ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[viberama]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

That's bad advice. Look at the NHC cone if you think you are out of the woods.

[Hammy]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Don’t discount this yet, models don’t have all the data

Ive called it since this morning, the storm is gonna miss the coast by a huge bit and go right up to the carolinas. The models are proving me right.

Not sure how you can say this based on a few cycles of runs using incomplete upper air data.

[FLpanhandle91]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Can we just ban people like this?

[birddogsc]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Your pronouncement might be premature. Lot's of data says you're not in the clear.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

11pm: NHC disco says Dorian moving WNW or 300 degrees at 9 knots... Looks like closer to 270 to me?

5pm: NHC had Dorian passing 72W at 0600z... Appears that will happen a little sooner...

Just my observations...

I think, someone can correct me, that the NHC's movement is averaged over 12 hours. I did a real quick Google search and couldn't find anything though.

I haven't calculated the 11pm point, but using best track data at 8pm EDT my model system calculated the following:

6 Hour Average Movement:
Toward the NW or 308° at 8.1 knots (9.3 mph | 15.0 km/h)

12 Hour Average Movement:
Toward the NW or 307° at 9.1 knots (10.5 mph | 16.9 km/h)

24 Hour (1 Day) Average Movement:
Toward the NW or 312° at 9.3 knots (10.7 mph | 17.2 km/h)

48 Hour (2 Day) Average Movement:
Toward the NW or 321° at 9.8 knots (11.3 mph | 18.1 km/h)

120 Hour (5 Day) Average Movement:
Toward the NW or 312° at 10.3 knots (11.9 mph | 19.1 km/h)

[ronyan]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Can we just ban people like this?

No need, he's clearly going to leave this board now since he knows exactly where the storm's going. Why would he even check any news on it at this point lol

[Ritzcraker]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Don’t discount this yet, models don’t have all the data

Ive called it since this morning, the storm is gonna miss the coast by a huge bit and go right up to the carolinas. The models are proving me right.

Called it with what exactly? Do you have a professional meteorological background? There are lots of steering factors at play here. Not to mention this storm is extremely powerful and dangerous. Don’t be foolish and let your guard down when we are 3+ days out.

[skillz305]

I apologize if my comments are deemed insensitive. A lot of prep work is going on in Florida. It really sucks for whoever this storm will hit. Obviously we're still VERY VERY far away from an accurate forecast. Maybe we'll know when its like 10 miles off shore? I'm sorry. Couldn't help it. Good luck to all and be safe !

[sbcc]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Can we just ban people like this?

The "foe" feature comes in very handy sometimes.

[Ian2401]

this thing is barreling west lol
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... orbar=data

[BobHarlem]

Tomorrow the Rainman-esque wobble watching will begin in Ernest it seems. Lot's of "definitely" this (when it's not). If it slows/stalls I fully expect it to get heated.

[La Sirena]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Don’t discount this yet, models don’t have all the data

Ive called it since this morning, the storm is gonna miss the coast by a huge bit and go right up to the carolinas. The models are proving me right.

So....did you post this in The Predictions thread?

You didn’t?
Maybe you could slow your roll skippy....we’re still waaaay out from really having a clue. Save your prognostications.

[CrazyC83]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Uhhhh, the official landfall point is not far from you. That would be potentially deadly advice to not prepare based on that. You need to continue to treat this like it is coming your way. The error range at 4 days out is still over 150 miles either way.

[Ian2401]

Tomorrow the Rainman-esque wobble watching will begin in Ernest it seems. Lot's of "definitely" this (when it's not). If it slows/stalls I fully expect it to get heated.

oh my lord i didn't even think about wobble watching if/when its stalls. that's gonna be a nightmare

[JBCycloneStan]

Vero Beach, FL here. We got trolled, it sucks. Good prep tho. This is gonna miss Florida by alot and go right up to South Carolina. Time for another 3 states to prepare !~ $$$$

Another irresponsible post.

[ozonepete]

Did they sampled the atmosphere north of Dorian today? To me the ridge looks stronger than what the models were showing earlier today. Very important how strong the Bermuda ridge is, any little more strength could push Dorian further west before stalling.

https://i.imgur.com/PaYwXVl.gif

But don't forget to notice that shortwave trough dipping down in the midwest on your 500 mb chart. That is exactly, as Levi smartly noted tonight, what will help erode the western edge of the 500 mb ridge and pull dorian north. It's a complicated game.

[Aric Dunn]

So the 18z GFS did not cross 72 west until about 6z

so with this west motion currently it will be a good 8 hours ahead. and farther south

[Bocadude85]

Dorian seems to be moving due west south of 26N the last few hours, will be interesting to see at what longitude he crosses 26N

[Tailspin]

have not eyeballed the 00z ukmet but the 12z was not a safe run.
https://imgur.com/ewJAbO0

[Siker]

So the 18z GFS did not cross 72 west until about 6z

so with this west motion currently it will be a good 8 hours ahead. and farther south

But it’s already 3:30z?