ATL: ARTHUR - Models
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ATL: ARTHUR - Models
1 KWBC 281242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912014) 20140628 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140628 1200 140629 0000 140629 1200 140630 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.5N 78.6W 32.1N 78.7W 31.6N 79.0W 31.1N 79.3W
BAMD 32.5N 78.6W 32.1N 78.5W 31.7N 78.9W 31.4N 79.2W
BAMM 32.5N 78.6W 32.2N 78.5W 31.8N 78.8W 31.4N 79.1W
LBAR 32.5N 78.6W 32.1N 77.5W 31.6N 76.5W 31.2N 75.7W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 27KTS 32KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140630 1200 140701 1200 140702 1200 140703 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 79.8W 30.4N 80.9W 30.6N 81.8W 31.6N 81.9W
BAMD 31.2N 79.6W 31.0N 80.8W 31.7N 82.1W 33.5N 81.9W
BAMM 31.1N 79.4W 30.9N 80.4W 31.3N 81.4W 32.7N 80.9W
LBAR 30.9N 75.0W 31.0N 73.5W 32.2N 72.4W 35.0N 71.1W
SHIP 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 36KTS 43KTS 41KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.5N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 125DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 33.4N LONM12 = 80.1W DIRM12 = 129DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 81.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1016MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912014) 20140628 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140628 1200 140629 0000 140629 1200 140630 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.5N 78.6W 32.1N 78.7W 31.6N 79.0W 31.1N 79.3W
BAMD 32.5N 78.6W 32.1N 78.5W 31.7N 78.9W 31.4N 79.2W
BAMM 32.5N 78.6W 32.2N 78.5W 31.8N 78.8W 31.4N 79.1W
LBAR 32.5N 78.6W 32.1N 77.5W 31.6N 76.5W 31.2N 75.7W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 27KTS 32KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140630 1200 140701 1200 140702 1200 140703 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 79.8W 30.4N 80.9W 30.6N 81.8W 31.6N 81.9W
BAMD 31.2N 79.6W 31.0N 80.8W 31.7N 82.1W 33.5N 81.9W
BAMM 31.1N 79.4W 30.9N 80.4W 31.3N 81.4W 32.7N 80.9W
LBAR 30.9N 75.0W 31.0N 73.5W 32.2N 72.4W 35.0N 71.1W
SHIP 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 36KTS 43KTS 41KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.5N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 125DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 33.4N LONM12 = 80.1W DIRM12 = 129DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 81.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1016MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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SHIPS show fairly low windshear, but not sure if I agree with the BAM models taking it inland before being possibly picked up the trough next week.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912014 06/28/14 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 32 36 40 43 46 47 49 51
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 27 32 36 40 43 46 41 33 29
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 36 42 41 33 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 12 15 11 7 9 7 10 6 7 4 4 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -6 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 313 311 320 343 322 321 354 350 51 26 54 82 200
SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 117 117 117 117 117 118 119 119 118 116 112
ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 95 96 96 96 96 97 98 98 98 96 93
200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.1 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.3 -55.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 5 5 8 7 10 9 13 10 13 7
700-500 MB RH 64 66 63 61 63 62 65 63 65 60 63 65 57
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3
850 MB ENV VOR -71 -55 -67 -90 -85 -76 -67 -74 -77 -62 -54 -20 1
200 MB DIV -6 0 -23 -10 -9 -8 -1 4 7 25 24 23 53
700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 1 -5 -2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0
LAND (KM) 100 114 129 136 148 172 179 140 100 52 -4 -43 -43
LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.4 32.2 32.0 31.8 31.4 31.1 31.0 30.9 31.0 31.3 32.0 32.7
LONG(DEG W) 78.6 78.6 78.5 78.7 78.8 79.1 79.4 79.9 80.4 80.9 81.4 81.5 80.9
STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 16 20 25 29 30 30 28 20 15 14 5 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ -3
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
12z Euro has 91L coming much closer to the east coast of FL, if not to the coast. Waiting for for had version to confirm.
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
New EURO much closer to Florida. Right on the edge of being soaked on the shore. 6- 8 inches positioned just offshore.
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Strong tropical storm effecting Carolinas this run.
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Wind gust would be at hurricane force according to euro
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
SHIP ups the intensity at 18z.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912014) 20140628 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140628 1800 140629 0600 140629 1800 140630 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.1N 78.2W 31.5N 78.1W 30.8N 78.2W 30.3N 78.3W
BAMD 32.1N 78.2W 31.4N 78.2W 30.8N 78.5W 30.4N 78.8W
BAMM 32.1N 78.2W 31.5N 78.2W 30.9N 78.4W 30.5N 78.7W
LBAR 32.1N 78.2W 31.5N 77.3W 30.9N 76.7W 30.7N 76.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140630 1800 140701 1800 140702 1800 140703 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.2N 78.6W 31.0N 79.1W 32.3N 79.4W 34.6N 78.1W
BAMD 30.3N 79.3W 30.4N 80.6W 31.4N 82.2W 33.4N 82.4W
BAMM 30.3N 79.0W 30.7N 79.8W 31.6N 80.7W 33.5N 80.0W
LBAR 30.5N 76.0W 31.2N 75.8W 32.9N 75.8W 35.5N 74.2W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 50KTS 50KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 50KTS 33KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.1N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 130DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 32.9N LONM12 = 79.4W DIRM12 = 125DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 33.8N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1017MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912014) 20140628 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140628 1800 140629 0600 140629 1800 140630 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.1N 78.2W 31.5N 78.1W 30.8N 78.2W 30.3N 78.3W
BAMD 32.1N 78.2W 31.4N 78.2W 30.8N 78.5W 30.4N 78.8W
BAMM 32.1N 78.2W 31.5N 78.2W 30.9N 78.4W 30.5N 78.7W
LBAR 32.1N 78.2W 31.5N 77.3W 30.9N 76.7W 30.7N 76.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140630 1800 140701 1800 140702 1800 140703 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.2N 78.6W 31.0N 79.1W 32.3N 79.4W 34.6N 78.1W
BAMD 30.3N 79.3W 30.4N 80.6W 31.4N 82.2W 33.4N 82.4W
BAMM 30.3N 79.0W 30.7N 79.8W 31.6N 80.7W 33.5N 80.0W
LBAR 30.5N 76.0W 31.2N 75.8W 32.9N 75.8W 35.5N 74.2W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 50KTS 50KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 50KTS 33KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.1N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 130DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 32.9N LONM12 = 79.4W DIRM12 = 125DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 33.8N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1017MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Re: Re:
look wrong it likely wont be that stronglester wrote:Alyono wrote:New EC MUCH more INTENSE
Yep.
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- AdamFirst
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Re: Re:
lester wrote:Alyono wrote:New EC MUCH more INTENSE
Yep.
What time frame is that?
Last edited by AdamFirst on Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:
floridasun78 wrote:look wrong it likely wont be that stronglester wrote:Alyono wrote:New EC MUCH more INTENSE
Yep.
What looks wrong about it? It shows what can happen to a disturbance with several days over warm waters and in an environment of low shear and an abundance of moisture.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Re:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:floridasun78 wrote:look wrong it likely wont be that stronglester wrote:
Yep.
What looks wrong about it? It shows what can happen to a disturbance with several days over warm waters and in an environment of low shear and an abundance of moisture.
Looks similar to what happened to STS/TS Beryl two years ago as it moved over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and blossomed into almost a hurricane!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Euro has weak cyclone very near Melbourne at 72 hrs. Then moves it slowly north along 80W the next two days.
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