WPAC - TROPICAL DEPRESSION (97W) (TS 28W JTWC)

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WPAC - TROPICAL DEPRESSION (97W) (TS 28W JTWC)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Nov 28, 2009 12:01 pm

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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#2 Postby Crostorm » Sat Nov 28, 2009 2:04 pm

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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 28, 2009 6:18 pm

NWS Guam Discussion of impacts of 97W in Mariana Islands

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE JTWC IS TRACKING A CIRCULATION CURRENTLY SOUTH OF POHNPEI AS
INVEST AREA 97W. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WILL KEEP GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THRU TONIGHT. THEN A
TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE INTO THE CIRCULATION...PROLONGING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARD...FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON
THE STATUS OF THE CIRCULATION. MONSOONAL FLOW IS ALREADY FEEDING
INTO THE CIRCULATION. A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS ABOVE THE CIRCULATION IS SETTING UP AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
TO THE NORTHEAST ENHANCES OUTFLOW. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SEEMS
LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALREADY BOOSTED COMBINED SEAS A BIT
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS MIGHT NEED TO INCREASE WINDS
AND SHOWER COVERAGE AS WELL IF 97W DEVELOPS FURTHER AS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. FOR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...RESIDUAL CONVERGENCE
BEHIND THE TRADE DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THRU TONIGHT. BY MONDAY...DELIGHTFUL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO
RETURN AS A DRY TRADE SURGE DOMINATES THE AREA.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/public.php
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#4 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:24 am

ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZNOV2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZNOV2009//

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.2N 160.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, YET UNORGANIZED,
AREA OF SUSTAINED, DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. A 281115Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A WEAK
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS MID-LEVEL TURNING IN THE FORM OF A POORLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MORE RECENT 290240Z
AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATE. MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTURBANCE, IS A LIMITING FACTOR IN
FURTHER ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. GIVEN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, POORLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, AND MODERATE TO HIGH VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 29, 2009 6:35 am

NWS GUAM Discussion of 97W

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
404 PM CHST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE MARIANAS MOVING NORTHEAST. TYPHOON NIDA TO THE NORTHWEST IS
NEARLY STATIONARY INDICATING LITTLE STEERING FLOW IN OUR AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THE EVIDENT LACK OF STEERING FLOW IN MICRONESIA...ENDED UP
FAVORING THE GFS40 SOLUTION. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE SPINNING UP IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE SPECIFICS END UP DIFFERING BECAUSE MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE IN A RUSH TO HURRY IT NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS. THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY UNTIL NIDA MOVES SOMEWHERE...SO FOR NOW AM
FAVORING THE GFS40 SOLUTION WHICH LEAVES THE CIRCULATION SITTING
IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 24 HOUR PRESSURE
CHANGES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY INSPIRING EITHER WITH -1.1 AT POHNPEI
AND +0.6 AT CHUUK. SO LETTING THINGS WAIT AN EXTRA DAY OR TWO
DOES SEEM TO BE THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW. ECMWF-HIRES AND COAMPS WERE
FASTEST WITH THE UKMET BEING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT NOT MUCH. GFS
WAS SLOWEST WHICH AT THIS POINT SEEMS BEST. OTHER THAN REFRESHING
THE WINDS FROM THE LATEST GFS40 AND RECALCULATING THE WIND
DEPENDENT GRIDS...THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THIS PACKAGE WAS TO
DELAY THE ONSET AND CESSATION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN KEEPING
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS40 ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING SHIFT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN DRIVER FOR MARINE WEATHER WILL BE TYPHOON NIDA...WHICH IS
EVIDENTLY GOING NOWHERE ANYTIME SOON. IT IS STIRRING UP COLDER
WATER WHICH IS WHY THE JTWC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS SHIFTED FROM
RECURVATURE TO DISSIPATION. IT WILL TAKE A FEW DAYS FOR THAT TO
HAPPEN THOUGH...AND IN THE MEANTIME IT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIT LARGE
SWELLS OUR WAY. THEREFORE LEFT THE HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS THEY WERE SINCE THEY BOTH LOOKED FINE.

&&

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ONT HIGH SURF ADV FOR PALAU AND YAP...AND CHUUK WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR HIGHER SURF AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES. TY NIDA REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY AT 19N139E GENERATING LARGE SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST PACIFIC. SATELLITE SHOWS THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SOUTH OF POHNPEI.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD FROM POHNPEI AND CHUUK TO THE
EQUATOR. VARIOUS MODELS INITIALIZE THIS PATTERN DECENTLY...AND MOVE
THE CIRCULATION GENERALLY NW...BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES. FOR THIS
FORECAST FOLLOWED THE GFS ALONG WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS FOR A
SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LLC TOWARD THE NW. LONGER
TERM FORECAST IS A BIT MURKY FOR THIS WHOLE AREA...AND DEPENDS SO
MUCH ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#6 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:44 am

the convection all over the area is scattered. i bet this will become one huge cyclone as it develops o_O

latest model track
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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#7 Postby dowdavek » Sun Nov 29, 2009 7:59 pm

So, looking at the models this morning this may be a big a one for us on Guam? Of course as soon as we finish getting the Christmas decorations put up lol :D
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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#8 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:28 pm

i viewed the latest sat images and it seems that the cluster of clouds are becoming more compact and organized.
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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:32 pm

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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#10 Postby Crostorm » Mon Nov 30, 2009 2:15 pm

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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#11 Postby dowdavek » Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:45 pm

Already getting some cloud cover this morning on Guam. It's nice keeps the temperature down. Watching this though for the next few days :?:

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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:34 am

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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:35 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
153.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD REGION OF TROUGHING WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION FIRING THROUGHOUT
THE TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGION A SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED ON A 302308Z ASCAT
PASS, WHICH INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH AN AREA OF
STRONGER GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE POOR
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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#14 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Dec 02, 2009 1:26 am

Seeing how this is almost near Nida's path wouldn't that hurt any potential for this becoming a tropical cyclone?
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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#15 Postby dowdavek » Wed Dec 02, 2009 5:42 am

It may have been a small storm, but I recorded 5 inches of rain today at my personal gauge in Dededo, Guam. Totals down south reached 10 inches.


"RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 10 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 5 PM TODAY FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ON GUAM:

MERIZO AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION..........10.17 INCHES
INARAJAN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION........10.30 INCHES
APRA HARBOR AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION......4.98 INCHES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT TIYAN...3.58 INCHES(10 PM TO 4
PM)"


(From Guam National Weather Service)
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Re: WPAC - INVEST 97W

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:46 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PGTW 021900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 143.6E TO 18.3N 139.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 021830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 142.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.1E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 142.9E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST OF GUAM.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021608Z AMSU IMAGE SHOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WRAPPING WEAKLY INTO THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS STILL
VISIBLE ON THE GUAM RADAR, WHICH SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING LLCC. A
PARTIAL 021134Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS A CIRCULATION WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM AND SAIPAN ALSO
INDICATE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1002 MB. THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN
ELONGATED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK INTO AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
031900Z.//
NNNN

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#17 Postby oaba09 » Thu Dec 03, 2009 1:45 am

This seems to be following nida's path....Because of this, I don't expect for this to be much of anything...

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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Dec 03, 2009 10:51 am

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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 04, 2009 8:50 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 20N 141E NORTH SLOWLY.

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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 04, 2009 8:53 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 141E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 141.3E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION SHOWS SIGNS OF
BEING SUBJECTED TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH A RAGGED,
STREAMING APPEARANCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST EDGE. A 040335Z AMSU-B PASS
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, AND ALSO SHOWS
EVIDENCE OF THE CONVECTION STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IN ABOUT 30KTS OF VWS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST INTO A DEVELOPING NORTHERLY COLD
SURGE AND INCREASING VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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