Extratropical Storm Chantal: last CHC advisory issued

[Weatherfreak14]

well last advisory, tracking chantal was fun while it lasted and no harm to the US.

[HURAKAN]

Exactly a 24 hr storm, perfect!!!



Please, close the door when you leave!!!

[AnnularCane]

I hate to see you go so soon, little girl, but it was very nice having you here.

I guess now it's time to look for your brother.

[Chacor]

Latest CHC advisory...

WOCN31 CWHX 310300
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 12.30 MIDNIGHT NDT TUESDAY 31 JULY 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT

AT 12.30 PM NDT... TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 43.5 N AND LONGITUDE 59.0 W... ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 90 KM SOUTH EAST OF SABLE ISLAND .

CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 28 KNOTS... 52 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 998 MB.

SABLE ISLAND HAS REPORTED 96.5 MM OF RAIN UP TO 2 ZULU. MARIAN
BRIDGE 12 HOUR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION DEPICTION SHOW AMOUNTS
OFFSHORE TO BE 50-75 MM. GANDER WEATHER OFFICE HAS AMENDED
THE PUBLIC TO INCLUDE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 100 MM FOR THE BURIN
AVALON PENISULAS.

00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPECTED CIRCULATION AROUND CHANTAL
WITH ONE FLOATING BOUY INDICATING THAT A 999 MB ANALYSED
PRESSURE IS JUSTIFIED. QUICKSCAT INDICATED ONE OR TWO BARBS
OF 50 KNOTS WITH 15 NM WEST OF CHANTALS POSITION. SHE IS MOVING
OVER COLDER WATER NOW SO THIS STRONG WIND WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED. CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DIMINISH AROUND CHANTAL AND
THIS IS GOOD EVIDENCE OF HER WEAKENING.

QUICKSCAT PASS GAVE GOOD 22Z POSITION AND SHOWS THAT CHANTAL
IS ON THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER SHE IS MOVING ABOUT
90 MINUTES SLOWER THAN FORECAST. THIS WOULD PUT ITS 12 ZULU
WEDNESDAY POSITION AROUND 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE.
HOWEVER.. WITH NEW NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND NEW UPPER AIR DATA
COMING IN.. OTHER TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE REQUIRED
AND THIS WILL BE SHOWN ON THE 6 ZULU FORECAST.

MIAMI HAS ADVISED US THAT THEIR 00Z MESSAGE WILL BE THE LAST ON
CHANTAL. OF COURSE THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM UNTIL SHE HAS WELL MOVED AWAY
FROM OUR CANADIAN WATERS.

END MC

[Chacor]

WOCN31 CWHX 010600 CCA
POST TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT
WEDNESDAY 01 AUGUST 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

... CHANTAL TO BRUSH BY CAPE RACE THIS MORNING...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... POST TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.5 N AND LONGITUDE 57.0 W... ABOUT 130 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 245 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 997 MB. CHANTAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
28 KNOTS... 52 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 01 3.00 AM 44.5N 57.0W 997 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 01 9.00 AM 46.2N 54.0W 996 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 01 3.00 PM 48.8N 50.0W 995 45 74 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 01 9.00 PM 52.0N 45.0W 990 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 02 3.00 AM 53.8N 42.0W 983 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 02 9.00 AM 55.5N 39.0W 974 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 02 3.00 PM 56.8N 35.5W 970 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING FOR AVALON AND BURIN PENISULA FOR AMOUNTS
UP TO 100 MM. WIND GUSTS TO 70 KM/H FORECAST FOR THE AVALON.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS WINDING DOWN FOR MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT. GALE
WARNINGS BEING EXTENDED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS TO INCLUDE FUNK
ISLAND BANK AND PARTS OF THE BELLE ISLE BANK. SEE MARINE
FORECASTS FQCN13 CWHX AND FQCN13 CYQX FOR EXACT DETAILS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
3Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WOULD PUT CHANTAL AS 997 MB LOW BETWEEN
BOUY 44141 AND SABLE ISLAND. SOME CONVECTION POPPING UP NEAR THE
VICINITY OF CHANTAL SO EXACT CENTRE OF CIRCULATION DIFFICULT
TO EYE BALL FOR 6Z POSITION.

B. PROGNOSTIC
WE MAINTAIN THE SAME TRACK AS PREVIOUS BUT SLOW CHANTAL DOWN AS
DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS MESSAGE. CHANTAL STILL SHOWING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTER WITH CONVECTION APPEARING AROUND HER CENTRE BUT SHE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER HENCE WEAKENS TO ITS EXTRA-
TRPOICAL STATUS. THE MAIN SHIELD OF CLOUD AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION
HAS DETACHED AND MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW IMPINGING UPON SOUTH
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

IT IS REFRESHING TO SEE THAT THE CANADIAN GEM IS HANDLING POSITION..
STRENGTH AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS QUITE WELL IN ITS 00Z RUN.
AS A RESULT THIS RUN OF THE GEM IS USEFUL FOR MODELLING OF MARINE
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. AS CHANTAL HEADS OUT TO THE OPEN
SEA.. SHE BECOMES A MAJOR NORTH ATLANTIC STORM.

WORRY ABOUT SECOND TROPICAL LIKE CENTRE SHOWN ON 23Z QUICKSCAT
PASS AT 34N 72W. NO GALES INDICATED ON QUICKSCAT OR ON NEARBY SHIP
REPORTS OR BOUYS. MIAMI WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONVECTION ON THIS
ONE BEFORE MESSAGING. WE MAKE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MARITIME MARINE SYNOPSIS. WE
PREDICT 15-20 KNOTS WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIODS OVER
THE LAURENTIAN FAN.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 100MM FOR AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS STILL
LOOK ON THE MARK. FINAL TALLY FOR SABLE ISLAND WAS 97.0MM
FROM CHANTAL. SATELLITE ENHANCEMENTS ARE VERY BRIGHT AROUND
HARBOUR BRETON BUT HOLLYROOD RADAR SHOWS MAX REFLECTIVITY IN
PLACENTIA BAY. MUST WAIT AND SEE IF A SECOND BATCH OF HEAVY
RAIN SHOWS UP IN HARBOUR BRETON.

D. MARINE WEATHER
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.. QUICKSCAT PICKED UP A COUPLE
OF 50KT BARBS. BOUY 44141 IS BLOWING HARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH GUSTS TO 46 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5.7 METRES.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
01/06Z 130 250 120 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/12Z 150 360 180 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
01/18Z 180 420 250 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
02/00Z 210 420 250 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
02/06Z 250 360 250 250 120 120 120 120 0 0 0 0
02/12Z 280 360 280 280 150 150 150 150 0 0 0 0
02/18Z 280 360 280 280 150 150 150 150 0 0 0 0

END MC

[Chacor]

WOCN31 CWHX 010900
POST-TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6.30 AM NDT WEDNESDAY 01 AUGUST 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT

AT 6.30 AM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.3 N AND LONGITUDE 55.5 W... ABOUT 130 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 245 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE .

CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 28 KNOTS... 52 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 993 MB.

THE 6Z OBSERVATION FOR BOUY 44139 WAS MISSING BUT THERE WAS
FREE FLOATING BOUY 44905 NEARBY AT 6Z SHOWING A PRESSURE OF
994.2 MB. AT 7Z BOUY 44139 HAD ALREADY SNAPPED TO THE NORTHWEST
GUSTING TO 34 KNOTS. THIS PUTS CHANTAL AT LEAST AN HOUR SLOWER AND
10 NM SOUTH OF TRACK. THE DEPTH OF CHANTAL IS DISTURBING.. WE HAD
FORECAST A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997MB WHEREAS THE 6Z OBS WOULD
PUT IT AT 993MB. WITH A DEEPER LOW ONE SHOULD EXPECT CHANTAL
TO MOVE SOMEWHAT NORTH OF TRACK CONTRARY TO THE OBSERVATION.
FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE THE TRACK THE SAME BUT SLOW THE POSITION
DOWN BY AN HOUR. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 12Z FORECAST.

CONVECTION HAS MOVED NORTH OF CHANTAL BUT CIRCULATION CENTRE
IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT AS SHE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES.
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS INCREASING OVER PLACENTIA BAY. ARGENTIA
IS UP TO 89.2MM AT 8Z AS RADAR SHOWS AN UNRELENTING STREAM
OF HIGH REFLECTIVITIES TRAINING OVER THE AREA. THE GANDER
WEATHER OFFICE HAS PUT OUT 30 TO 50 MM OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AVALON AND BURIN PENINSULAS. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO WHAT
HAS ALREADY FALLEN..SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT UP TO 140 MM OF
STORM TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED.

PUBLIC AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THEIR REGION BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

END MC

(140 mm = 5.5 inches)

[Chacor]

WOCN31 CWHX 011500
POST-TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED
BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 12.30 PM
NDT WEDNESDAY 01 AUGUST 2007.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 PM NDT

AT 12.30 PM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 47.2 N AND LONGITUDE 52.9 W... ABOUT 25 NAUTICAL MILES OR
45 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ST JOHNS.

CHANTAL IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 36 KNOTS... 67 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H..
MOSTLY OFFSHORE..AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 990 MB.

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
AUG 01 12.30 PM 47.2N 52.9W 990 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 01 3.30 PM 48.5N 51.1W 989 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 01 9.30 PM 51.3N 46.6W 985 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 02 3.30 AM 53.4N 42.6W 982 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 02 9.30 AM 55.3N 38.6W 974 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

POST-TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL HAS DUMPED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER
THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS MORNING. WHITBOURNE REPORTED 150 MM
(6 INCHES) OF RAIN. ST JOHNS HAS RECEIVED ABOUT 90 MM. FLOODING HAS
BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE AVALON WITH ROAD WASHOUTS AND LOW-LYING
ROADWAYS INUNDATED WITH WATER. THE LAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXITING
THE NORTH PART OF THE AVALON AT BULLETIN ISSUE TIME.

THE CENTRE OF THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE PASSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AVALON PENINSULA. WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT MORE
INFORMATION LATER TO PIN-DOWN THE "LANDFALL" LOCATION. WEATHER IS
NOW IMPROVING DRAMATICALLY OVER THE REGION. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE AVALON THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNNY PERIODS.

END FOGARTY/ROUSSEL

[Coredesat]

WOCN31 CWHX 012100
POST-TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL INTERMEDIATE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED
BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6.30 PM NDT
WEDNESDAY 01 AUGUST 2007.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INFORMATION STATEMENT BY THE CHC ON THIS
STORM.

AT 6.30 PM NDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 49.8 N AND LONGITUDE 48.0 W...ABOUT 230 NAUTICAL MILES OR
425 KM NORTHEAST OF ST JOHNS.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 38 KNOTS...70 KM/H.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS...83 KM/H AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 987 MB.

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
NDT MB KTS KMH
AUG 01 6.30 PM 49.8N 48.0W 987 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 01 9.30 PM 51.0N 45.6W 986 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 02 3.30 AM 52.9N 42.2W 982 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 02 9.30 AM 55.1N 38.5W 977 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 02 3.30 PM 57.9N 34.5W 972 60 111 POST-TROPICAL

THE CENTRE OF THE STORM IS NOW NEAR THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FUNK
ISLAND BANK MARINE DISTRICT. MAXIMUM WINDS WITH THE STORM ARE NEAR
45 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRE. GALES FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BANKS.

POST-TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AVALON
BURIN AND BONAVISTA PENINSULAS WITH RECORD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
AVALON. DOWNPOURS CAUSED ROAD WASHOUTS IN MANY COMMUNITIES ON THE
AVALON. THE GREATEST MEASURED RAINFALL RATE WAS 43 MM IN ONE HOUR AT
ST. JOHN'S WEST. STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 69 KM/H WERE OBSERVED AT
CAPE RACE AND UNOFFICALLY 88 KM/H AT CAPE PINE ON THE SOUTHERN
AVALON NEAR WHERE THE CENTRE OF THE STORM MADE LANDFALL.

HERE IS A RECAP OF THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL:

STATION .............. RAINFALL
ST. JOHN'S AIRPORT ... 96.6 MM
ST. JOHN'S WEST ...... 93.2 MM
ARGENTIA ............. 89.9 MM
WHITBOURNE ........... 150.0 MM
CAPE RACE ............ 28.3 MM
BONAVISTA ............ 28.0 MM
ST. LAWRENCE ......... 55.2 MM

FOR ST. JOHN'S THIS WAS THE HEAVIEST SUMMER RAINFALL SINCE THAT FROM
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IN SEPTEMBER 2001 WHICH PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IN THE CITY AS WELL..DROPPING NEAR 100 MM (4 INCHES)
OF RAIN.

MAXIMUM SIG WAVES WERE NEAR 6 METRES OVER OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHEST
WINDS FROM THE CANADIAN BUOY NETWORK WERE FROM BUOY 44141 OVER
LAURENTIAN FAN AT 46 KNOTS. WINDS WERE NEAR 60 KNOTS AT THE
ANEMOMETER LEVEL ON THE HIBERNIA OIL RIGS.

END/FOGARTY

[Aquawind]

FOR ST. JOHN'S THIS WAS THE HEAVIEST SUMMER RAINFALL SINCE THAT FROM
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IN SEPTEMBER 2001 WHICH PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IN THE CITY AS WELL..DROPPING NEAR 100 MM (4 INCHES)
OF RAIN.

Interesting notation..Gabby brought the strom surge further inland than any storm since in my neighborhood. She was a troublemaker alrighty..

[Category 5]

FOR ST. JOHN'S THIS WAS THE HEAVIEST SUMMER RAINFALL SINCE THAT FROM
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IN SEPTEMBER 2001 WHICH PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IN THE CITY AS WELL..DROPPING NEAR 100 MM (4 INCHES)
OF RAIN.

Interesting notation..Gabby brought the strom surge further inland than any storm since in my neighborhood. She was a troublemaker alrighty..

Gabby I remember JUST missed Hurricane strength too.

[HurricaneRobert]

Gabrielle was a category 1 hurricane.