Texas Winter 2019-2020
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
LOL.. You know, I peek in on occasions see the latest happenings with you all out there. I swear, every time I look at the models, they are showing shot of wintry precip west of DFW, I have seen shifts to the south of DFW on the EURO, and now they are showing a shot of wintry precip east of DFW for next week. LOL..
You all out in the DFW metroplex area, if you all do not get a good snow event within the next week with what I am looking at with the models. then Mother Nature must have a curse or something on you all LOL... I hope you all there get the snow to happen! I really do!!
Heck, at least you all are seeing some winter cold at times, something we can't buy here in Northeast Florida. The temp BTW reached 89.3 degrees for the max today at my home station, not only a record for today, but by a whisker, just missed seeing the earliest 90 degree temp I could have recorded here today for so early in the calendar year! Unbelievable!!
You all out in the DFW metroplex area, if you all do not get a good snow event within the next week with what I am looking at with the models. then Mother Nature must have a curse or something on you all LOL... I hope you all there get the snow to happen! I really do!!
Heck, at least you all are seeing some winter cold at times, something we can't buy here in Northeast Florida. The temp BTW reached 89.3 degrees for the max today at my home station, not only a record for today, but by a whisker, just missed seeing the earliest 90 degree temp I could have recorded here today for so early in the calendar year! Unbelievable!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro has next week's possible snow falling west of DFW and east of DFW but not over DFW. It must be correct...
http://wxman57.com/images/EC2.png
Sounds about right
I agree with the other post if we can't get snow next week then we really are cursed
GFS be trolling the snow just stops
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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
San Angelo NWS says it right.....
Different story for mid week however, with models in decent
agreement on a much colder air mass settling into the area as a
1040mb+ surface high drops out of Canada and into the Plains.
Precip chances look to increase by Tuesday night and continue
through Thursday as low level moisture overruns the boundary.
Models have their disagreements on details, with the GFS showing a
more shallow overrunning and warm advection pattern just above
the surface, leading to a sounding that looks more like rain or
maybe freezing rain. ECMWF has a deeper cold air mass, allowing
the precip to mainly be a sleet/snow concern. As we saw last week,
models struggle getting the thermal profile correct in the first
period, much less this far out. Not going to sweat the details at
this point, but will continue to mention some sort of wintry mix
possible in the climatologically favored areas mainly north of a
San Angelo to Abilene line. Obviously, temperatures look to be
much colder during this time period as well.
Different story for mid week however, with models in decent
agreement on a much colder air mass settling into the area as a
1040mb+ surface high drops out of Canada and into the Plains.
Precip chances look to increase by Tuesday night and continue
through Thursday as low level moisture overruns the boundary.
Models have their disagreements on details, with the GFS showing a
more shallow overrunning and warm advection pattern just above
the surface, leading to a sounding that looks more like rain or
maybe freezing rain. ECMWF has a deeper cold air mass, allowing
the precip to mainly be a sleet/snow concern. As we saw last week,
models struggle getting the thermal profile correct in the first
period, much less this far out. Not going to sweat the details at
this point, but will continue to mention some sort of wintry mix
possible in the climatologically favored areas mainly north of a
San Angelo to Abilene line. Obviously, temperatures look to be
much colder during this time period as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday
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#neversummer
- TXdaddy217
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
wxman57 wrote:12Z Euro has next week's possible snow falling west of DFW and east of DFW but not over DFW. It must be correct...
http://wxman57.com/images/EC2.png
99 inches in Abilene. LOL.
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I am not a meteorologist. Anything posted by me should not be taken as an official forecast. Get your information from respected sources such as NWS and NOAA. I get my weather information the same way Hank Hill does ..... I look out the window and say ... "YUP".
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday
https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg
What are the chances Delkus creeps on this board and did that to troll us........ why else would he make that map for next week and show it tonight. Unless it's just a model output.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
HockeyTx82 wrote:Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday
https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg
What are the chances Delkus creeps on this board and did that to troll us........ why else would he make that map for next week and show it tonight. Unless it's just a model output.
I think it's a model tbh(if you've noticed the op runs have went around Dallas today) but that would be funny
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#neversummer
- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
HockeyTx82 wrote:Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday
https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg
What are the chances Delkus creeps on this board and did that to troll us........ why else would he make that map for next week and show it tonight. Unless it's just a model output.
Troll us? He might have done it just to troll Brent!
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday
https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg
Looks like he is showing the 12z Euro which had an odd precip type depiction, esp. when you look at soundings.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
OZ gfs really backs off frozen precip and moves snow further west
Being the gfs I consider this a positive
Being the gfs I consider this a positive
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"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
Texas Snowman wrote:HockeyTx82 wrote:Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday
https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg
What are the chances Delkus creeps on this board and did that to troll us........ why else would he make that map for next week and show it tonight. Unless it's just a model output.
Troll us? He might have done it just to troll Brent!
Lol well I mean I've seen snow twice in the last 5 weeks but always somewhere else. I really wanna bring this one home tbh i feel like the winter is complete if it does
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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
Euro looks to have lost the snow on Wednesday
It's much further away from DFW and all west of 35
12z
It's much further away from DFW and all west of 35
12z
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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
Not a good overnight trend when you see the Euro ENS and GFS ENS flip roles, GEFS is a terrible teammate to have on your team!
GEFS
EPS
GEFS
EPS
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
Brent wrote:Delkus just had a mix south of Dallas and rain for the city and north snow to the west at 10pm Wednesday
https://i.ibb.co/0QsTHsc/IMG-20200213-181936944.jpg
This is flat out irresponsible.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
Which website has the postage stamp thumbnails of the ECMWF ensemble? I use College of Dupage to look at the GEFS ensemble but they dont have the ECMWF on there.
orangeblood wrote:Not a good overnight trend when you see the Euro ENS and GFS ENS flip roles, GEFS is a terrible teammate to have on your team!
GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_snow/1581660000/1581660000-fsAEA5oq3cY.png
EPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1581638400/1581638400-l4nl0lZNAqM.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
Of interest in the 12Z GFS, in the 10-14 day time frame, there's a lot of rain in Texas
That's > 5 days out, so don't count on it.
That's > 5 days out, so don't count on it.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
mcallum177 wrote:Which website has the postage stamp thumbnails of the ECMWF ensemble? I use College of Dupage to look at the GEFS ensemble but they dont have the ECMWF on there.orangeblood wrote:Not a good overnight trend when you see the Euro ENS and GFS ENS flip roles, GEFS is a terrible teammate to have on your team!
GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_snow/1581660000/1581660000-fsAEA5oq3cY.png
EPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1581638400/1581638400-l4nl0lZNAqM.png
you have to pay $$$ for the EPS generally wxbell or wxmodels
anyway looking at the 12z Euro Wednesday is rain and south of DFW, no snow out west
Thursday some snow in far West Texas generally around San Angelo and west but its dry in DFW and rain is to the south
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- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
Stop watching the models, they sit on a throne of lies, and smell like beer and cheese.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
GFS is playing it safe and not wanting to get snow too close to DFW lol
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020
bubba hotep wrote:GFS is playing it safe and not wanting to get snow too close to DFW lol
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020021418/gfs_asnow_scus_33.png
The EPS has basically entirely lost it not good
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