EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

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wxman57
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#281 Postby wxman57 » Thu May 28, 2009 10:08 pm

Cookie wrote:so what are the chances out of 100% of Ana forming in the next 24 hrs?


I'd estimate maybe 1-2%. Shear is clearly increasing as it accelerates off to the east. Water is cooling, convection diminishing. It passed its peak around 15Z today and has been downhill since. No Ana from this depression.
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Re: MODEL GUIDANCE : Tropical Depression ONE

#282 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 28, 2009 10:22 pm

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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#283 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 28, 2009 11:15 pm

If one accepts the Joe Bastardi conspiracy theory that on close calls on naming/not naming, NHC makes sure its forecasts 'verify', this would be Ana in 12 hours.

Based on pathetic satellite appearance, it probably would prove a conspiracy theory if 01 is upgraded.

Cloud tops have gotten a bit colder, but it looks very asymmetric, (sp?), and best I can tell of low cloud motion from IR imagery loops, the convection is displaced well Southeast of the surface center.
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Re: Re:

#284 Postby tailgater » Fri May 29, 2009 1:27 am

wxman57 wrote:
Cookie wrote:so what are the chances out of 100% of Ana forming in the next 24 hrs?


I'd estimate maybe 1-2%. Shear is clearly increasing as it accelerates off to the east. Water is cooling, convection diminishing. It passed its peak around 15Z today and has been downhill since. No Ana from this depression.


Looks like that 1% is happening. this darn thing doesn't know it should be dead.
Image

loop
Time sensetive
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html












[/img]
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#285 Postby Chacor » Fri May 29, 2009 1:58 am

TAFB satellite estimate is T2.5/2.5 at 0545. SAB T1.5/2.0.
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#286 Postby KWT » Fri May 29, 2009 5:02 am

Shear seems to have increased as Wxman57 was predicting, convection once again blown away to the east of the center.
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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#287 Postby wxman57 » Fri May 29, 2009 5:54 am

The LLC is now well west of the convection as shear continues to increase. That's about it for this depression.
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#288 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 29, 2009 5:55 am

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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#289 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 29, 2009 5:57 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2009 Time : 094500 UTC
Lat : 39:00:09 N Lon : 66:04:39 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.1 1.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +14.9C Cloud Region Temp : 7.8C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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#290 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 29, 2009 6:06 am

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#291 Postby Chacor » Fri May 29, 2009 8:29 am

AL, 01, 2009052912, , BEST, 0, 393N, 649W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, M, 12, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 0
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#292 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 29, 2009 8:59 am

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Shear taking its toll.
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#293 Postby Chacor » Fri May 29, 2009 9:32 am

WTNT31 KNHC 291431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009

...DEPRESSION MOVING INTO COLDER WATER...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT
345 MILES...555 KM...SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...
29 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER
WATERS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...39.6N 64.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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#294 Postby Chacor » Fri May 29, 2009 9:33 am

WTNT41 KNHC 291433
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR DISPLACING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB CONFIRM
THIS DEGRADATION IN APPEARANCE...BUT WINDS ARE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT
AT 30 KT THIS ADVISORY BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT ESTIMATES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN
ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 065/16...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE.
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUGGESTS A
FURTHER ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED COLDER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST TRACK
TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MAJORITY
OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 12 HOURS
AND ABSORPTION BY THE FRONTAL ZONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 39.6N 64.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 41.2N 61.2W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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#295 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 29, 2009 9:37 am

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The end is near. Thanks to TD 1 for making May interesting!
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#296 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 29, 2009 10:20 am

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Re:

#297 Postby TropicalWXMA » Fri May 29, 2009 10:29 am

That constant shaking from the satellite makes it look really epic haha. I love it!


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Re: EAST COAST : Tropical Depression ONE

#298 Postby wxman57 » Fri May 29, 2009 11:21 am

It's being ripped to shreds now. Convection is several hundred miles east of the weak LLC and racing away to the east while the LLC drifts ENE. Time to put it out of its misery. Certainly wouldn't qualify for a TD upgrade in its current state.
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#299 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 29, 2009 11:42 am

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#300 Postby RL3AO » Fri May 29, 2009 11:57 am

Bye bye 01L.
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