ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1787
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
- Location: Orlando
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Yes, I don't know that this system has a great future due to all that dry air. The NHC in their statement say that in the next few days conditions become less conducive than it currently has.
0 likes
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 20
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
I think this is more proof that once SAL goes away, the MDR will be cranking
0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
weathaguyry wrote:I think this is more proof that once SAL goes away, the MDR will be cranking
SAL is a double edged sword. When we have SAL, we have stronger waves because of the contrast between the rain forest and the desert. 2005 showed what happens when there is no SAL. The waves are very weak, but they can develop in the western part of the basin as they eventually find favorable condition
2 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139334
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
@BigJoeBastardi
not much hope for 96L IMO too much dry air.. self destruct intensification ala Don, if anything at all
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/887339204501540865
not much hope for 96L IMO too much dry air.. self destruct intensification ala Don, if anything at all
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/887339204501540865
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- ScottNAtlanta
- Category 5
- Posts: 2006
- Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
- Location: Atlanta, GA
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:Like with TD#4 even if this finds a much better environment down the road I wouldn't count too much on this amounting to much. The only thing it has going for it is this potentially becoming Emily which seems to always make a run at retirement.
Every other cycle...and this is the one
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139334
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a
well-defined low pressure system located over a 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development
of this system is possible during the next two days while it moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that
time, environmental conditions are forecast to become hostile for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
well-defined low pressure system located over a 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development
of this system is possible during the next two days while it moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that
time, environmental conditions are forecast to become hostile for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Looking better this afternoon well defined circ that has become more circular throughout the morning with new convection building. its a large circulation and has a pretty good shot if it can keep convection sporadically. it may stay farther south at this rate.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 7287
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Looking better this afternoon well defined circ that has become more circular throughout the morning with new convection building. its a large circulation and has a pretty good shot if it can keep convection sporadically. it may stay farther south at this rate.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Briefly looking at the visables of Don and this, I'd say that the LLC's are similar in organizion. Easterly shear is effecting it but during the past hour there does appear to be a healthy blow up of convection. It wouldn't take much as you said above to make this a depression as we'd only need a ascat or buoy/ship report to confirm that this is closed with consistent convection.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1242
- Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:@BigJoeBastardi
not much hope for 96L IMO too much dry air.. self destruct intensification ala Don, if anything at all
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/887339204501540865
Could be time to begin some evacuations. Lol
2 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
doesn't look all bad but stable air to the north could at any moment be dragged into the circulation. Then poof...
0 likes
- johngaltfla
- Category 5
- Posts: 1938
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Sarasota County, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:@BigJoeBastardi
not much hope for 96L IMO too much dry air.. self destruct intensification ala Don, if anything at all
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/887339204501540865
I'll go with Big Joe on this one.
Any move to the NW/NNW will kill it.
But it is an ominous sign for August that one TS and another Invest has formed in the 2 weeks b4 August 1.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
This is what it needs to keep doing. Another burst of convection over the center. Still needs to be watched since it might end up moving more westerly now.
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
1 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Not dead yet, its still has a heart beat
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Indeed it does. We can keep Bones on the on deck circle just a little while longer with this particular system.
2 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
The upper high and the center have been becoming more aligned. shear has dropped a lot. let's see if this convective burst can maintain and expand a little.
3 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- cainjamin
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 163
- Age: 33
- Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:38 pm
- Location: Nova Scotia, Canada
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Looking pretty good tonight. Some possible banding forming to the southwest and northeast of a small convection ball. Looking better than Don ever did IMO.
1 likes
Noel '07, Kyle '08, Earl '10, Arthur '14, Dorian '19, Teddy '20, Lee '23
- AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1805
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
- Location: Plantation,Fla
- AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1805
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
- Location: Plantation,Fla
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
The hostile conditions that the NHC mentions,is that just the sale or is shear also forecast to increase?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests