TC Bertha

[cycloneye]

What does ACE mean? I remember the term from 05 but don't recall what it means.

Here is the whole explanation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2008_ ... /ACE_calcs

[WmE]

What does ACE mean? I remember the term from 05 but don't recall what it means.

ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It meassures the activity of a storm or a season. It's roughly calculated with kts²/1000.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 070708

Bertha is now a Category 1 hurricane and is still strengthening as it nears Bermuda.



Central Atlantic...Category 1 Hurricane Bertha. Tropical Storm Bertha has quickly grown into a category 1 hurricane, and is nearing category 2 status with winds of 90mph, per the NHC. I think that Bertha has strengthened since the last advisory up to 100-105mph, which is category 2. I wouldnt be surprised to see category 2 by 5pm. Over night an eye opened up, and became orgainized. The eye is still orgainizing, and is very small, only 15 miles in diameter, and is located near 19.9N 51.6W. Over the next day or so, I expect the eye to slightly expand as Bertha strengthens. Bertha seems to be making her own environment for shear. I dont expect shear to be a major problem for the rest of her life. Water temps, and Ocean Heat Content (OHC) continue to improve, which will aid Bertha in her strengthening.

The track is quite worrysome for Bermuda. I think Bermuda will be affected by Bertha, by how much remains to be seen, but a direct hit by a category 2, or 3, is not out of the question. Per the latest NHC track, Bermuda should expect tropical storm force winds with stronger gusts, high waves, and surge. When the hurricane warning is issued, the NHC will be operationally posting surge forecasts this year. Anyone in Bermuda should be preparing for a hurricane with winds of 100+mph. If you can move to higher ground, it would be advised. Tourists should leave the island. Any and all preparations should be carried to completion in the next few days.

Fact789-Jonathan

[cycloneye]

At 20n.

[JonathanBelles]

I made that forecast before I saw the ATCF file, so it may be a bit old now.

[Steve]

>>I smell record ACE for July coming next..

Let's don't forget landfalling Cat-3 Dennis (the often forgotten Cat-3 landfalling storm of 2005) which was a Category 4 and the strongest Atlantic storm ever recorded in July (931ish I think) before Emily.

Then there was Cat-1 landfalling Cindy which hit Louisiana. TS Franklin was that month as was TS Gert. I think the H storm was the next one for August.

So I think you might be smelling your upper lip or someone's bbq from this past weekend.



Steve

[txwatcher91]

Thanks for the link about ACE.

IMO, Bertha appears to be at 120-125mph and could reach cat 4. The main reason is it is a very small storm right now and the smaller hurricanes usually have higher winds than the larger hurricanes since there is less friction area. Satellite also looks impressive.

[DanKellFla]

Wow, what a nice looking storm. The last track I saw had Bertha going east of Bemuda. So, I don't think it will be bad for them. But, as usual, preparation is the key.
What is the ACE for this storm so far?

[RL3AO]

It sucks that we may never know the actual intensity of this storm. Everything is just a guess.

[Scorpion]

Looks like she could peak around 120 kt IMO

[SkyDragon]

>>I smell record ACE for July coming next..

Let's don't forget landfalling Cat-3 Dennis (the often forgotten Cat-3 landfalling storm of 2005) which was a Category 4 and the strongest Atlantic storm ever recorded in July (931ish I think) before Emily.

Then there was Cat-1 landfalling Cindy which hit Louisiana. TS Franklin was that month as was TS Gert. I think the H storm was the next one for August.

So I think you might be smelling your upper lip or someone's bbq from this past weekend.



Steve

It was 930 mbar, Emily beat it and got a pressure of 929 mbar 8 days later

[arkestra]

the look of this reminds me of an annular cane. I know I'm wrong, particulary because of the massive northeastern rainbands... but still pretty impressive.

[CrazyC83]

From the looks of this and the new data, I'd say 95 kt.

[WmE]

>>I smell record ACE for July coming next..

Let's don't forget landfalling Cat-3 Dennis (the often forgotten Cat-3 landfalling storm of 2005) which was a Category 4 and the strongest Atlantic storm ever recorded in July (931ish I think) before Emily.

Then there was Cat-1 landfalling Cindy which hit Louisiana. TS Franklin was that month as was TS Gert. I think the H storm was the next one for August.

So I think you might be smelling your upper lip or someone's bbq from this past weekend.



Steve

It was 930 mbar, Emily beat it and got a pressure of 929 mbar 8 days later

Dennis wasn't forgotten, in fact he was retired in contrary to Emily.

[arkestra]

Wow, what a nice looking storm. The last track I saw had Bertha going east of Bemuda. So, I don't think it will be bad for them. But, as usual, preparation is the key.
What is the ACE for this storm so far?

It's around 4 I think.

[DESTRUCTION5]

>>I smell record ACE for July coming next..

Let's don't forget landfalling Cat-3 Dennis (the often forgotten Cat-3 landfalling storm of 2005) which was a Category 4 and the strongest Atlantic storm ever recorded in July (931ish I think) before Emily.

Then there was Cat-1 landfalling Cindy which hit Louisiana. TS Franklin was that month as was TS Gert. I think the H storm was the next one for August.

So I think you might be smelling your upper lip or someone's bbq from this past weekend.



Steve

It was 930 mbar, Emily beat it and got a pressure of 929 mbar 8 days later

Dennis wasn't forgotten, in fact he was retired in contrary to Emily.

I was assuming Bertha will hang around another 2 weeks and she would not be the last of July ofcourse since its the 7th..

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclenall]

Unbelievable!! Bertha is becoming Bertha from 1996, just threatening Bermuda this time. The eye should start to clear out (impressive for where it is for this time of year). The only thing that not making this a major right now is the convection...however once the eye clears I think it should become the first major hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season! Quite something to see, the first since 2005.

It looks like some of the strength the models are boasting for Bertha wasn't that far off after all, remember the GFDL forecasted a major hurricane out of this.

This can't beat the July record for ACE, 2005 will hold that record for now.

So I think you might be smelling your upper lip or someone's bbq from this past weekend.

LOL.

I know I'm wrong, particulary because of the massive northeastern rainbands, but somehow the look of this reminds me of an annular cane.

It would take a while if it did become one, I'm not ruling it out since the convection is shallow and it looks fairly symmetrical on the south side. The eye isn't large though.

I think it's 95 knots currently. If the eye is clear, then 105 knots.

[WmE]

Unbelievable!! Bertha is becoming Bertha from 1996, just threatening Bermuda this time. The eye should start to clear out (impressive for where it is for this time of year). The only thing that not making this a major right now is the convection...however once the eye clears I think it should become the first major hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season! Quite something to see, the first since 2005.

It looks like some of the strength the models are boasting for Bertha wasn't that far off after all, remember the GFDL forecasted a major hurricane out of this.

This can't beat the July record for ACE, 2005 will hold that record for now.

So I think you might be smelling your upper lip or someone's bbq from this past weekend.

LOL.

I know I'm wrong, particulary because of the massive northeastern rainbands, but somehow the look of this reminds me of an annular cane.

It would take a while if it did become one, I'm not ruling it out since the convection is shallow and it looks fairly symmetrical on the south side. The eye isn't large though.

I think it's 95 knots currently. If the eye is clear, then 105 knots.

This one isn't even close to be a annular cane.

[SkyDragon]