New Intensity Forecast Model (HWRF) debuts on June

[cycloneye]

New Intensity Forecast Model



Interesting iinformation about the new intensity computer model that will be available from June.However,intensity forecasts still are a long way to be 100% accurate.Let's see if this new model can bring the % of accurate intensity forecasts close to 100%.

What do our resident pro mets think about this new intensity model? But any member besides the pro mets can comment about this interesting theme.

[windstorm99]

can you post a link of were we could use this model come june.

[x-y-no]

Yes, it'll be interesting to see how this performs.

Do we know if some site (like maybe NCEP) will be posting the model runs?

[cycloneye]

can you post a link of were we could use this model come june.

Dont know yet where it will it may be.Maybe on NCEP but let's see when it comes out.

[cycloneye]

Yes, it'll be interesting to see how this performs.

Do we know if some site (like maybe NCEP) will be posting the model runs?

Maybe there.

[wxman57]

There were a number of papers presented at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference in New Orleans a few months ago on HWRF's progress. HWRF will need a lot of work/tweaking in the coming years. Last I had heard, it was about on par with GFDL through 72 hours but worse beyond then as far as the track forecast. Improving intensity foreasts will require a great deal more data surrounding the core of the hurricane. I wouldn't look for much in 2007, but maybe in another 5-10 years we'll make some measurable improvement.

Here, check out the PowerPoint presentations in session 5 on modeling:

http://www.ofcm.noaa.gov/ihc07/linking_file_ihc07.htm

You'll need the free Microsoft PowerPoint viewer to access the presentations:
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/deta ... layLang=en

[Aric Dunn]

["Yes, it'll be interesting to see how this performs.

Do we know if some site (like maybe NCEP) will be posting the model runs?"]


Here is some useful information on the HWRF
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/WRF/menu.html

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2005/HWRF.html

and more http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/N ... C-HWRF.pdf

I would watch this site to possibly see the HWRF show up! the previous few years they had a hurricane region option maybe they will include the HWRF
http://www.wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_main.php

or even here http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

[JonathanBelles]

The new model is working http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ >>> HUR. Nested is a close up picture. It is on TD 1-E

[x-y-no]

The new model is working http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ >>> HUR. Nested is a close up picture. It is on TD 1-E

All right!

Thanks.

[JonathanBelles]

sure thing.

[caneflyer]

The new model is working http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ >>> HUR. Nested is a close up picture. It is on TD 1-E

Think that is the GFDL, not the HWRF.

[Nimbus]

Here is an interesting article about chaos theory and computer models. The new HWRF model is explained on page three.

Chaos theory and weather modeling

If they ask you to register after reading a while just click the link to log in and enter the userid slashdot (you don't need a password for level 1 access).

The key to the success of the HWRF model is going to be the resolution of the data that it can handle. The new surface scanning radar will help gather local environment data.

For long range forecasts tools like a new quikscat satellite would help supply better resolution. The payback of using more data is not linear. For example you might have to at least double the amount of input data to increase forecast accuracy by even 10 percent for a 36 hour period in an average forecast situation.