Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Texas Snowman]

The 2018 summer solstice is coming up this next week and then the Fourth of July is just around the corner.

And you all know what that means - the next season up is autumn and then after that, winter!!!!!!

So let’s get this Texas Winter 2018-2019 thread kicked off with this:

“@BigJoeBastardi — The time will come when winter will ask what you did all summer- Henry Clay My answer: forecast modoki enso and set people up for next winter, Check out JMA forecast vs our current analog package !”

[NotSparta]

Looks like a good winter for you guys. eQBO, low solar, and west-based Niño.

[CaptinCrunch]

June 2018 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch!

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-2018-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-watch

So are we talking a Modoki El Nino? or regular one?

That's a good question. Because CPC's ENSO forecasts are based on the Nino 3.4 SST target, they do not distinguish between Eastern Pacific or Modoki El Nino. There are several reasons why we do not distinguish between the two at this point: (1) there is no universally accepted way of distinguishing Modoki from Eastern Pacific El Nino, (2) Modoki El Nino is essentially equivalent to weak-to-moderate El Nino (you can read more about this here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... avor-month), and it's a bit too early to speculate on El Nino strength, (3) the eastern Pacific SST anomaly distributions are not bimodal between the eastern and central Pacific but instead vary rather continuously across longitudes.

[Brent]

as long as it's not like the 15-16 one... I'm down

[hamburgerman7070]

I think if we see some Eqbo this winter, we should see some -nao/ao. Eqbo normally only last 6 months to a year I believe. I think a west based niño promotes more blocking to occur. It did in 2009-10.

[hamburgerman7070]

Looks like a good winter for you guys. eQBO, low solar, and west-based Niño.

We shall see. I'm still not sold on Eqbo for next winter since it runs in cycles.

[wxman57]

THIS winter will be mine!

[vbhoutex]

THIS winter will be mine!

We will see!!

[Texas Snowman]

THIS winter will be mine!

I guess you can try, so good luck with that.

But since you’re kind of like the Wizard of Oz when it comes to controlling wintertime, we’ll pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at 2009-2010 analogs, i didnt realize there was a cool pool in the GOA/N Pac that year. Where are we expecting the main forcing to be with modiki nino?

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi - Big Weatherbell.com premium post on the Euro/Canadian seasonal ideas and how they are lining up with analogs we had from a couple of months ago for the upcoming winter. We said the Modoki is coming even if slow start, this winter could be a wild one!

[SoupBone]

The 2018 summer solstice is coming up this next week and then the Fourth of July is just around the corner.

And you all know what that means - the next season up is autumn and then after that, winter!!!!!!

So let’s get this Texas Winter 2018-2019 thread kicked off with this:

“@BigJoeBastardi — The time will come when winter will ask what you did all summer- Henry Clay My answer: forecast modoki enso and set people up for next winter, Check out JMA forecast vs our current analog package !”

Ahhh, I'm glad I'm not the only one dreaming of Fall and Winter. I just hope we get a real Fall, and not jump from 95 degrees to Cold. Sometimes, I wish I lived in a state that had 4 real seasons. But I'll take what I can get!

[SoupBone]

THIS winter will be mine!

You can carry yourself OUT of this thread!

[Snowflake7]

I'm just happy to see I'm not the only one ready for fall/winter LOL Hope everyone is enjoying the steam bath these last few days

[Snowflake7]

THIS winter will be mine!

Please for the love of all things cold go easy on us this season!!

[Brent]

I'm just happy to see I'm not the only one ready for fall/winter LOL Hope everyone is enjoying the steam bath these last few days

lol I'm always ready for cooler weather.

[Snowflake7]

I'm just happy to see I'm not the only one ready for fall/winter LOL Hope everyone is enjoying the steam bath these last few days

lol I'm always ready for cooler weather.

Me too!! Counting down the days as we speak!

[Texas Snowman]

It’s 108 degrees right now in Denison.

Boy am I dreaming of a North Texas snowstorm right now!!!!!!

[wxman57]

Let it not be said that I am completely without a heart regarding you cold-lovers. Here's a recent tweet from Michael Ventrice about the long-range winter forecast. Of course, I'll be controlling the winter across Texas...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87bVdhN ... WL&t=1163s

Great video about the effects of low solar and the global climate. At 17:55 he talks about areas that have the most significant impact from low solar.