ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 72...Vort north of Haiti looks real good...EURO poised for takeoff.

[ericinmia]

HWRF and the Euro may align with the same idea of that Ridge being centered further south and stronger.... differing from the GFDL and the GFS and CMC. We will see...

Through 96hrs on the Euro, The Ridge appears to be building... Comparing the 0hrs-96hrs.


44hrs



72hrs



96hrs

[deltadog03]

Night and day diff. through hour 96...moving WNW into the Bahamas

[Hammy]

The way I see it, the weaker Euro runs are equivalent of the "recalculating" screen on a GPS--it made a wrong turn with the track, and takes a run or two to recalculate it and now we're getting a better idea with this one what may happen.

edit: I believe there also may be some flip-flopping between the 0z and 12z for the next few days, as the 0z runs the last two days have had afternoon recon data to input into them.

[SouthFLTropics]

How strong is it showing Delta...my resolution isn't that great.

[SFLcane]

[deltadog03]

EURO looks like its a TS or maybe a weak Cane...heading toward MIA and SFL by hour114-120 ish. Nothing super strong like a few runs ago, but def. stronger than what it had from the 12z run. night!

[northjaxpro]

Nice ridge north of Erika on that run.

[SouthFLTropics]

That looks like a perfect environment for strengthening. And only one direction to go with all the high pressure around.

[deltadog03]

How strong is it showing Delta...my resolution isn't that great.

mine either...but "guessing" it would be a TS, maybe a Hurricane. Not as strong as a few runs ago, but not the weak mess that was 12z.

[deltadog03]

I will say that it does look like its strengthening on the way into SFL tho! on a WNW movement into SFL by hr126

[Hammy]

I will say that it does look like its strengthening on the way into SFL tho! on a WNW movement into SFL by hr126

Looking like an almost straight line of movement from where it's currently at?

[SouthFLTropics]

Seems like the HWRF and the Euro have been comparing notes. We'll see if the GFS decides to join the rest of the class at 06z.

[SFLcane]

Yikes...and this has recon data.

[chaser1]

Okay folks, 120 hour EURO has what I believe to be a min. hurricane half way between Andros Island and S. Florida, moving WNW. I'm thinking that this is the point where the Euro might continue consistency with future runs. I have a sense too, that the GFS will likely begin to turn around and show a slightly more significant system on the 12Z run, but certainly likely on subsequent runs tomm. Had it not been for Erika's late night bursting along with the EURO coming stronger again and in line with the HWRF... I might be very doubtful, but am starting to get a sense that this may well be the real deal and tomm. will most certainly prove very interesting.

[northjaxpro]

On that run, EURO has Erika strenthening just on her approach to SE Florida.

[boca]

Will these runs get incorporated into the 5am advisory from the NHC?

[ericinmia]

Will these runs get incorporated into the 5am advisory from the NHC?

Absolutely....

With the way that the NHC alters track and guidance, I would only expect a slight shift south of day 5. And the intensity to remain the same on day 5, maybe a hurricane again on day 4... Depending upon if they want to up the warning "planning" time for municipalities in the Bahamas. Sadly, people plan differently for a 75mph hurricane then they do for a 68mph TS.

[Hammy]

Will these runs get incorporated into the 5am advisory from the NHC?

I would certainly assume so, they'll probably keep the intensities the same though as 120 hours seems to be about the time it reaches hurricane intensity. It probably gives a bit more certainty to the track, now that Euro and HWRF are lining up, and with the UKMET showing a stronger storm the whole time.

Interestingly, back in late May/early June I was checking the August time frame of the British CFS long range model,and it had some sort of tropical system impacting Florida between about Aug 25-Sep 5 (bounced around a bit).

[northjaxpro]

Okay folks, 120 hour EURO has what I believe to be a min. hurricane half way between Andros Island and S. Florida, moving WNW. I'm thinking that this is the point where the Euro might continue consistency with future runs. I have a sense too, that the GFS will likely begin to turn around and show a slightly more significant system on the 12Z run, but certainly likely on subsequent runs tomm. Had it not been for Erika's late night bursting along with the EURO coming stronger again and in line with the HWRF... I might be very doubtful, but am starting to get a sense that this may well be the real deal and tomm. will most certainly prove very interesting.

I agree with you. Things are about to get very interesting and serious! Within 5 days now of this event.