ATL: JULIA - Models
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ATL: JULIA - Models
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- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
I don't see any of the major models developing this as of 00/06Z today's runs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
ironically, now that it is an invest, the (12Z) CMC for the first time in several days no longer likes this for development into a TC. Keep in mind, however, that it was initialized as next to nothing. It is going to be kind of hard to get a TC to develop on a model from something with no LLC initialization. There has been a LLC for at least 3 days.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
The 12zEuro seems to have 93L right near Daytona Beach at 120hrs seems to try to develop this around 96hrs. I wonder if this could become more in the Bahamas than many are thinking
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Fish
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
StormHunter72 wrote:Fish
You're looking at the wave at 35W that isn't 93L. 93L is at 57W
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
18z... What is the TAB?
18z... Seems most intensity models never seen a system they didn't like...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
After "landfall" in NE Florida, the 12z Euro turns the system almost due west. We can infer that a high pressure will be building to its north in the long range. As always, the ultimate path of the system will come down to timing.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
12z Euro... Landfalls a peanut into NE Florida in 5 days...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:The 12zEuro seems to have 93L right near Daytona Beach at 120hrs seems to try to develop this around 96hrs. I wonder if this could become more in the Bahamas than many are thinking
Agreed. The non-CMC models have been underplaying this imo and they aren't initializing it well. Even with that underplaying, the 12Z Euro is showing a sfc low first start forming from it Sat night in the Bahamas and is the first run showing a surface low from 93L crossing land (Bahamas/FL). By the way, on runs from yesterday/TUE, the Euro was already showing 850 vorticity from 93L getting to the SE CONUS next week.
This definitely needs to be watched as it could turn out to be a sneaky problem for the Bahamas/SE CONUS next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Blown Away wrote:18z... What is the TAB?
18z... Seems most intensity models never seen a system they didn't like...
I believe it is some kind of Trajectory model. Like the BAM model, it is run with 3 variants (shallow, medium and deep layers)
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- AJC3
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:Blown Away wrote:18z... What is the TAB?
18z... Seems most intensity models never seen a system they didn't like...
I believe it is some kind of Trajectory model. Like the BAM model, it is run with 3 variants (shallow, medium and deep layers)
Yup. It's the "Trajectory And Beta" model, as opposed to the Beta and Advection Model (BAM) that you referenced.
I can't find any official reference to it on the NHC model description page. The only references you get if you Google it are from other pages like...
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?page=models
http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mode ... age=models
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
The UKMET tries to start development as it moves into the NE coast of Florida:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Once again, the GFS (18Z) is initializing 93L as almost nothing at the surface. I wonder if there have been any recent ship or buoy reports from the area.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Well, the CMC is back to liking this. It starts to become a closed surface low at only hour 36 several hundred miles north of PR and it becomes a hurricane that grazes NC on Wed. 9/14 before turning right and going OTS. The 0Z GFS, like prior runs, doesn't develop it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
The 00z GFS favors ex-92L. The vorticity of 93L is stretched out and being absorbed by 92L at 72 hours (red line to indicate 93L)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Interestingly, the 0Z Euro is the 2nd Euro run in a row that kind of likes 93L for FL with its 850 my vorticity moving to Jacksonville at hour 120 (9/14) though it has no closed surface low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Looks like it has a closed low at 48 hours on the 00z ECMWF before conditions deteriorate and 93L weakens:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
For what it's worth, 00z CMC has an organized system making landfall near the Outer Banks:
00z UKMET has no development.
00z UKMET has no development.
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