ATL: Marco : Tropical Depression - Discussion

[RL3AO]

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invest_al962008.invest
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200810042011
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AL, 96, 2008100418, , BEST, 0, 178N, 880W, 20, 1010, DB

[captain east]

Anyone have any models or info to back up where this thing would go if were to develop?

[AJC3]

Anyone have any models or info to back up where this thing would go if were to develop?

Well, since none of the reliable models actually develop the system...not really. Since it's classified as an invest, you'll be able to get a very rough idea of the forecast steering currents when and if some track guidance is run on it. Otherwise, there is some indication that the moisture and weak vorticity associated with it will drift out over the BOC/southern GOMEX and eventually what's left of it will slowly drift toward the Mexican mainland.

[caneman]

There is actually some modeling support, rather it is with this feature or another, it clearly shows up in the the 5-6 day time frame for both the 12z HWRF and NGP as both have low pressure showing up in the NW Caribb.. Lets see what the 18z and 00z's models show.

[AJC3]

There is actually some modeling support, rather it is with this feature or another, it clearly shows up in the the 5-6 day time frame for both the 12z HWRF and NGP as both have low pressure showing up in the NW Caribb.. Lets see what the 18z and 00z's models show.

Hence, this is why I said "reliable". Both those models have a positive bias toward genesis, although not nearly to the extent that the NAM and CMC have.

As far as TC-genesis is concerned, I like to see one or more of the better globals (i.e. GFS/ECM/UKM) show genesis for several consecutive runs before I begin to get excited.

[CrazyC83]

Seems to be just drifting out there.

[caneman]

There is actually some modeling support, rather it is with this feature or another, it clearly shows up in the the 5-6 day time frame for both the 12z HWRF and NGP as both have low pressure showing up in the NW Caribb.. Lets see what the 18z and 00z's models show.

Hence, this is why I said "reliable". Both those models have a positive bias toward genesis, although not nearly to the extent that the NAM and CMC have.

As far as TC-genesis is concerned, I like to see one or more of the better globals (i.e. GFS/ECM/UKM) show genesis for several consecutive runs before I begin to get excited.

And that is why I said lets wait for the next runs, not only for consistency but to see if others come on board.

[wxman57]

18Z GFS shows the 850mb vorticity and weak low pressure tracking into the SE BoC tomorrow then westward and inland into southern Mexico on Tuesday. Development chances appear to be low. Interesting that they waited until it moved inland to declare an invest.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 042343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHERN
BELIZE. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY IF THE LOW EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Sanibel]

I assumed the trough was still in play as far as steering. It does appear to be heading WNW across Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 051142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[wxman57]

Not much there but a weak tropical wave. It has about as much of a chance of development as the other 60-70 waves that have moved across the basin this season, maybe less since time over water will be limited.

[cycloneye]

57 your are right,invest deactivated.

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[Ed Mahmoud]

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=103446&hilit=&start=140 is still locked...

[cycloneye]

The members can continue to post comments in this thread. If ex 96L is activated again,it will be moved to Active Storms Forum again.

[Sanibel]

Weak overland center didn't retain as much convection as I thought. The energy off shore east of Yucatan is bending N, but our surface feature is still weakly headed for BOC. I don't think this is a d-min so we'll have to see what it does once back over water. Having trouble getting #13 here.

[tailgater]

Weak overland center didn't retain as much convection as I thought. The energy off shore east of Yucatan is bending N, but our surface feature is still weakly headed for BOC. I don't think this is a d-min so we'll have to see what it does once back over water. Having trouble getting #13 here.

Looks to me that it has a fairly tight LLC(small) moving just a bit north of due west. Let's if can make it back over water for a day or so, it would probably spin up rather quickly being so small.
Doubtful, but I sure thought this would be a TD or TS about 4 or 5 days ago.

[Sanibel]

If this had gone N along the trough and stayed over water it would have been a whole other story. 96L was really bursting yesterday. Whether it was a Fay-type good signature with no lower feature to match I don't know, but it was on its way. The trough must have eroded but kept its convection border.

[tailgater]

This small LLc may blow up quickly when it reaches the warm waters of the BOC if Shear isn't too big of a problem . I know it won't be over water long but I saw a storm develop from one similar to this one a few years back "Bret" maybe.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES2 ... ABSywB.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Convection developing over the tiny LLC.