Texas Winter 2017-2018
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
- starsfan65
- Category 2
- Posts: 675
- Age: 46
- Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:18 pm
- Location: Garland,Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
There is no change in the 18z run from the 12z run. It is still got freezing rain around Christmas.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37140
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yup big storm again on the 18z gfs looks like rain to ice then snow the day after Christmas long duration
1 likes
#neversummer
- starsfan65
- Category 2
- Posts: 675
- Age: 46
- Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:18 pm
- Location: Garland,Tx
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I will be out of town on Christmas Eve and Day. So I have to keep an eye on this forecast.Brent wrote:Yup big storm again on the 18z gfs looks like rain to ice then snow the day after Christmas long duration
2 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37140
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Heavy snow into most of the metroplex on Christmas Eve night
4 likes
#neversummer
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 253
- Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:39 pm
- Location: Jonesboro ar
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Hi bubba. I know the euro eps is further east with trough, but is there any chance it can shift west again? Mjo is supposed to move into different phases so I wasn't sure. What phases are good for us then?
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22498
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
One thing to keep in mind while looking at these 2-week forecasts of the GFS - the GFS didn't catch on to last week's snow event until about 48-60 hours before it happened. We may not have a good idea of what will happen until around the 22nd.
5 likes
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1398
- Age: 42
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
wxman57 wrote:One thing to keep in mind while looking at these 2-week forecasts of the GFS - the GFS didn't catch on to last week's snow event until about 48-60 hours before it happened. We may not have a good idea of what will happen until around the 22nd.
A wise heat miser once told me to look at the upper air pattern
I just want a frigid Christmas. Snow or sleet would just be lagniappe
4 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37140
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:wxman57 wrote:One thing to keep in mind while looking at these 2-week forecasts of the GFS - the GFS didn't catch on to last week's snow event until about 48-60 hours before it happened. We may not have a good idea of what will happen until around the 22nd.
A wise heat miser once told me to look at the upper air pattern
I just want a frigid Christmas. Snow or sleet would just be lagniappe
This pretty much
A storm is a fun idea but we know how fantasy land is. At least there seems to be some support for the idea and not just typical 300 hour gfs
I'm just optimistic in it being cold for now and we can figure out specifics later
And of course last event the gfs had in fantasy then lost it(remember when DFW wouldnt have a freeze? Lol) and still came back and happened so
0 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I wouldn't even worry about Christmas yet. There is yet still a fairly significant trough/vorticity coming through this weekend. Models are dry and not terribly cold but who knows...850mb temps once again are quite chilly. With low pressure in the n gulf bound to be some kind of mischief somewhere. Surface temps in the low 40s as the low passes by on the Euro.
Models had a winter storm for this period some time ago, lost it for awhile and has quietly brought it back.
Models had a winter storm for this period some time ago, lost it for awhile and has quietly brought it back.
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1398
- Age: 42
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37140
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Ntxw wrote:I wouldn't even worry about Christmas yet. There is yet still a fairly significant trough/vorticity coming through this weekend. Models are dry and not terribly cold but who knows...850mb temps once again are quite chilly. With low pressure in the n gulf bound to be some kind of mischief somewhere. Surface temps in the low 40s as the low passes by on the Euro.
http://i63.tinypic.com/2ij4754.png
Models had a winter storm for this period some time ago, lost it for awhile and has quietly brought it back.
Was wondering about this there was talk today elsewhere of another snow event in alabama. Hopefully itll be a bit more northwest if there is something
1 likes
#neversummer
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5603
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017121018/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png
If that were to verify, the Hammer is coming down after that southern vort kicks out.
2 likes
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1398
- Age: 42
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
bubba hotep wrote:ThunderSleetDreams wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017121018/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png
If that were to verify, the Hammer is coming down after that southern vort kicks out.
Yep, 580 ridge into Alaska with an eastern ridge ... wooo boy
3 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37140
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:bubba hotep wrote:ThunderSleetDreams wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017121018/gfs_z500a_namer_53.png
If that were to verify, the Hammer is coming down after that southern vort kicks out.
Yep, 580 ridge into Alaska with an eastern ridge ... wooo boy
That's close to the M word isnt it?
0 likes
#neversummer
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1398
- Age: 42
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Brent wrote:ThunderSleetDreams wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
If that were to verify, the Hammer is coming down after that southern vort kicks out.
Yep, 580 ridge into Alaska with an eastern ridge ... wooo boy
That's close to the M word isnt it?
Not a classic Mc Sig but close.
0z GFS running...
0 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1398
- Age: 42
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
This run has the cold front passing thru at the exact same frame as the last 3 runs... so far not looking like much change temp wise
0 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1398
- Age: 42
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
No precip this run but that will change 10 Times between now and Christmas
0 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- ThunderSleetDreams
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1398
- Age: 42
- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Temp output looks on the warm side given the upper air pattern
0 likes
#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I'm a model run late, but I see that the Happy Hour GFS once again lives up to its moniker at the tail end of fantasy land.
1 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
6z again has a winter storm around the 25th. GFS has been pretty consistent in believing something will happen then.
0 likes
Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests