TC Bertha

[gotoman38]

If it holds to forecast, are we looking at the first flight on Monday most likely? Maybe Tuesday?

I'm thinking Tues AM - fcst pos. is 20.8N 57.5W at 8am EDT on the 8th - that puts it about 450nm from St Croix.

Anybody have input on this?

[canegrl04]

That is so getting too damn close to the US. If it doesn't get pulled north by the end of that run,look out Florida to the Carolinas

[BatzVI]

Thanks caribepr.....I guess I was looking for an "educated opinion" as I have future travel plans and would most likely cancel them if there was an indication that something could get a little too close for comfort.....it's much easier being here and going through it, then being elsewhere and not able to get back.....with that said, I'm monitoring as is everyone else....off topic caribepr, but have you noticed that little blob just to the east of the islands around 57W?....hopefully that's just some rain headed our way.....

[Buck]

Bertha has definitely impressed me by so steadily getting her act together for such an early and eastern storm. If she keeps up we might see a hurricane late tomorrow. I reckon the winds might be up to 55 or 60 mph by 5pm.

[x-y-no]

Not really here to make friends but I am sorry if I hurt anyone's feelings. I really don't like it when people misinform others about tropical weather. Helping people learn has been a passion of mine that I have had for many years. When incorrect information is given, I make sure that it is corrected to the best of my ability and back up my reasoning with sound scientific facts NOT just gut feelings.

That's fine and of course we really value such substantive discussion. But it helps if we all consider our tone, too. Unfortunately, typed text doesn't convey intent as well as speaking does, so it's all to easy for any of us to come off as rude even though that's not at all what we intend.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'll continue to keep an eye on Bertha. There's 7 days to watch it, so
no need to worry too much now, but just be aware of what's going
on.

[vacanechaser]

Not really here to make friends but I am sorry if I hurt anyone's feelings. I really don't like it when people misinform others about tropical weather. Helping people learn has been a passion of mine that I have had for many years. When incorrect information is given, I make sure that it is corrected to the best of my ability and back up my reasoning with sound scientific facts NOT just gut feelings.

That's fine and of course we really value such substantive discussion. But it helps if we all consider our tone, too. Unfortunately, typed text doesn't convey intent as well as speaking does, so it's all to easy for any of us to come off as rude even though that's not at all what we intend.

i will take up for him... i know him, he would not mean for it to sound harsh or rude.... i would, but he wrote it.. lol.. just not his tone...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 030915.GIF

Here you can clearly see how the WNW track of Bertha then becomes West.

[Blown Away]

Bottom line, the ridge is not strong enough to prevent a stronger deeper Bertha from turning N. So if Bertha makes it to the CONUS then should be a weak shallow system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bottom line, the ridge is not strong enough to prevent a stronger deeper Bertha from turning N. So if Bertha makes it to the CONUS then should be a weak shallow system.

Unless it strengthens before landfall, of course.


Too far away to say anything beyond generalities, and even those are sprinkled with caveats, before baking in a preheated oven.

[dizzyfish]

First mention of Bertha from the Tampa NWS....

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF CYCLIC CONVECTION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD...A WEAK TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE AND WILL FORCE THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AROUND THE TIME "BERTHA" WILL BE NEARING 70W.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather:

[cycloneye]

Bertha is moving strait west at 275 degrees.Here is the latest from atcf.

AL, 02, 2008070518, , BEST, 0, 165N, 384W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 30, 0, 75,

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
222 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE WX PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. MOST MDLS SHOW THE
DEEP LAYER ATLC RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PENINSULA
PUTTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER DEEPER EASTERLIES (ESE FLOW
ACTUALLY). GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN PW VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ISOLD TO SCT
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE EXPECTED, THE FOCUS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY INTERIOR AND WEST.

.MARINE...WIND SHOULD CONTINUE ESE AOB 15 KTS AND SEAS AOB 4 FT
THROUGH MID WEEK.

NWS Miami see the Ridge building W as Bertha gets closer.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't be too concerned about any brief motion more west than west-northwest. It's unlikely that Bertha will have any impact on the Caribbean as it's almost north of the Caribbean already. In order to directly impact the BVI or Puerto Rico, Bertha would have to track toward 272 degrees from its current location. That would be unheard of climatologically, and highly unlikely given the weakness in the ridge to its north. There would have to be a massive ridge north of Bertha to prevent any northward motion for 3-4 days, and we just don't have that out there.

For some perspective on possible impact to the East U.S. Coast, I did a search at the Coastal Services Center web site (http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html) for all storms passing within 50nm of Bertha's current location since 1851. None of the storms managed to reach the Caribbean, and only one made it far enough west to reach the U.S. So it would, indeed, be a rare storm that struck land from Bertha's current location. I still think that there's a better chance that it won't reach the east U.S., but I am concerned about it stalling around day 6-7 and being forced westward.

[RL3AO]

I thought Bertha was over cooler waters the past few days, and was now entering warmer waters. That SST map seems to be the opposite.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 070508

Tropical Storm Bertha continues westward while holding its intensity. A disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico persists. Invest 97E is close to Tropical Depression status.



Eastern Atlantic...Tropical Storm Bertha. Cool waters has kept Bertha from strengthening, but has allowed, combined with low shear, for her to maintain 45kts. I expect Bertha's structure to become more orgainized, and as it moves over slightly warmer water for Bertha to intensify. At this time I am hesitant to say that Bertha will reach hurricane strength, but I do think it is possible. Shear in Bertha's future may slow any intensification until the Western Atlantic. The track still depends on its intensity. The stronger the storm or hurricane, the farther north it goes. The weaker; the farther south and closer to land. Right now I believe that the NHC has a good track. I widened my cone to include the northeasternmost Caribbean islands because I think the models will be variable for a few days, which is also why I opened the cone on the northern side. On the long range, I do believe the US does have a minor threat against it for next weekend. I think that the Carolinas will have a greater threat than Florida because of the parabolic future this system will likely take. I still do not expect a strike. Those from the northern and eastern most islands to the USA from Florida to North Carolina, and even Bermuda should watch this system carefully. If you don't have your hurricane kits ready, prepare them for a 'just in case.'

Western Gulf of Mexico....Disturbance. In the western GOM, there is thunderstorm complex south of texas and west of Mexico. This should be moving north and west over land and is not expected to develop.

Eastern Pacific...Southwest of Mexico....Invest 97E. 97E is becoming better organized and is slightly intensifying. I expect a Tropical Depression to be declared later today or tonight. The system will move northwestward bringing rain to coastal Mexico and soon move out to sea.

Jonathan....Fact789

[senorpepr]

I thought Bertha was over cooler waters the past few days, and was now entering warmer waters. That SST map seems to be the opposite.

FWIW, this above chart only uses Buoy and Ship data. That may play a factor.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

It looks like the TUTT in the central Atlantic may be de-amplifying slightly at H7-H8, and it also appears to be gradually lifting out, leaving a flatter ridge in its wake. Simultaneously, there is a broad longwave trough at the mid to upper levels across the eastern CONUS, displacing the upper level ridge to the central and eastern Atlantic. At the surface, a stationary front has weakened the western extent of the strong subtropical low level ridging. The big questions involve the strength of the rebuilding ridging, the movement of the TUTT, and the intensity of Bertha. The evolution of the TUTT suggests that upper level divergence/shear may decrease over the SW Atlantic near the NE Caribbean, which would be more conducive for slow intensification of Bertha down the road. On the other hand, the cyclone currently remains embedded within a stable environment, as evidenced by the stable boundary layer and open cell stratocumulus surrounding the TC. Although shear is minimal, the thermodynamic environment would argue for a weaker system and much slower deepening within the short term. A weaker Bertha would also be more vulnerable to shear. If Bertha is weaker than anticipated over the long term, a more westward track would be plausible, but the weaker intensity would also be detrimental when the TC encounters further shear from the next trough to enter the eastern CONUS. A deeper and more intense Bertha would avoid such dire prospects, but it would likely follow a more northerly path. The track also depends on the timing of Bertha's intensity trends. If Bertha remains weaker within the short term and primarily deepens as it bypasses the TUTT during the medium to long range, the chances for a CONUS landfall would be substantially greater, as opposed to a scenario where Bertha mainly deepens during the current short term. Currently, Bertha is clearly not intensifying significantly, and it is moving just north of due west at a brisk pace. Since models have clearly been deepening Bertha too quickly over the past few days and the thermodynamic environment is marginal for significant short term deepening, I'm inclined to support a more westward solution for Bertha within the short to medium term. This would raise the probabilities for a CONUS landfall, though they are still slim and uncertain.

If the situation evolves as I anticipate, Bertha's greatest threat to the United States will be concentrated along the Carolinas (especially North Carolina), as opposed to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast to the north and Florida/Georgia to the south. Since the closest historical threats to the CONUS passed north of the NE Caribbean, I believe Bertha will pass just north of the Leeward Islands and that region, though some precipitation and breezy conditions are possible. On an unrelated note, the track of the first Cape Verde TC during a season can be a good indicator of the general "alley" for Cape Verde systems during the remainder of the season. In 1926, a July TC of Cape Verde origin moved NW through the Bahamas as a major (Cat 3) hurricane and eventually struck east-central FL near Merritt Island (Cat 2). Later in the season, a large, intense, long tracked Cape Verde TC dissected the SE coast of FL at Miami (Cat 4/125 kt/933 mb), becoming an extremely destructive system as it passed over the southern FL peninsula and made its second landfall near Perdido Key, AL (Cat 3). In 1996, Hurricane Bertha curved east of FL and struck NC (Cat 2); the other Cape Verde tropical cyclones of the season recurved east of the East Coast, with at least one (Edouard) passing close to the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. If Bertha curves north as expected, the other Cape Verde systems of the season will likely follow a similar pattern, with several systems recurving east of the East Coast and threatening Bermuda. A few (1-2) may scrape the East Coast and strike the Carolinas.

Current streamline analysis at H7-H8:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

H5-H8:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

Visible satellite data:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

I know this is off topic abit but this is the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL for this coming week and maybe this will help to figer out bertha


MON-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH E-W RIDGE AXIS BECOMING ESTABLISHED
NEAR 30N LATITUDE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY MID-LATE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY-MID WEEK TO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
MID-LATE WEEK. LIGHT ONSHORE WIND REGIME WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING MOISTURE LEVELS SUGGEST POPS LOWERING TO
CLIMO VALUES OF 30 PERCENT COAST AND 40 PERCENT INLAND. FAVORED
CONVECTIVE PERIOD FOR COASTAL COUNTIES WILL BE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.