Hawai'i/CPAC 2009 thread.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Big basin satellite loop.

Nothing looks threatening now.

But the ocean is warm


Nothing on the table yet, but lets see what happens in September, shall we?



GFS and Canadian indicate no CPAC development, and very unfavorable shear over the Hawai'ian Islands.

[Ed Mahmoud]

First potentially interesting feature (per Canadian) of the season approaching 140ºW



Shearl looks to be unfavorable ahead, but mean steering might suggest a possibly something for Hawai'i.

Or not.

[cycloneye]

Maybe one of these blobs can reach TC status and track all the way into the CPAC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

0Z Canadian shows first CPAC storm...

[KWT]

ECM does seem to develop the convection that cycloneye has noticed, though it only creates a weak system at best, still might be something to watch 3-4 days time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Canadian


12Z GFS

[Ed Mahmoud]

Way too soon to be certain, but could potential future Carlos be a Hawai'i player?

[KWT]

Its possible Ed, looks like a low rider for a while yet and some models do suggest a weakness fairly close to the islands so its something that needs to be watched just in case.

[HURAKAN]

A long way out but Hawaii certainly needs to keep an eye on it.

[vbhoutex]

I admit I am lazy, but has anyone looked at the SST's out ahead of this system. Does it really have a chance to make it that far?

[HURAKAN]

I admit I am lazy, but has anyone looked at the SST's out ahead of this system. Does it really have a chance to make it that far?

It has to remain below 15ºN most of the way.

[tolakram]

Shear tendency.

[cycloneye]

Carlos is born in the EPAC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Carlos is born in the EPAC.

And if it isn't Carlos, Hawai'i still has to watch the system to the East, not officially an invest yet best I can tell, but no doubt soon to be one based on NHC CODE ORANGE alert.




Busiest year in a long time for the CPCH, maybe...

[Ed Mahmoud]

BTW, another El Niño year storm, Iwa, hit Hawai'i in November, so just because Carlos may miss to the South doesn't mean the season is over in a big way.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A long ways off in this El Nino season, but Euro has an East Pac hurricane and the ridge is building Westward!

[Ed Mahmoud]

BTW, the disturbance near 135ºW- will it be an "E" invest or a "C" invest?

I'm thinking it does get to be an invest.


Satellite loop

[clfenwi]

2205 UTC TWD on the disturbance Ed mentioned:

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N TO 16N ALONG 133W IS MOVING W 15 KT.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL TURNING NOTED
NEAR 12N134W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1418 UTC
INDICATED LOW PRES MAY BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE


Has about one more day in the EPAC.

The QUIKSCAT mentioned in the discussion:


Hi-Res version:

[cycloneye]

Finnaly a new invest is up at the EPAC after almost 2 weeks being quiet.

[somethingfunny]

The CPAC has suddenly become very interesting. Hawaii appears to be shielded by a solid shear layer too, so it's the best of both worlds: Unlikely to impact land, and something interesting for us to track finally!