Fact789's Blog-Associates Degree and Summer Plans

[JonathanBelles]

Entry #21-8/11/07

Weather

Weather was ok today. It was HOT again once today. 107-110 in the sun today. Has some rain early afternoon.

Happenings
Today I got up at 9 and went to the mall, office depot, staples, kmart, and sweetbay with my sister. She wanted ups and I wanted a new cell phone case. My parents wanted a new shredder and some groceries. I got another We want to come here for every reason in the book letters today from New College. Yet another college that I cant go to. I wanted to mow the yard today, but it was too blasted hot. I might just mow in the rain tomorrow . Possibly a TC this week YAY!!!
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I may or may not be anywhere except TT tomorrow depending on pre-dean. I don't know if I will do an entry tomorrow.

[JonathanBelles]

I am waiting until at least 11 to see what the NHC says to do a forecast.

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 081207

90L is nearing Tropical Depression strength this evening. The Carib wave is also developing very slowly. Both areas are under bear watches.



East Atlantic...Invest 90L...This area is under a Bear Watch. This area is slightly under Tropical Depression Strength. T-numbers and satellite bring it ever so slightly closer to TD strength. At this point I believe 90l may skirt the southern sides of the Caribbean islands and then either enter the GOM or make land fall in Central America. I believe it will be a Tropical Storm by Wednesday morning. Shear is still low in the short term, but may be an issue in the coming days. Water temps are still marginal for development. I still see this being a problem on the Gulf coast in a week or so as it is moving 20-25 mph.

East and Central Caribbean...This area is also under a bear watch. This system will be very, very slow to develop if at all. I am still not as worried with this system as I am with 90L. Shear is low, but Temps are high. Organization still is not happening. I'm ashamed to say that I don't know why this isn't developing faster. If somebody could tell me why, it would be greatly appreciated.

Chances for Tropical Depression Development in next 3 days: 99%
Chances for Tropical Storm Development in the Next 3 days: 40%
Possibility of hurricane development in the next 3 days:5%
US threat of Tropical development in next 24%: 1%

Amateur Forecaster Jonathan-Fact789

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 081307

Today 90L became Tropical Depression 04 and will likely be come Tropical Storm Dean tomorrow. The Eastern Carib low became Invest 91L. In a special mention tonight outside of the Atlantic is category three Major Hurricane Flossie that is nearing Hawaii.




***Note: the above images are a few hours old.

East Atlantic...Tropical Depression 04...This area is now under Serious Advisory Mode and will be posted in TT tomorrow. It is now very close to Tropical Storm Strength. It no longer holds as much of an egg like shape as it did earlier. I have shifted my forecast up to grazing the northern coasts of the Lesser Antilles. Depending on a ridge, Dean at the time could turn as far away as grazing the North Carolina coast or it may not turn and hit Florida. I believe this will be a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning and a hurricane by Thursday. Shear is low and will remain low until the Islands where shear picks up. Water temps are warm enough for intensification. Those in the Eastern Lesser Antilles should be preparing for a hit.

Eastern Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico...Invest 91L....This area is under a bear watch. This area will be investigated by Hurricane Hunters tomorrow. 91L is nearing Tropical Depression strength or possibly even Tropical Storm strength. It is not very organized, but is organizing slowly. Shear is quite high and is limiting development. Water temperatures are very warm and do support a quick growth in intensity.

Central Pacific....Category Three Major Hurricane Flossie...This area is under Serious Advisory Mode and will be posted in TT tomorrow. The eye of Flossie is not as clear as it was earlier in the day. It is moving too close to Hawaii for comfort. There is an Active Hurricane Watch for the Big Island of Hawaii. There is a small possibility of hurricane force wind impacting Hawaii. Tropical Storm force winds will be impacting much of Hawaii. Shear is increasing ahead of Flossie and it is already feeling those affects. Water temps are slightly warmer ahead of Flossie. I expect a slow decrease in intensity due to the shear.

Chances for Tropical Depression Development in next 3 days other than current storms: 60%
Chances for Tropical Storm Development in the Next 3 days: 95%
Possibility of hurricane development in the next 3 days:50%
US threat of Tropical development in next 24 hours: 1%

Amateur Forecaster Jonathan-Fact789

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 081407

Today Tropical Storm Dean Formed and is developing. Invest 91L became Tropical Depression 5. TD5 is developing faster than Dean.



Tropical Storm Dean has been moved to TT.

Central Gulf of Mexico...Tropical Depression 05....This area is now under Serious Advisory Mode and will be posted in TT tomorrow. TD5 is forecast to move into southern Texas as a TS. There is a Tropical Storm watch for most of coastal Texas. TD5 is quickly strengthening toward Tropical Storm Erin Strength. Shear is forecast to increase ahead of TD5, but the warm waters will allow TD5 to develop. Tropical Storm Force winds should impact the area around Corpus Christi. Those in Texas and Louisiana should be preparing.

Chances for Tropical Depression Development in next 3 days other than current storms: 0%
Chances for Tropical Storm Development in the Next 3 days: 95%
Possibility of hurricane development in the next 3 days:50%
US threat of Tropical development in next 24 hours: 80%

Amateur Forecaster Jonathan-Fact789

[JonathanBelles]

Entry #22-8/25/07

Weather
Story of my life. The rest of th estate gets a gully washer, me I get 4 drops! lol. 60% and nothing today. Lots of clouds, but no rain.

Happenings
I did a little homework today and I mowed both yards. Today was a laid back Saturday.

[Cyclone1]

Entry #22-8/25/07

Weather
Story of my life. The rest of th estate gets a gully washer, me I get 4 drops! lol. 60% and nothing today. Lots of clouds, but no rain.

Happenings
I did a little homework today and I mowed both yards. Today was a laid back Saturday.

I was in the gully washer portion. Muhuhahaha and such...

[JonathanBelles]

Entry #22-8/25/07

Weather
There is an awesome lightning show going on outside to my west. Yet again it came from my east and went just barely south of me!

Forecasts
I will begin forecasts again for the 2-3 systems tomorrow, (If I can remember )

Happenings
Today was a very long, busy day, but still fun. I woke up first at 5a went outside to look if the eclipse had started yet, it hadnt too much. I went back to bed and set my alarm for 5:30. At that time the eclipse wasnt yet very impressive. I went back to bed until quarter of and then got up. I watched the eclipse for about an hour. At the same time I was doing Composition HW. After that I continued with the comp and eventually moved over to the ANGEL network (grading/attendance/online classes/class supplements) to check to make sure every thing was copestetic. I printed off some slides that would be used for my classes today. I also organized my notebook and then left for SPC at 7:30. I fell asleep again in Comp, this time with my best friend Laura (dont take that the wrong way!) Then I went to (stupid) math. I am at least a week ahead of everyone and plan to be a month ahead by the end of next week. This course is pretty much review for me. Then I went to Macroeconomics where I used the slides. That class is also pretty boring. After that I got picked up and went to the HS for an interact meeting. I had to be there early as I am a 2nd year member and I know how everything works. Then I left with another friends, Julie, and went to McDonald's. I spent $25 almost all of it on me hehe. The I went back for the real meeting at 1:30p. This is where it got fun. Between this time and 2:30 I was supposed to be in 3-4 places at once. That didnt happen. Toward the end of the meeting, Julie and I went to another teacher to layout plans to go during one of her AP classes to talk to the students. She wasn't there :!( Then I went across the hall to see a student teacher-now teacher that I had last year. He was there. Then I went to go see the mean yearbook lady, Mrs. Brock (Mrs. Blahck) she wasnt there. So then I went back to the original teacher to catch him up with my journey in college. He, Kyle Eckman, was the one who always pushed me to go to college. After that I came home and took a nap. Then I got up 45 mins later and started working on homework and eating. This is what I have been doing since 4:30!
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In my situation, would you try to stand out in HS, in College, both, or neither?

[DanKellFla]

Fact, take it from someone who has been there. You need this:
http://www.intellectualwhores.com/masterladder.html

Stand out in whatever situation brings you the most schalorship money.

[JonathanBelles]

Fact, take it from someone who has been there. You need this:
http://www.intellectualwhores.com/masterladder.html

Stand out in whatever situation brings you the most schalorship money.

HAR HAR HAR!!! lol

[JonathanBelles]

Entry #24-8/29/07

Weather
Today was a normal summer day. High in the mid 90's and finally a moderate thunderstorm that didnt go around me. I'm not sure how much I got because it isnt listed on the 2 day history.

Forecasts
Im going to wait until tomorrow after noon to do a forecast because of the reason listed below.

Happenings
Today I woke up late (planned) ate and left for the college. Today was a pretty normal day. I picked up another paper due at the end of the semester. lol That makes 3 (+an EC paper.) Tomorrow is gonna be another busy day. After school there is a Welcome Back Bash at 12:05p and Ill likely be there with numerous people for a few hours. Right now I feel like my face is leaking. My eyes are leaking and my nose is running like a fausset. GAH!

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 083007

Who turned on the tropics switch? Currently there are three areas of invest. One in each of the three major parts of the basin, Northern Atlantic, Southern Atlantic, and the BOC (gom). They are listed in numerical order instead of importance tonight.



Southwestern North Atlantic...Invest 94L...This area is under a Bear Watch. This area is slightly under Tropical Depression Strength. T-numbers have brought it a little closer to TD strength. 94L looks like it will take a track similar to Dean, without as much intensity. At this point the center does not look like it is exposed. I believe we may have TD6 by morning and Felix by Saturday. Shear looks like it will increase in 94L's path. Water temps are plenty warm ahead of 94L. Slow development is possible with this system. Dry air is also a problem with this system.

West Central Atlantic...Invest 96L...This area is under a Bear Watch. The closed center looks to be partly exposed. Models take this system to the NE into warmer water for a short time and relatively low shear. Development with this system will be slow until the center is covered. When the center is covered it could become a TD and possibly Gabrielle. A front is approaching and limiting this system's time for development.

Bay of Campeche...Invest 97L...This area is only under a Blob Watch because it is soon to run aground. This system in my amateur eyes does not look like it has a LLC and quickscat supports that. This system will not have time to develop. Land is the major problem with this system.

Chances for Tropical Depression Development in next 3 days other than current storms: 75%
Chances for Tropical Storm Development in the Next 3 days: 30%
Possibility of hurricane development in the next 3 days:0%
US threat of Tropical development in next 24 hours: 1%


Amateur Forecaster Jonathan-Fact789
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Normal blog coming in the next hour...

[JonathanBelles]

Entry #25-8/30/07

Weather
It looks like a line of thunderstorms is moving my way at the current time. No rain thus far today.

Happenings
Today was an average day with the exception of the SPC welcome back bash. They had ok food, bad music, and bad entertainment. They had a balloon man for entertainment! :/

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 090807

Activity is starting to rev up again. Gabrielle looks to be improving after a hard night. A large vigorous wave has continued to develop over the East Atlantic. A surface trough has brought weather to the S GOM/NCarib. A small area of cloudiness has persisted to the E of the Leewards.




Western North Atlantic...Nearing the Carolinas...Tropical Storm Gabrielle. This area would be in Serious Advisory Mode, but will be modified tomorrow to a new definition. Gabrielle is slowly geting better organized. It is weebling and wobbling to and fro toward the Carolina coast line. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the ENC coast including Cape Hatteras. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the SEVA coastline. Those in these areas should prepare for a slow moving TS and should not have to evacuate unless in an easily flooded or surge prone area. Gabrielle should recurve as it makes landfall in the barrier islands of NC back out to sea. It may effect the Eastern Canadian coast midweek. I would expect tropical storm force winds near the coast of NC and SEVA. Rainfall amounts may reach 2-5" along the coastal regions of NC. Storm Surge may max out in the southern barrier islands of NC at 5'. Tropical Storm force winds should approach coastal areas in the coming few hours. The rain should begin anytime.
Gabrielle is not very well organized, but it could strengthen in minor amounts to 50 mph. I dont expect much more organization with this system. ADT does signify that Gabby is strengthening and the weakening flag is back off. I think recon tonight will be critical in finding the highest winds in the storm. I estimate the storm to be 45 mph at this time, NHC says 40 mph.

Eastern North Atlantic...Tropical Wave...This area is under a Bear Watch. This area has change little in organization, but I expect this to change in the coming days. This wave may very well become Humberto by the end of the week. This wave is moving west at 15mph. Shear is high, but Water temperatures are also high.

Southern GOM/Northern Caribbean...Surface Trough...This area is under a Blob Watch. This has no organization and only an ULL. I expect this area to meander around. It might not do a whole lot until and if shear lets up.

Western Atlantic...Blob...No watches. This has no organization, but is of note because of the possibility of organization later.

Chances for Tropical Storm Development in the Next 3 days: 5%
Possibility of hurricane development in the next 3 days: 1%
US threat of Tropical development in next 24%: 99%

[JonathanBelles]

***Update***
--Tropical Storm Gabrielle is now under a wobble watch.
--The GOM system is now under a Bear Watch and is called 90L now.

[JonathanBelles]

I am not going to make a forecast right now, but I did mention the Serious Advisory Mode was getting a new definition, here it is:

Serious Advisory Mode: Now simply means that this is the storm of most concern, not that it will be moved to ASTT. I would have liked to make this the definition, but moving the advisories back to this page will be an unneeded task for the Moderators. From now on this advisory mode will come with a detailed forecast path.

expect a weather/happenings update tonight and a forecast tomorrow unless something changes.
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Updates
-Gabrielle is no longer under serious advisory mode, but is now under a bare watch The wobble watch has been dropped.
-ex-90L is still under a Blob Watch
-91L is under a Bear Watch and now Serious Advisory Mode under its new terms.
-ex92L is now under a Blob Watch.
-The wave behind 91L needs to be watched for development.

[JonathanBelles]

Entry #26-9/10/07

Weather
What a busted day. 70% rain chances and not a drop. Plenty of clouds, not a drop.

Happenings
A lot has happened in the last few weeks. College is going good. The only drawback to the college I am going to is the lack of the social atmosphere. I have taken two tests, both excellent-Macroeconomics-30/30 and College Algebra 97%. I have a report due Thursday that I am almost all the way done with. I have a draft that was supposed to be due tomorrow that was pushed back a week that I rushed to get done over the weekend (smacks professor) and It was assigned last Thursday, so for one I wasn't procrastinating. Ive been to a couple events at the college, all of which lacked the fun factor I have been way more active at Dixie that I thought that I would. I go to the Interact meetings on Tuesdays and recycle and visit teachers on Friday ( my off day) Tuesdays are by far my busiest days. That day usually ends up giving me tons of errands to do. Tomorrow just happens to by 9/11 on a tuesday. I m doing an announcement as a part of interact tomorrow after school.

I may just be doing a forecast tonight anyway since I am very bored.

[JonathanBelles]

Entry #27-9/11/07

Weather
Today was another bust in the weather department. Not a drop.

Happenings
I've been running since 5a this morning and will be going to bed soon. I am still working on two essays and numerous other things on my agenda. I was at Dixie from 1:30 until 4 due to interact. I did homework on and off all day. I am planning a fast forward on Friday. This means that I will be working as fast and as efficient as possible for as long as possible with few breaks. I havent done a fast forward since 7th grade because it is a little exhausting. I will be absent from the board and from chat if I go through with this. If I do this, I will be going from nearly on track to WAY ahead of schedule. I would plan on working from 8a-8p with 4 breaks. Im gonna try to make this work. Tomorrow I will have a poignant moment and likely a forecast.

[JonathanBelles]

Updates (full forecast at 5:30-6:30)

TD 9 is under Serious Advisory Mode (SAM) under its new terms. It is also under a wobble watch, Tropical Storm Warning, TS watch.
TD 8 is under a secondary SAM.

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 091207

Today TD's 8 and 9 developed and TD 9 developed into Humberto.






Extreme northwestern GOM...Nearing Texas...Tropical Storm Humberto...This is under Serious Advisory Mode. Humberto is getting better organized, but is running out of water. This is a VERy slow moving system. Rain fall is going to be the biggest issue with Humberto...up to 10" possible because of the slow movement. I'd say winds are around 55 mph, NHC says 50. TS winds are already impacting the coast line of TX. I expect land fall tomorrow morning between 4am and 11am. I forecast a generally wobbly path toward the NE. This storm is under a wobble watch and TS warning from Port O'Connor, TX to Intercoastal City, LA. Those in this area and inland ETX/LA/and the Deep south should be preparing for a moderate TS or at least VERY heavy rain.

South central north Atlantic...Tropical Depression Eight...This is under a Secondary Serious Advisory Mode. I expect a path just north of the Leewards..possibly just north of PR on Tuesday. I think this has a possibilty to become a hurricane in the coming days. I think this might cause some problems for Florida in the long term. Those in the northern antillles and the Bahamas/Florida may want to keep this storm in the back of their minds. I do think this is a TS right now, but I will not argue with the NHC.

Chances for Tropical Storm Development in the Next 3 days: 90%
Possibility of hurricane development in the next 3 days: 15%
US threat of Tropical development in next 24%: 99%

Amateur Forecaster Fact789-Jonathan