Date Line, and it has good model support. Sorry to get OT, but if that's not a sign of El Nino, I'm not sure what is.

Sorry to stay OT, but might that explain the slow season so far in the Atlantic? Hopefully it stays that way.

[wxmann_91]

Ioke was really the classic WPAC STY, in a relatively unfavorable location for one. And now another system seems to be forming to the southeast near the Date Line, and it has good model support. Sorry to get OT, but if that's not a sign of El Nino, I'm not sure what is.

Sorry to stay OT, but might that explain the slow season so far in the Atlantic? Hopefully it stays that way.

In some ways, yes. Decreased OLR (outgoing longwave radiation, and it signals increased convection) at the Date Line increases shear in the Atlantic. During an El Nino, environmental pressures at the Date Line are decreased and thus more convection, thus why El Nino supresses Atlantic storms.

[Ptarmigan]

Ioke can't stay powerful forever. Everything that goes up, must come down eventually.