CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

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Re:

#1201 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:58 am

Frank2 wrote:No conspiracy intended, but having worked for pro mets for a long time they have a professional standard like any other profession that they must abide by and that includes their being cautious when posting to social media. That's why we can never get medical advice from a doctor over the internet, or messgae board advice from any other profession for that matter...

P.S. I'm concerned about the Big Island - serious situation there...


I disagree Frank, and we certainly appreciate any and all posting of opinions by the pro-mets. There were no posts here that would lead to liability issues, in my opinion, so I'm really not sure where you're coming from.
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#1202 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:59 am

Equilibrium wrote:http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/905/8bstAB.png


Think a few people here took a look at a weak looking satellite pic and may have under estimated this storms strength wont be surprised to see a lot of wind damage in the final wash up.

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Former Category Four hurricanes won't lose their vorticity very easily...
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1203 Postby arlwx » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:00 am

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A

Issued: 100 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2014


Iselle rapidly weakening off the Kau coast



SUMMARY OF 100 AM HST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION


LOCATION: 19.0N 155.1W
ABOUT 45 MI: 80 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 240 MI: 390 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH: 100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH: 11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 MB or 29.56 INCHES






WATCHES AND WARNINGS


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY,

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT,

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR,
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR,
* MAUI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI,
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.






DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK


At 100 am HST, 1100 UTC, the center of tropical storm Iselle was located near latitude 19.0 north, longitude 155.1 west. Iselle is moving toward the west near 7 mph, 11 km/h, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday, with some increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, 100 km/h, with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, 280 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb, 29.56 inches.




HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND


WIND

Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Big Island and Maui county, and will continue through the night. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Oahu and Kauai county later today.

RAINFALL

Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts to 12 inches, are expected along the track of Iselle. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods as well as rock and mud slides.

SURF

Swells generated by Iselle are producing very large and damaging mainly along east and south facing shores of the Big Island. This damaging surf will diminish later today.

STORM SURGE

The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide,.

Big island windward and Kau, 1 to 2 ft.

Surge related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.





NEXT ADVISORY

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1204 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:01 am

Saved 40 frame radar loop.

Image
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1205 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:03 am

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#1206 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:25 am

Iselle has slowed down a lot.
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#1207 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:29 am

Is it me or is it coming in right now?
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1208 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:40 am

Appears that the LLC is being compressed in some way...
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Equilibrium

Re:

#1209 Postby Equilibrium » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:42 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Is it me or is it coming in right now?


Evan its over land that radar is deceiving.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1210 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:42 am

I think we are seeing what happens when an LLC runs smack into a very tall mountain. I wonder if anything except a weak MLC will make it to the other side?
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Equilibrium

#1211 Postby Equilibrium » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:46 am

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2014 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 19:03:53 N Lon : 155:46:23 W


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1212 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:47 am

tolakram wrote:I think we are seeing what happens when an LLC runs smack into a very tall mountain. I wonder if anything except a weak MLC will make it to the other side?


I think that is exactly what has already happened, take a look!

Image
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1213 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:50 am

somethingfunny wrote:
tolakram wrote:I think we are seeing what happens when an LLC runs smack into a very tall mountain. I wonder if anything except a weak MLC will make it to the other side?


I think that is exactly what has already happened, take a look!

http://i.imgur.com/tTG9Tl8.gif


Probs, though a big burst of convection just happen. Center probs slightly onshore.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1214 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:53 am

Take a good look at the satellite loop above this post. The LLC is way west of Hawaii. It decoupled from the MLC. lt's the MLC that is making landfall on the island now. Center is near where my crosshairs are on the image below. This explains the sudden slow-down of the storm. It didn't slow down, it made landfall and is continuing west. It's the mid level center that is hanging way behind. Note the lower pressures on the west side of Hawaii.

Image
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#1215 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:58 am

The sustained wind at Mauna Kea's summit is now 34mph and from the south. Whatever circulation exists at 13,000 feet.... is west of Mauna Kea.

It flipped back to a southeast wind just after I hit post. :lol:

... and now it's an east wind. I don't know anymore lol. It's been an east wind for most of the night, seeing that south wind was very odd.
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#1216 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:05 am

WTPA63 PHFO 081245
TCUCP3

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
245 AM HST FRI AUG 8 2014

...CENTER OF ISELLE MAKES LANDFALL...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 230 AM
HST...1230 UTC...ALONG THE KAU COAST ON THE BIG ISLAND...ABOUT 5
MILES EAST OF PAHALA.

SUMMARY OF 245 AM HST...1245 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 155.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...64 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

$$

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#1217 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:15 am

WTPA33 PHFO 081305
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33B
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
300 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2014

...THE CENTER OF WEAKENING ISELLE HAS MOVED ASHORE NEAR PAHALA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 155.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...
AND KAHOOLAWE.
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 155.4 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTY
LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISELLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AS WELL AS
ROCK AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE ARE PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND
DAMAGING SURF...MAINLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND. THIS DAMAGING SURF WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BIG ISLAND WINDWARD AND KAU...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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#1218 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:18 am

EP, 09, 2014080812, , BEST, 0, 192N, 1554W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 50, 20, 90, 1012, 160, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, M,

Weakening over land.
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1219 Postby HurricaneBelle » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:32 am

wxman57 wrote:Take a good look at the satellite loop above this post. The LLC is way west of Hawaii. It decoupled from the MLC. lt's the MLC that is making landfall on the island now. Center is near where my crosshairs are on the image below. This explains the sudden slow-down of the storm. It didn't slow down, it made landfall and is continuing west. It's the mid level center that is hanging way behind. Note the lower pressures on the west side of Hawaii.


Looks like someone either independently came up with this observation right after your post, or decided to claim it as his own, and got retweeted by Jim Cantore on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/4 ... 5034714112
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Re: CPAC: ISELLE - Tropical Storm

#1220 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:36 am

The eyewall came in right over the lava flats where the magma empties into the ocean.

Where the eye came in is barren land and the volcanic east slope of Muana Loa. There's nothing there.
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