Florida Weather
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Re: Florida Weather
The remnants of TD 4 is surely bringing in some nice tropical showers to the Peninsula, got caught under one of those heavy tropical downpours, visibility to near zero.
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Re: Florida Weather
NDG wrote:The remnants of TD 4 is surely bringing in some nice tropical showers to the Peninsula, got caught under one of those heavy tropical downpours, visibility to near zero.
Have not heard much thunder with these, also they build up in heights quickly and also collapse quick before they reach the coast in some cases.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
But along the immediate coast of SE Florida north of Miami Beach, not much at all. can see the dark clouds to the west but they are not progressing towards the coast. Further north, West Palm and treasure coast saw some good rains.
There is still some time left before this wave exits the region so I am still hopeful some new storms will develop along coastal SE Florida.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
The rains finally arrived at my locale. NWS Miami mentions another tropical wave to arrive tomorrow.
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- AdamFirst
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Re: Florida Weather
Pattern shift incoming for the east coast, as southeast flow will focus shower development along the east coast seabreeze. Had been relatively dry on the coast since the passage of ex-TD 4.
Melbourne AFD
Melbourne AFD
Monday...Axis of low level high pressure ridge settling slowly south
over the Atlantic will provide a light, mostly southeast/south wind
flow. This will moisten up southern sections early but the residual
dry pocket in the north will take until late in the day to erode.
Likely POPs look to be in order in the south, then taper to 40
percent on the north coast where convective initiation should be
delayed. The GFS shows 0-6km mean flow from the south/southwest,
but light at only 5 knots. With this offshore steering trajectory,
albeit weak, and the increased moisture, expect convective
initiation on the sea breeze to be closer to the Space/Treasure
Coasts. Therefore, likely POPs should encompass more of the
populated sections there.
Tuesday-Sunday...
Mid-level trough over southeast states early will shift offshore
by late week. This will inhibit the Atlantic subtropical ridge
from shifting back north, so some low level south/southwest winds
will persist into next weekend. High moisture is indicated through
about Thu, which will require likely POPs (50-60 percent) for
most of the area.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Finally a day with storms moving to the east towards the coast. Looks like we may have another day like this tomorrow though a bit less in coverage. The east wind pattern has mostly dominated this summer so far.
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Re: Florida Weather
gatorcane wrote:Finally a day with storms moving to the east towards the coast. Looks like we may have another day like this tomorrow though a bit less in coverage. The east wind pattern has mostly dominated this summer so far.
It's been just the opposite here in West Central FL.this month. Can't say I'm a fan of it either.Late morning early afternoon thunder, sometimes not even ANY rain just a threat of it. Makes outdoor planning difficult. Hope we can go back to just late aft.storms soon.
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Re: Florida Weather
Storms haven't exactly been lighting up the sky over here on the east coast lately. Is this ridge-y pattern going to persist well into August and September? If so, peak hurricane season could get interesting.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
A rather hot day across South Florida today, late October when the first front usually moves through can't come soon enough.
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Re: Florida Weather
I can deal with the heat as long as I get some afternoon storms to knock it down. This has been yet another summer where that doesn't happen for days, sometimes weeks at a time.
Looks like a little upper level twist is entering the area....wonder if this can actually help get anything going near the SE coast for once. NWS Miami doesn't seem to think so until the weekend, but I'll hold out hope.
Looks like a little upper level twist is entering the area....wonder if this can actually help get anything going near the SE coast for once. NWS Miami doesn't seem to think so until the weekend, but I'll hold out hope.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Finally we are getting some SW steering flow and a good chance of afternoon T-storms across South Florida East coast metro areas. For the most part this summer it has been hot, dry, and dusty at times with all storms pushed well inland or to the SW coast of Florida.
NWS Disco snippet from 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017. Also the BOLD part is interesting.
This weekend and next week: Southwesterly flow will prevail through
the weekend as upper level low over the northeast plains deepens an
elongated trough along the east coast. This trough is expected to
remain in place through next week, potentially digging as far south
to Fl bringing an unseasonably robust surface front into the state
Monday, potentially reaching as far south as Central FL. Abundant
deep moisture ahead of the front will result in an increase period
of precipitation through mid week across South FL, with a few
more stronger storms possible as temps aloft cool down. Western
Atlantic ridge gradually retrogrades westward returning se flow
across south FL and as a result lifting the moist boundary north.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorm through the end
of the week but with less coverage into Friday.
NWS Disco snippet from 328 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017. Also the BOLD part is interesting.
This weekend and next week: Southwesterly flow will prevail through
the weekend as upper level low over the northeast plains deepens an
elongated trough along the east coast. This trough is expected to
remain in place through next week, potentially digging as far south
to Fl bringing an unseasonably robust surface front into the state
Monday, potentially reaching as far south as Central FL. Abundant
deep moisture ahead of the front will result in an increase period
of precipitation through mid week across South FL, with a few
more stronger storms possible as temps aloft cool down. Western
Atlantic ridge gradually retrogrades westward returning se flow
across south FL and as a result lifting the moist boundary north.
There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorm through the end
of the week but with less coverage into Friday.
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Re: Florida Weather
Wow, showers are now firing along the coast, a day or so before they were supposed to. It's a miracle! lol
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- AdamFirst
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Re: Florida Weather
After a scorching past few days here (mid 90s with heat indices approaching the upper 100s), pattern shift in store tomorrow with plenty of rain for the next few days, with a stalling cold front and developing low pressure setting up a multi-day precipitation event.
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Re: Florida Weather
AdamFirst wrote:After a scorching past few days here (mid 90s with heat indices approaching the upper 100s), pattern shift in store tomorrow with plenty of rain for the next few days, with a stalling cold front and developing low pressure setting up a multi-day precipitation event.
Also need to watch the eastern GOM for possible tropical development the next 2 to 3 days as the front lifts north possibly leaving something behind
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Re: Florida Weather
As usual with messy tropical systems that hit the west coast, a fair bit of Emily's rain is making it over to the east coast. It has been intermittent moderate-heavy showers all day.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
NWS Miami Mainland South Florida hurricane climatology article:
"Since 1851, a total of 20 named storms have affected Mainland South Florida during the month of August, including 10 hurricanes, 5 of which were major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). Historical records show that August ranks third in the number of hurricanes affecting Mainland South Florida, behind September and October."
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q= ... gPjWZ-syOw
"Since 1851, a total of 20 named storms have affected Mainland South Florida during the month of August, including 10 hurricanes, 5 of which were major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). Historical records show that August ranks third in the number of hurricanes affecting Mainland South Florida, behind September and October."
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q= ... gPjWZ-syOw
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Re: Florida Weather
If we could just cut to autumn right now, that'd be great.
Thankfully the sun angle will start to wane soon.
Thankfully the sun angle will start to wane soon.
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Re: Florida Weather
The sun can't start waning soon enough. I just read that El Nino may not develop. Will we even have a Fall and Winter? This last Winter and Fall were not satisfying. It was to warm and dry. We haven't received enough rain this Summer in my area at least. I have been here since 1978. The climate here has certainly changed a lot since then. Yesterday it was 105 in my backyard, bright sun cooking us. Suddenly there was a nice shower out of nowhere with the sun still shining brightly. The temperature dropped to 95 but later climbed back up into the 100s. I want Fall. I want low 80s. I want rain. I want a lot. LOL
Seriously, though. What is the outlook for Fall and Winter this year?
Seriously, though. What is the outlook for Fall and Winter this year?
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Taffy-SW Florida
Re: Florida Weather
Taffy wrote:The sun can't start waning soon enough. I just read that El Nino may not develop. Will we even have a Fall and Winter? This last Winter and Fall were not satisfying. It was to warm and dry. We haven't received enough rain this Summer in my area at least. I have been here since 1978. The climate here has certainly changed a lot since then. Yesterday it was 105 in my backyard, bright sun cooking us. Suddenly there was a nice shower out of nowhere with the sun still shining brightly. The temperature dropped to 95 but later climbed back up into the 100s. I want Fall. I want low 80s. I want rain. I want a lot. LOL
Seriously, though. What is the outlook for Fall and Winter this year?
Who knows. The past several years, I feel that our "first fronts" of fall have been arriving earlier and earlier, often early to mid October, which always gets people excited about winter, but then we get into December and January, and it's warm with very little in the way of substantial cool hits.
It's probably just due to the timing of the NAO, PNA and all that, but in the past, it often seems that if the fronts hold off longer for us, we're more likely to get really "cold" in December and January. This is what happened in the winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11. It was warm all fall and then the NAO tanked at just the right time both years. If we go NAO negative in October and November, only to have it flip strongly in the other direction December-February, that's a winter-cancel for us. hahaha
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