Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#141 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:09 pm

ULL shear will kill it or at least stop it from organizing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#142 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:17 pm

Latest image, convection on the increase right near the LLC (around 15N, 45W):

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#143 Postby Steve H. » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:22 pm

If UL conditions were better the former 96L would come to life, but it still is there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#144 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:25 pm

its closer to 30W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#145 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:26 pm

No mention in 2PM TWO, but I really wasn't expecting one
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#146 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:26 pm

perhaps I have this confused with the wave behind 96L
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Ex - Invest 96L

#147 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 2:58 pm

Seems to have a pretty decent vort structure out near 15N 47W...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =Animation
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Re: Ex - Invest 96L

#148 Postby blp » Tue Aug 02, 2016 10:42 pm

AJC3 wrote:Seems to have a pretty decent vort structure out near 15N 47W...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =Animation


Indeed
Image
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Re: Ex-Invest 96L

#149 Postby panamatropicwatch » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:30 pm

Probably won't be long before it gets another number.
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Re: Ex-Invest 96L

#150 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:37 pm

i notice same it let if low was with it get any stronger and storm get round it plug see dry air dont get pull in too it as day few days back i got feeling we be going La Niña busy part season very soon
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Re: Ex-Invest 96L

#151 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 03, 2016 6:56 am

Image
Marginal persistent convection with ex-96L... I could see NHC marking this spot soon...
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Re: Ex-Invest 96L

#152 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:20 am

Blown Away wrote:Image
Marginal persistent convection with ex-96L... I could see NHC marking this spot soon...


The mimic satellite run shows the deep surge. I'll go back and edit the post to include in the models up to 16 days out, but there looks like a possibility down the line. If it's not a named system, it's at least a strong tropical surge coming to the islands and then the Caribbean.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... basin=natl
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Re: Ex-Invest 96L

#153 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Aug 03, 2016 12:59 pm

The giant ULL that was shearing it has lifted out to the point where I barely see it on the Central ATL WV loop. I wouldn't completely write it off. It looks like convection is starting to pulse and consolidate a little.
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Re: Ex-Invest 96L

#154 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:16 pm

A 1014 low pressure has reformed near the 14N...

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016


Tropical wave extends from 12N49W to 20N48W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing as depicted in
global model analyses between 45W-53W with a low-level circulation
center
focused on a 1014 mb low centered along the wave axis near
14N.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 14N-19N between
49W-55W.
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Re: Ex-Invest 96L

#155 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 03, 2016 1:21 pm

There is a low-level vorticity that has remained in tact:

Image
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Re: Ex-Invest 96L

#156 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:18 pm

Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rgb.html
Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rb.html

Very broad and shallow circulation with some deep convection popping... Still no model support...
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Re: Ex - Invest 96L

#157 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 03, 2016 4:30 pm

blp wrote:
AJC3 wrote:Seems to have a pretty decent vort structure out near 15N 47W...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =Animation


Indeed
http://oi66.tinypic.com/2vsf2mo.jpg

That looks more like 12N 47W to me.
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Re: Ex - Invest 96L

#158 Postby AJC3 » Wed Aug 03, 2016 5:10 pm

abajan wrote:
blp wrote:
AJC3 wrote:Seems to have a pretty decent vort structure out near 15N 47W...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =Animation


Indeed
http://oi66.tinypic.com/2vsf2mo.jpg

That looks more like 12N 47W to me.


That post is >24 hours old and I was eyeballing where the convective cluster was on that large satellite time lapse at the time.

Obviously, the ASCAT pass posted later showed the LLC was a few degrees south of convective cluster, which was on the NW flank of the wave axis.
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Re: Ex-Invest 96L

#159 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 03, 2016 7:15 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016

Tropical wave extends from 11N-20N with axis near 52W, moving W
at 25 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear.
CIRA LPW imagery from
surface to 850 mb show the wave is embedded in a very moist
environment that along with a middle level diffluent environment support

scattered showers west of the axis from 15N-21N between 51W and
56W.
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Re: Ex - Invest 96L

#160 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 03, 2016 8:00 pm

AJC3 wrote:
abajan wrote:

That looks more like 12N 47W to me.


That post is >24 hours old and I was eyeballing where the convective cluster was on that large satellite time lapse at the time.

Obviously, the ASCAT pass posted later showed the LLC was a few degrees south of convective cluster, which was on the NW flank of the wave axis.

Exactly. It was blp's image to which I was referring, not yours.
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