Finally became Tropical Disturbance 6. Look at its weird past track.
![mr. green :ggreen:](./images/smilies/icon_mrgreen.gif)
![Image](http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/830/trajectoire.png)
WTIO30 FMEE 121250
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6
2.A POSITION 2013/01/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8 S / 80.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/13 00 UTC: 11.6 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/01/13 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/01/14 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 78.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/01/14 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/01/15 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/01/15 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/01/16 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2013/01/17 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0-, CI=2.0-.
AS THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASED ALOFT, SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED DURING LAST BNIGHT. CONV
ECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTER SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS IMPR
OVED ACCORDING TO THE LAST TRMM AT 2316Z, LAST ASCAT DATA SHOWS A MORE SYMETRICAL STRUCTURE OF THE
WINDS.
THE SLIGHT EASTERLY PERSISTENET CONSTRAINTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CLEARLY ON SUNDAY, THEN UPPER LE
VEL ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE FAVOURABLE TO INTENSIFICATION, MAINLY ON MONDAY WITH THE BUILDING OF A
SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT THE SLOW SPEED OF DEPLACEMENT SHOULD LIMITED THE INTENSIFICATION POTE
NTIAL.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TRACKER UNDER THE EFFECT OF COMBINED AND
ANTAGONIST STEERING FLOWS, FIRST WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
, BUT COMBINED WITH THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE.THEN TOWARDS SOUTHWEST ON MOND
AY UNDER THE STEERIN EFFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTH AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIGDE IN T
HE EAST.ON WENESDAY, THE SYSTEME TRACKS WESTWARDS AS THE RIDGE IS LOCATED SOUTH, BUT ALWAYS WITH S
LOW SPEED DUE TO THE PERISTENTE EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE.