Disturbed Weather in NW Gulf/Texas

[stormreader]

Ok. Jason mentioned what looked like a developing mid level circulation south of La. I’m not much at posting images. But if someone would post a good visible pic of the system. There does look to be some significant and tightening turning developing well south of Cameron, La. No comments here, just saying.

https://image.ibb.co/btPG9d/Webp_net_gifmaker_4.gif

Mid level vort:
https://i.imgur.com/NuALtLT.gif

Thanks

[PSUHiker31]

The Euro did not underestimate Harvey's rainfall totals... They were just misplaced. I remember one run in particular having 60" total pegged near Victoria. I had to write a forecast with that run for my job.

[PTrackerLA]

These squalls that have come through Lafayette have been quite gusty. We've had at least 4 intense tropical downpours roll through and yet the sun comes back out in between each time. Gotta love the deep tropical fetch atmosphere! Confirmed gusts 40-45mph which explains why I came home from Father's Day lunch to several plants knocked over on the patio with dirt scattered everywhere. Good thing I just spent hours yesterday getting the patio in great shape . It definitely looks like trouble brewing in the NW gulf but thankfully it will run out of time. The pattern change over the past week has been great as we had a very early and intense start to "summer" around here. I was pretty concerned about a major drought setting up this summer but it looks like the tropics will save us this year. There's hardly a 90 degree temp in sight for the next 10 days with above average rainfall. 12z Euro is scary for parts of Texas but the way it develops a strong tropical storm in nearly west Texas makes me want to raise the BS flag for the time being. Enjoy the rains LA/TX folks!

[StormChaser75]

I have put together most of the mesoscale and global models that can provide precipitation totals and this is what I have made.

Here is also a rainfall total measurement scale for a guide .

[SoupBone]

The Euro did not underestimate Harvey's rainfall totals... They were just misplaced. I remember one run in particular having 60" total pegged near Victoria. I had to write a forecast with that run for my job.

Didn't say EURO but one definitely had initial forecasted rainfall amounts much lower than actual, though we all know how it turned out. It was ever increasing until it was fairly close to verifying. Fun times!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough is producing a large but disorganized area of
showers and thunderstorms over the west-central and northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Strong gusty winds to near 40 mph are accompanying
some of the stronger thunderstorms. Environmental conditions do
not support significant development. However, heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely to continue across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight. This activity will reach portions of the Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts later tonight and on Monday. For more
details on this disturbance, please see products issued by your
local weather office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Steve]

Different storm but Euro for a few days prior to the BoC had Harvey as a stretched out wave as did GFS. It’s all over that thread because the CMC, while too far north, was keen on the structure as was the NAM. I was watching it like a hawk because I didn’t like what I thought I saw in potential. I was dubious of NAM because Harvey was around 20N which isn’t even in range for the 3km. Plus, it’s the NAM in the tropics. I think the key is to feel them out each year for what they’re doing and measure that against the known bias information one has accumulated. But the thing is, some people state cast and wishcast. Others are married to specific models. If you fall in either of those camps you end up cheerleading and sometimes finding ways to justify something that makes no sense. GFS was poor with this evolution. European was better depicting what is happening. Conversely, I thought the GFS was more useful with Alberto. We will see how it goes. Hopefully EC’s rainfall rates are at least somewhat overblown.

[SoupBone]

The problem in Texas, and specifically the Greater Houston Area, is that the soil is heavily clay. When clay is dry, it makes water absorption difficult, which then leads to higher amounts of initial runoff into waterways. Flash Flooding is a significant risk because of this. I'm hoping the EURO is way overdoing it.

[wxman57]

Agreed, at least 240 for two hourly obs. Outflow should dissipate over that time period. Plus we would be able to see it on visible. I wouldn't cheat.

I'm not seeing any low near Port Arthur this evening, but there are some pretty cold temps just south of the city:

[Alyono]

if anything were to develop, it would be south of Lake Charles and east of Brownsville

[SoupBone]

if anything were to develop, it would be south of Lake Charles and east of Brownsville

So the Gulf of Mexico?

[sphelps8681]

if anything were to develop, it would be south of Lake Charles and east of Brownsville

So SE Texas will get some rain!! LOL. How much you think?

[jasons2k]

I keep watching that mid-level vortex, SE of Galveston, for convergence on the N/NE/E/SE quadrants as it comes ashore. It still has a ways to go overnight.

[Haris]

The NAM is quite dry but TTUWRF is S.O.G.G.Y for CTX!

I personally think quite a bit of wet weather is ahead! Where is the center right now? What do yall think about Austin's chance and totals? I want some feedback since I am learning. I think 3-5? Under , over?

[Steve]

I don’t know. Y’all are fringe like we are here in New Orleans. You’re probably more likely to see more rain than we will. It’s going to come down to how low pressure sets up in Deep South Texas and what it’s tapped into. There’s a lag in ITCZ moisture about 12 degrees back now (assuming SAL dried air and also time from last KW). So if you can get something 50-100 miles inland that’s tapped into the Gulf and or pacific, you have a shot for a few inches. It’s not like a barreling in storm that occasionally makes its way that far west, more rotating moisture. I don’t have a call on amount.

[Haris]

I don’t know. Y’all are fringe like we are here in New Orleans. You’re probably more likely to see more rain than we will. It’s going to come down to how low pressure sets up in Deep South Texas and what it’s tapped into. There’s a lag in ITCZ moisture about 12 degrees back now (assuming SAL dried air and also time from last KW). So if you can get something 50-100 miles inland that’s tapped into the Gulf and or pacific, you have a shot for a few inches. It’s not like a barreling in storm that occasionally makes its way that far west, more rotating moisture. I don’t have a call on amount.

Thank you

[Clearcloudz]

Travis Herzog ABC 13

Full post in link below
https://www.facebook.com/ABC13TravisHerzog/

9:30PM SUNDAY TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE:

So far, so good, but the heaviest rains are still to come. Over the weekend, most of us picked up less than 1” of rain with some isolated pockets closer to 2”. That’s certainly manageable.

Tomorrow, some of us could get almost twice that much rain in a single hour as even deeper tropical moisture blows in.

Accurately predicting how much rain will fall and where it will fall are among the most difficult things to do in meteorology even just a day in advance, much more days in advance. And when it comes to tropical systems, there is always the potential for far greater amounts than what is generally expected.

For example, look at these two rainfall map projections. The top map is an average of the rainfall predictions from several computer model forecasts thru 7PM Monday. It shows generally 1-3” from Houston down to the coast. Now look at the bottom map. This one takes the maximum predicted rainfall for each location from those same models. Now it shows over 7” possible from Houston to the coast, with over 10” offshore. The expectation is the rain will be manageable, but there’s the potential it’s not.

No one can tell you exactly how much rain you’re going to get tomorrow (or the next five days for that matter), but I hope to give you a good feel for how the storms will evolve thru the day when you wake up each morning this week.

The big change to our forecast thinking today is that this low will meander around the central Texas coastline thru at least Thursday, which raises the bar that somewhere in southeast Texas we get more than just street flooding.

And those hefty rain accumulations expected offshore tomorrow will likely move onshore into coastal counties starting Tuesday.

We will do our best every day to keep you informed and aware with what’s happening now and the expectations of what’s to come.

Remember to drive with caution, especially at night. Your vehicle may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase the risk of hydroplaning. And if you come across a flooded underpass at any time the next few days, turn around, don’t drown!

More to come tomorrow.

[South Texas Storms]

The NAM is quite dry but TTUWRF is S.O.G.G.Y for CTX!

I personally think quite a bit of wet weather is ahead! Where is the center right now? What do yall think about Austin's chance and totals? I want some feedback since I am learning. I think 3-5? Under , over?

The models are in such disagreement on rainfall amounts for south central TX including the San Antonio and Austin areas. I agree with the NWS calling for 1-3 inches there. Could be much more or could just be a few showers. We need this disturbance to get as far west as possible to get more rain. If it stays just to our east then we are screwed...

I want the TTU WRF to verify!

[Haris]

The NAM is quite dry but TTUWRF is S.O.G.G.Y for CTX!

I personally think quite a bit of wet weather is ahead! Where is the center right now? What do yall think about Austin's chance and totals? I want some feedback since I am learning. I think 3-5? Under , over?

The models are in such disagreement on rainfall amounts for south central TX including the San Antonio and Austin areas. I agree with the NWS calling for 1-3 inches there. Could be much more or could just be a few showers. We need this disturbance to get as far west as possible to get more rain. If it stays just to our east then we are screwed...

I want the TTU WRF to verify!

Yeah we still dont know what'll happen. Guess this is NOW casting

[Haris]

Hill country gets 0 on euro. high is nudging into stupid TX.

Austin at 3" . Still good but makes me uneasy... Too close for comfort