Gulf Coast Disturbance (early August)

[Aric Dunn]

Very interesting developments tonight/morning. We now have a much better organized disturbance that is still over very warm waters and not moving much. IMO

yeah its still has its issues.. but pressures are clearly falling now.

given the surface obs. the low lever center still appears to be west between cedar key and horseshoe beach midlevel is displaced and what we are seeing on radar. but low level circ liekly to kep reforming with convection.

[Alyono]

SSD has a 1.5 on this

If this were 100 miles offshore, we would have something

[Aric Dunn]

SSD has a 1.5 on this

If this were 100 miles offshore, we would have something

yeah it has potential.. if florida was not flat and swamp where its at it would not even be this far along.

[Aric Dunn]

as the pressure keeps falling the convection is expanding in all directions. now spreading inland and becoming wide spread. flooding will be a concern..

[Aric Dunn]

pressure still falling..

[Nimbus]

West coast of Florida could stand a 24 hour rain event, its been a dry summer overall and the wells can use the top up. I`m afraid its wishful thinking that this area will get pulled out to the northeast over the Atlantic fairly quickly as per some models suggest.

There is an upper low to the southeast and some ridging to the north that potentially could steer this circulation west or even SW out over warm gulf waters. NHC is probably wise to wait and see which steering dynamics are going to win before committing to an initialization.

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure located inland over north-central
Florida near Cross City, continues to produce a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the Gulf of Mexico. This
system is drifting northeastward to northward, and is expected to
move father inland today and Monday before significant development
can occur. Heavy rainfall is forecast over portions of the north-
central Florida peninsula, and possibly over parts of the Florida
panhandle, during the next few days that could result in flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[NDG]

Surface circulation is inland this morning, while the mid level vorticity is still near the coast, which makes sense because of NE winds in the upper levels.

[StormHunter72]

Was always just forecast to be a rain event.

[ronjon]

Lowest pressure near Cedar Key is 1010 mb. Could be classified as a TD in my mind but regardless weather will be the same. I'm getting hammered with heavy squalls in Hernando Beach. I measured 4 inches of rain yesterday and I'm close to another 4 inches so far this morning and training cells keep coming off the gulf this am.

[StormHunter72]

Lowest pressure near Cedar Key is 1010 mb. Could be classified as a TD in my mind but regardless weather will be the same. I'm getting hammered with heavy squalls in Hernando Beach. I measured 4 inches of rain yesterday and I'm close to another 4 inches so far this morning and training cells keep coming off the gulf this am.

Becoming elongated

[tropicwatch]

Lowest pressure near Cedar Key is 1010 mb. Could be classified as a TD in my mind but regardless weather will be the same. I'm getting hammered with heavy squalls in Hernando Beach. I measured 4 inches of rain yesterday and I'm close to another 4 inches so far this morning and training cells keep coming off the gulf this am.

Becoming elongated

I would think very elongated. Pressures in Panama City and at the buoys south of Panama City, are almost as low as they are by Cross City.

[MGC]

Low level circulation is now well inland. Unless it moves back over the water or a new circulation forms over the ocean not much besides a heavy rain event is going to occur......MGC

[NDG]

It feels very tropical out there with the first line of squalls coming through Orlando, heavy rains & gusty winds with no thunder. Had it not come inland this would had been a TD this morning but it is currently under 20-30 knots of easterly windshear, very typical of a subtropical monsoonal type stalled trough.

[ronjon]

I think the low level swirl was just a votice spit out from the larger mid level circulation that's been pretty much stationary near Cedar Key. Atmospheric pressure, as noted by others, is lower over a much broader area. As long as that mid level center stays vigorous and stationary, training of cells will continue along the nature coast from st pete to cedar key. And it's always possible a new low level center could develop somewhere else. Btw, my two day rainfall total is 8.35 inches and its still raining.

[NDG]

Mid level circulation is still along the coast.
Citrus & Levy County need to keep an eye on the training squalls getting ready to move inland over the next few hours. Nasty day across west Central FL.

[Steve]

Get some photos up ronjohn if you see anything worth shooting - flooded street, low hanging black clouds or whatever.

You don't hear this every day, but nice job with the NAM 18z yesterday with the decoupling and ejection of the lower-mid level circulation (showed it at 850 but not 500) it kept intact over the southeast and into South Carolina in a day or two. Now you never want to double down on the NAM, but sometimes in the subtropics it can beat the globals. So what happens on today's 12z run is as follows:

1) ejected low center which is just around that cut where GA digs into the panhandle (Baker County/Macklenny area) moves slowly inland through southeast Georgia (near the coast but inland) toward the GA/South Carolina border and starts to retrograde as the vorticity reduces.

2) More vorticity at 850 forms to the South of the first ejected low in Apalachee Bay east of Panacea/Pelican Pointe. This moves almost due north and runs a line up through Western Georgia and then curves NW.

3) more vorticity forms over Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties and retrogrades along the coast toward the Al/MS coasts before jumping back toward SE Al.

So what my read is on this is that NAM essentially tracks 3 low level centers over the next 4 days. It's essentially a pattern repeat from what happened last night two more times but each time another 100-125 miles farther west.

[Steve]

Also it's got a wrap up looking like a TS off the US SE Coast heading toward southeastern North Carolina. No idea if that develops or gets close to the coast, but that's looking like the next classified system in 3-4 days as per NAM.

[NDG]

It makes sense why the Euro shows a low pressure/vorticity hanging around for days along the gulf coast. So in another words the mid level vorticity will will hang around for a while and shoot off weak surface lows from time to time as the system as a whole retrogrades slowly westward.

[hurricanehunter69]

Visible satellite clearly shows a damn near "well defined" surface circulation leaving the mid level circulation behind this morning. We would also have a "much" greater chance at the F storm, if it just had a little more of a eastward tilt to it's movement. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html