2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2121 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:03 am

Crazy ridiculous the new GFS runs into CA then into boc and then towards the Florida keys. :spam:

Again I still don’t get what the models are developing this from.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2122 Postby blp » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:05 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Could it be that the Euro is being left biased again? I guess we’ll have to wait and find out.


We all saw what happened with Michael when the Euro had several runs plowing into the Yucatan. This will swing back and forth. I think we have good consistency on cyclogensis in the short term range and the system being in the same general area as Michael by Day 10 which is scary for another potential Florida hit.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2123 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:11 am

blp wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Could it be that the Euro is being left biased again? I guess we’ll have to wait and find out.


We all saw what happened with Michael when the Euro had several runs plowing into the Yucatan. This will swing back and forth. I think we have good consistency on cyclogensis in the short term range and the system being in the same general area as Michael by Day 10 which is scary for another potential Florida hit.

Yes, with the FV-3 coming onboard it’ll be interesting to see if and when the GFS does so. Unfortunately all that TCHP in the NW Caribbean is coming to use this season. :cry:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2124 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:18 am

I’m thinking that the GFS develops the next Caribbean disturbance too quickly which sends it into Central America guaranteed while it takes a little longer for the Euro
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2125 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:34 am

i dont see were models picking area up from not thing behind HURRICANE MICHAEL
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2126 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:04 pm

Not much to see thus far from the 12z runs cmc and gfs both drive weak low into CA.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2127 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:09 pm

In his daily summary Meteorologist Joe Bastardi predicts another Caribbean storm in the 6-10 day range. He predicted Michael about a week in advance.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2128 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:47 pm

FV3 GFS into Central America:

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2129 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:20 pm

JB showed development south of Cuba headed northeast in the 6-10 day range.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2130 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:26 pm

CourierPR wrote:JB showed development south of Cuba headed northeast in the 6-10 day range.

Cuba is really long W to E. South of what part of Cuba?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2131 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:32 pm

Next or next year... :roll:
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2132 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:36 pm

Look familiar? No were to go but straight wet into CA.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2133 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:39 pm

toad strangler wrote:
CourierPR wrote:JB showed development south of Cuba headed northeast in the 6-10 day range.

Cuba is really long W to E. South of what part of Cuba?


He showed it heading NE into The Bahamas but I think you have to take that with a grain of salt this far out. It's on weatherbell.com, daily update.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2134 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:39 pm

SFLcane wrote:Look familiar? No were to go but straight wet into CA.

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/20 ... watl_8.png


I don’t recall a year with such persistent ridging this late. Looks like July with this pattern. Also no cold fronts for Florida to cool things down.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2135 Postby CourierPR » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:41 pm

[quote="SFLcane"]Look familiar? No were to go but straight wet into CA.

I'll go with the forecast of the meteorologist with a master's degree and years of forecasting weather patterns. Also, look at what's coming from the west in that slide.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2136 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:07 pm

I don't focus on placement this far out. The important item is that this keeps showing .... so we'll have to wait and see. What is also showing is a feature that can dig it out. Timing.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2137 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:46 pm

Watching 12z EPS members.. quite the clustering in the caribbean.

Image
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2138 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:54 pm

SFLcane wrote:Watching 12z EPS members.. quite the clustering in the caribbean.

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/08/lows.png


Looks like the majority of them move into Central America after that but still way out in time and likely to change.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2139 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:55 pm

Check that----> All EPS members head into CA.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2140 Postby otowntiger » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:02 pm

SFLcane wrote:Check that----> All EPS members head into CA.
Sounds good!
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