GFS 12z OMG!!!

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Solaris
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GFS 12z OMG!!!

#1 Postby Solaris » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:01 pm

Image

:eek:
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Big-Iguana

#2 Postby Big-Iguana » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:05 pm

Models having a hard time with the Pacific ridge, should iron out in a day.
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#3 Postby smashmode » Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:07 pm

2 models into LA...LA/TX border..

2 models over Galveston.

shessh.
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#4 Postby ohiostorm » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:11 pm

Most of them having her loop too. Not good.
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jkt21787
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#5 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:13 pm

ohiostorm wrote:Most of them having her loop too. Not good.

When the models erratically loop, it is indicative of a stall, which is of course exactly what is forecast.
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#6 Postby Clint_TX » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:22 pm

may stall soon after landfall
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#7 Postby soonertwister » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:26 pm

Big-Iguana wrote:Models having a hard time with the Pacific ridge, should iron out in a day.


How can they NOT iron out in a day? In one day we will be maybe 100-150 miles from landfall. It's really hard to screw up your track too bad at that point.
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#8 Postby soonertwister » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:28 pm

smashmode wrote:2 models into LA...LA/TX border..

2 models over Galveston.

shessh.


I see 4 models going very close to Galveston-Houston. Only 1 into La.
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thetraveler
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Allison did that

#9 Postby thetraveler » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:50 pm

TS Allison in 2001 did that. She came in at Galveston. Moved north to around Lufkin Texas and then reversed course and went south. She dropped 38 inches of rain I believe in a 24 hour period just north of the Ship Channel. Houston hadnt seen flooding like that since 1935. I sure hope that doesnt happen again.
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#10 Postby gabrielle01 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:05 am

From NHC Rita Discussion #22:

RITA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD. RITA IS FORECAST TO THEN ESSENTIALLY STALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS IN THE AREA OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WHERE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY WEAK. THIS SCENARIO POSES A GREAT RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND AND FOR MANY DAYS AFTER LANDFALL.

From NHC Rita Advisory #22

SINCE RITA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.

Is it good idea to escape to NE Texas only to face possible severe inland flooding several days after landfall? Are there better options for evacuations instead of heading north based on this forecast path? Is it time to build Noah's Ark II?
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oneness
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#11 Postby oneness » Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:33 am

I was thinking the same thing yesterday. The general direction of El Paso looks good for evac, I hope most people did not go N and NE.
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Garnetcat5
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#12 Postby Garnetcat5 » Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:54 am

should I keep going W?! I stopped in Temple TX due to my Dad's health...he couldn't go on feet swelled so large....he had to stop and thank God we found a room in the Hilton.....they even have computers for guests to use.....but now I am unsure....
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loon
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#13 Postby loon » Fri Sep 23, 2005 4:08 am

If you have a hotel, and you are all the way up in Temple, stay. You are doing better than alot of the Houston folks. Just ride it out there. The roads are packed, stay. Good luck...


loon (riding it out in Houston)
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ROCK
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#14 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 23, 2005 4:18 am

loon wrote:If you have a hotel, and you are all the way up in Temple, stay. You are doing better than alot of the Houston folks. Just ride it out there. The roads are packed, stay. Good luck...


loon (riding it out in Houston)



spent 18 hours trying to get to San Antonio with 3 cats in the car throwing up, crapping all over the place, a histerical wife and inlaws who are about to drive me nuts..... ...... I turned around and went home..The 18 hours it took to get where I was took me 1 hour to get home......

NWS expects 60 mph sustained at my house with 75 gusts...I have a house built in 2003....sturdy enough....good luck to all who rode it out
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oneness
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#15 Postby oneness » Fri Sep 23, 2005 4:20 am

Garnetcat5 wrote:should I keep going W?! I stopped in Temple TX due to my Dad's health...he couldn't go on feet swelled so large....he had to stop and thank God we found a room in the Hilton.....they even have computers for guests to use.....but now I am unsure....


That's north of Austin, should be far enough away from the intense winds and rain.
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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#16 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Sep 23, 2005 4:23 am

Now I see where the "loon", moniker came from! :lol: Just teasing!!! You be safe over there!!! Can't wait to see your posts after this one passes into the history books!!! Hope you fare well through this baby! :D BIG LOVE TO TEXAS!!!!
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Windy
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#17 Postby Windy » Fri Sep 23, 2005 4:24 am

Man, if those looping scenarios materialize, SOMEONE is going to get rain totals that would make Noah wistfully sigh.
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