ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

[PTrackerLA]

There's the curve ball I've been waiting for in the modeling. The agreement between the GFS and Euro was too good to be true yesterday at this time. The Euro taking Irma over Cuba was the first fly in the ointment now we have the GFS turning north well east of Florida in great contrast to the Euro. Extremely difficult days ahead since we're dealing with a cat 5 and models at odds with each other .

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

GFS also has this moving north of the islands, which this is very unlikely to do. Wouldn't give much weight to this run

[Raebie]

Is Carolina out of the woods this run?

No and it won't be out of the woods for days.

I was speaking about this run of the GFS specifically.

And that's still a gigantic no.

[Evil Jeremy]

Great sign from GFS, but futile until more models make the same shift. Hopefully the start of a trend...

[NDG]

The eastward shift by the GFS is what now worries me, now a track over the FL Peninsula is now becoming more apparent, I am sure it will shift back west during the next runs.
Lets not forget that the GFS was right biased with Irma over the Leeward Islands in its 5-7 day range.

[meriland29]

She made a jog NNE instead of NE, ridge may start driving her now.

[NDG]

Great sign from GFS, but futile until more models make the same shift. Hopefully the start of a trend...

If it was the Euro yes, but coming from the GFS not so much. IMO.

[tolakram]

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yeah..Not good...

Speed difference is the biggest change I see. Better for SFL, but worse for NC. Have to see Euro to even give this weight. First 48 hours of this run look suspect to me

[meriland29]

About to hit SC/NC. What are the ocean temps there, does the gulf stream run thereabouts?

[Ken711]

Does the GFS tend to underestimate or over estimate ridges compared to the Euro?

[ConvergenceZone]

There's probably only about a 2or 3% chance that this goes out to sea

[ava_ati]

I can't believe the GFS continues to trend east, when the NHC and the UKMET is trending west... Very strange indeed.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Does the GFS tend to underestimate or over estimate ridges compared to the Euro?

Tends to underestimate ridges and overdo troughs.

[South Texas Storms]

Does the GFS tend to underestimate or over estimate ridges compared to the Euro?

GFS tends to be right biased and normally overestimates troughs compared to the Euro.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Great sign from GFS, but futile until more models make the same shift. Hopefully the start of a trend...

If it was the Euro yes, but coming from the GFS not so much. IMO.

Not only that, but a 18z run... I'd feel better if this was a 12z shift.

[MatthewsRevenge]

18z GFS is real off. They must think that trough will push this away for a SC coast hit and an OBX scrape. I mean we knew the Carolinas weren't totally out of the picture but this seems like they're trying to find consensus to UK than Euro.

[Ken711]

I can't believe the GFS continues to trend east, when the NHC and the UKMET is trending west... Very strange indeed.

UKMET trended east.