BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

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Derek Ortt

#61 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:44 pm

that's why I was going with the 9B and not 6B. JTWC only warns on systems of 35KT or greater in the Indian
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Re:

#62 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:46 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that's why I was going with the 9B and not 6B. JTWC only warns on systems of 35KT or greater in the Indian


But wouldn't you then be implicitly acknowledging the IMD? :wink: :lol:
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Derek Ortt

#63 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:48 pm

grudgingly, yes. Though not much choice since JT doesn't recognize depressions for reasons I am not sure of
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#64 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:00 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &SIZE=full

Here is our deep depression. Already taking up a large percentage of the Bay of Bengal. Also, maybe some hints that the eye is becoming visible on visible imagery
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#65 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:00 pm

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 12-11-2007



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0200 UTC OF 12 NOVEMBER, 2007 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 12 NOVEMBER 2007 (.)



THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH NOVEMBER 2007 OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA NEAR LAT. 10.5 DEG N AND LONG. 91.5 DEG E, ABOUT 200 KMS SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.


IN ASSOCIATION WTH THE ABOVE SYSTEM, BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LAT. 09.0 DEG N TO 15.0 DEG N AND LONG. 89.0 DEG E TO 92.0 DEG E, ANADMAN ISLANDS AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA.

—————————————————————————————————————————
BOB 09/2007/04 Dated: 12 November, 2007



Sub: Deep Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal.





The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal And adjoining Andaman Sea remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0530 hours IST of today, the 12th November 2007 over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea near Lat. 10.5 Deg N and Long. 91.5 Deg E, about 200 Kms southwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a northwesterly direction.


Under its influence, rain/thundershowers at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( 25 cm or more ) are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.


Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph are likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition is very rough to high around the system centre. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during the next 48 hours.
Last edited by Chacor on Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#66 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:05 pm

what method do they use for determining intensity?
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Re:

#67 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:07 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:what method do they use for determining intensity?



What ever it is, it makes no sense to me.
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#68 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:09 pm

This looks like it's strengthening. Could be a major threat to Bangladesh in about 5 days. Worth watching.
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#69 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:13 pm

I know this might be way out there but maybe the meteorologist at the IMD does not know weather to name it Yemyin or Sidr?
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#70 Postby Crostorm » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:49 pm

Image
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Derek Ortt

#71 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:52 pm

Chacor, could you write one of your advisories that you often write on this?

As for a sat estimate, this now looks like a T 4.0 or a 4.0+ (65-70KT)
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#72 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:01 pm

Tropical cyclone 09B
8pm pst/11pm est
forecast one
"Unoffical"

...9b strengthing fast over the Indian ocean, expected to move northwestward over the next 24 hours...

Latest satellite images of our system shows a well developed tropical cyclone, with outflow perfect over the north and northeast quads. This system is under a very favorable upper Atmosphere, and should keep on building its Anticyclone over the next 24-36 hour time frame. 85h data shows a closed eye, with cimss shows a closed eye. Latest visible shows a small eye appearing, there is little question that this system is now at 65 knots. In we expect this to strengthen to 80 knots during the next 24 hours...Afterwards strengthen to 95 knots at 36 hour is being forecasted.

Track, should be a slow northward turn over the next 24 hours.

All people around the indian ocean, needs to pay close attion to this system.

Forecast
0 65 knots 10.6/90.5
6 70 knots 10.7/90.3
12 75 knots 11.0/90.1
24 80 knots 11.8/89.9
36 90 knots 12.9/89.2
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#73 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:13 pm

need a track, Matt. The intensity forecast is not of much help without a track
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#74 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:20 pm

Track added...
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#75 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:22 pm

<-- My avatar until it is named.
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Re:

#76 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:26 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Chacor, could you write one of your advisories that you often write on this?

As for a sat estimate, this now looks like a T 4.0 or a 4.0+ (65-70KT)


Well, for the WPac storms I normally use JMA info. This one's a bit weird to handle, because anyone intelligent can see that it's stronger than the 55 km/h IMD is saying.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#77 Postby Sanibel » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:38 pm

What is the tropical potential in the Bay Of Bengal at this time of year? That depression has very good symmetry and depth. Night and day difference from all storms this year in the Bay.
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#78 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:39 pm

Image
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Re: NIO: Bay of Bengal: : Tropical Depression 0709

#79 Postby Coredesat » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:43 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Tropical cyclone 09B
8pm pst/11pm est
forecast one
"Unoffical"

...9b strengthing fast over the Indian ocean, expected to move northwestward over the next 24 hours...

Latest satellite images of our system shows a well developed tropical cyclone, with outflow perfect over the north and northeast quads. This system is under a very favorable upper Atmosphere, and should keep on building its Anticyclone over the next 24-36 hour time frame. 85h data shows a closed eye, with cimss shows a closed eye. Latest visible shows a small eye appearing, there is little question that this system is now at 65 knots. In we expect this to strengthen to 80 knots during the next 24 hours...Afterwards strengthen to 95 knots at 36 hour is being forecasted.

Track, should be a slow northward turn over the next 24 hours.

All people around the indian ocean, needs to pay close attion to this system.

Forecast
0 65 knots 10.6/90.5
6 70 knots 10.7/90.3
12 75 knots 11.0/90.1
24 80 knots 11.8/89.9
36 90 knots 12.9/89.2


06B. Not 09B.
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#80 Postby Chacor » Sun Nov 11, 2007 11:51 pm

The following post is NOT an official bulletin and should not be used as such. It is not written using official WMO-RSMC information, nor is the post endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the relevant JTWC and IMD products.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIX-B ADVISORY
10 AM IST... 0430Z... MON NOV 12 2007

...STRONG TROPICAL STORM WEST OF ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL...INCLUDING THE ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS...
WESTERN MYANMAR...BANGLADESH...AND EASTERN INDIA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY STORM.

AT 0730 AM IST...0200Z...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM SIX-B WAS ESTIMATED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7
EAST...ABOUT 160 MILES OR 260 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR...INDIA...ABOUT
120 MILES OR 195 KM WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST ANDAMANS...AND ABOUT 730 MILES
OR 1170 KM EAST OF JAFFNA...SRI LANKA.

TROPICAL STORM 06B IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT FORWARD SPEED OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 50 KNOTS...60 MPH OR
95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM
MOVES DEEPER INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 985 HPA...29.09 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 0200Z POSITION...NEAR 10.4 NORTH 90.7 EAST. MOVEMENT TOWARD...
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...AT LEAST 95
KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...AT LEAST 985 HPA.
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