2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS spins up a surface low in the ITCZ in 30 hrs at 10N 37W.
Look like it'll move into warm water.
Look like it'll move into warm water.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The ECMWF has something now as well, just 48 hours from now:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Bit of interest in a fish latter on thinks ec on the run. Note the other small energy that shoots off towards the gom.
https://imgur.com/aQLRTOE
https://imgur.com/aQLRTOE
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Support of the European fish storm is non-existent from both the EPS and GEFS members.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GEM now has something about but further east of the Euro:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
A couple of EPS ensemble members are hinting at some Cape Verde action after day 10.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Dylan wrote:A couple of EPS ensemble members are hinting at some Cape Verde action after day 10.
Is that with the strong flow coming off Africa at the end of the run? Or is that the wave after?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Cape Verde season will be in full swing in 10 days
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS showing a nice moisture surge near the end of the run.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hammy wrote:https://i.imgur.com/DbWv8Ak.png
GFS showing a nice moisture surge near the end of the run.
Yep and GEFS surface pressure anomalies in the deep MDR are low as well in the long-range when they have been high all season so far. Things could be starting to align for some Cape Verde activity towards end of this month as climo suggests:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
https://imgur.com/ehExsxE
On the plot it appears sst is still on the anonymously cool side across the EQ mdr region.
Last edited by Twisted-core on Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Sep 8th, for example, shows the peak for Majors. Is the graph showing this as the date of storm genisys, the date it became a major, or the # of majors on this particular date?
Nimbus wrote:Cape Verde season will be in full swing in 10 days
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
StrongWind wrote:Sep 8th, for example, shows the peak for Majors. Is the graph showing this as the date of storm genisys, the date it became a major, or the # of majors on this particular date?Nimbus wrote:Cape Verde season will be in full swing in 10 days
I’m almost sure it is # of majors in existence on each date.
Edit: Upon further thought, that has to be what it is. It certainly isn’t # of geneses because otherwise this would be saying there’s, for example, about an average of one TS genesis per year on Sept. 11, which is way higher than reality.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS showing a potential precursor system at the end of the latest run .
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Interesting that UKMET is initializing a wave at 45W/10N but the Euro and GFS don't see anything for now. I wonder if that was the same one that came off Africa a couple of days ago?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
AutoPenalti wrote:Interesting that UKMET is initializing a wave at 45W/10N but the Euro and GFS don't see anything for now. I wonder if that was the same one that came off Africa a couple of days ago?
That wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 9th. It has a close to zero percent chance of developing. Interesting that none of the models develops even a phantom storm over the next week or two (not counting that non-tropical low way up north).
Here's an archived TPW shot of the wave moving off Africa on the 9th:
ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/pub/mtpw2/images/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/201808/comp20180809.130000_tpw.png
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
This place and these threads are so eerily quiet. Hard to believe it's the middle of August.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SoupBone wrote:This place and these threads are so eerily quiet. Hard to believe it's the middle of August.
Could be totally different 15 days from now, a big "could be", if the Euro's H20 velocity forecast is correct.
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