WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[ozonepete]

Thanks HURAKAN, I've been very busy in real life so only have the times to check on here during the weekends.

Hurakan ROCKS!

Thanks for the appreciation!!!



Looking more extratropical by the minute

Clearly. And weakening. Still have to watch, but much less of a threat now.

[Infdidoll]

Aslkahuna is correct. Here is the website we go by with the TCCOR level and an explanation of what each level means: http://kadenaforcesupport.com/weather.html

So you are under TCCOR 4 right now?

From what I understand, we're always in TCCOR 4 during typhoon season since we're in a high risk area. The last time we were in TCCOR 3 was when Melor went by a few weeks ago and when Morakot passed us back in August. They haven't upgraded it at all for this storm.

[WindRunner]

Nice visible shot...you can see the convection enhanced by the frontal boundary curving outward from the west side up to the north. You can also see a nice edge of solid clouds with clearing to the south if you follow a line just north of due east out from the centre - that's what is quickly becoming the warm front of the system. To the south, you can also see the last of the tropical-looking outflow from the system, before the stronger upper-level winds associated with the front to the north cuts those off too. At this rate, the ET process should be done with by this time tomorrow - and that's when things will get interesting!

[Infdidoll]

That's an amazing shot! It seems like we're getting the worst we're probably going to get, right now.

[StormingB81]

This is the windiest all day. I would have to say these gust are about 45-50 mph

[StormingB81]

I have a question. It seems whenever a Hurricane hits the east coast or GOM there are always Tornado watches or warnings that go up. I never see that on in the WPAC. Is that because they can't form in the WPAC or maybe because the weather doesn't show it as much or what?

[oaba09]

I have a question. It seems whenever a Hurricane hits the east coast or GOM there are always Tornado watches or warnings that go up. I never see that on in the WPAC. Is that because they can't form in the WPAC or maybe because the weather doesn't show it as much or what?

Just last week, a tornado hit one of the towns here...Yes, it is possible to occur in the WPAC....For some reason, our local agencies never warn about tornadoes

[Chacor]

Because tornadoes tend to be rarer-occurring in the region, very few agencies ever issue tornado warnings. I'm sure it's possible that there are localised warnings for severe weather (which pretty much includes tornadoes) in such an event anyway.

[Infdidoll]

Grrrr...Just found water coming in one of my windowsills...got all over a few books I had sitting there. Now must go around checking all windows. It's really roaring out there, now. I was expecting this to be much calmer for being a tropical storm.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 24.9N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM WEST 200NM EAST
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 27.1N 133.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 270600UTC 30.2N 140.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 280600UTC 33.8N 146.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[StormingB81]

Kadena AB reporting winds of 40 mph gusting up to 48

[drdavisjr]

Here is a link to an interesting, if not farfetched theory regarding Lupit.

Note: The Manila Bulletin has the largest circulation in the city, I think.

http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/226280/te ... th-experts

[dexterlabio]

Here is a link to an interesting, if not farfetched theory regarding Lupit.

Note: The Manila Bulletin has the largest circulation in the city, I think.

http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/226280/te ... th-experts

Wow. That made me think for some seconds. That kind of technology that can alter the movement or intensity of a cyclone is not possible. If that whatsoever weather modification machine really exist, then why didn't it stop PARMA and KETSANA from causing devastation in the country?

The project that attempts to weaken or to drive a system away has been stopped. It was in the U.S. but I couldn't recall much from it. They use this cloud seeding technique to weaken the core of a hurricane then they observed that it worked out (little they know that it was an eyewall replacement that actually weakens it). They learned afterwards that it is naturally occuring even w/o cloud seeding, and there are chances that the system may intesify rather than weaken, or taking a more dangerous track.

[Cookie]

Getting a baroclinic boost

sorry whats a baroclinic boost again?

edit: lol, looks like i got outposted while i was creating my long-winded blabber...

still thanks for posting though, still appreciated

[HURAKAN]

Taking its last breath

[HURAKAN]

Bye, bye baby

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 24.9N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.4N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 29.3N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 33.2N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 45 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 38.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 129.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS LOST A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ERODED ITS VERTICAL STRUCTURE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWING
AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND ON RADAR FIXES FROM JAPAN. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, KNES, AND
PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS DEPICTED BY THE THICKNESS PACKING ON THE
250000Z 1000-500 MB THICKNESS CHART. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, IT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND
BECOME FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL (ET) BY TAU 48. DESPITE THE HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN
INTACT AND MAINTAIN TS INTENSITY UP TO ET STATUS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

1500z JTWC Warning=45kts

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 25.9N 130.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9N 130.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 28.3N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.5N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 36.4N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 42.6N 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 131.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS ACCELERATED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z
AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

JMA 12 UTC Warning:

STS 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 25 October 2009
<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°40'(25.7°)
E130°05'(130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more W560km(300NM)
E370km(200NM)

<Estimate for 25/13 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°50'(25.8°)
E130°25'(130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more W560km(300NM)
E370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10'(27.2°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area Wide 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°05'(29.1°)
E137°00'(137.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N36°40'(36.7°)
E147°50'(147.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(29kt)
Central pressure 976hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area Wide 520km(280NM)

[HURAKAN]

Not much left