Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)

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Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)

#1 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 23, 2020 10:21 am

The last 4 or 5 runs of the euro have been showing a trough possibly quickly developing in the NW carrib and eastern gulf over the next 3 to 5 days.

Currently in the NW Carrib there is a surface trough there and the MLC from the bay of Campeche has moved into the area.

there is some broad low level curvature and good upper divergence to get some deep convection going.

It will of course be a sheared system but when the Euro keeps showing something within 3 to 5 days you listen.

and now that there is something in the NW carrib a thread should be started.

latest Euro surface loop.

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Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun May 24, 2020 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#2 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat May 23, 2020 10:41 am

Oh yeah, baybee! Rainy season has started in earnest in South/Southwest Florida and not a moment too soon for wildfire suppression.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#3 Postby gfsperpendicular » Sat May 23, 2020 11:07 am

Looks interesting.
Image

I don't expect it will do anything because of the oppressive shear it's under but it's definitely cool to look at.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#4 Postby northjaxpro » Sat May 23, 2020 11:08 am

Now we are in desperate need of rainfall here in Northeast Florida. I have not had any rain of significance at my locale for the month of May to this point.
We are getting brush fires across Duval and Saint Johns Counties and we are bone dry. We need a tropical systrm to dump some beneficial rain peninsula-wide.


We will see if anything comes of this disturbance moving out of the NW Caribbean in the short term..
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat May 23, 2020 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#5 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 23, 2020 11:10 am

gfsperpendicular wrote:Looks interesting.
https://i.imgur.com/dv6QlCW.gif

I don't expect it will do anything because of the oppressive shear it's under but it's definitely cool to look at.


Shear is what will bring possible life to this.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#6 Postby Ivanhater » Sat May 23, 2020 11:16 am

NW Florida is in a severe drought but rain chances are looking better next week. Even if not named, this early season activity is interesting.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#7 Postby gfsperpendicular » Sat May 23, 2020 11:17 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:Looks interesting.
https://i.imgur.com/dv6QlCW.gif

I don't expect it will do anything because of the oppressive shear it's under but it's definitely cool to look at.


Shear is what will bring possible life to this.


Care to explain? I'm not completely sure how this happens :D
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#8 Postby SFLcane » Sat May 23, 2020 11:28 am

Well yea.... Insane rainfall totals on the Euro :eek:

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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat May 23, 2020 11:48 am

SFLcane wrote:Well yea.... Insane rainfall totals on the Euro :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/NI5XxcK.png

Is this for the next few days? Cause that is ALOT of rain especially for West Palm Beach and places just to the north. :double:
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#10 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 23, 2020 11:57 am

gfsperpendicular wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:Looks interesting.
https://i.imgur.com/dv6QlCW.gif

I don't expect it will do anything because of the oppressive shear it's under but it's definitely cool to look at.


Shear is what will bring possible life to this.


Care to explain? I'm not completely sure how this happens :D


Divergent shear enhances convection. And as long as the low level circ is moving in the direction of the shear relative shear is lower.. happens often in this area this time of year.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#11 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 23, 2020 12:16 pm

Yeah definitely needs to be watched. Tropical wave is enetering the picture with deep tropical moisture and good low level vorticity.

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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#12 Postby Siker » Sat May 23, 2020 12:36 pm

28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 28.5N 80.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.05.2020 108 28.8N 79.8W 1008 33
1200UTC 28.05.2020 120 32.1N 80.7W 1007 35
0000UTC 29.05.2020 132 34.2N 81.6W 1007 27
1200UTC 29.05.2020 144 35.7N 81.8W 1009
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 23, 2020 1:31 pm

12z Euro a little more aggressive with the surface circ. up to a TS this run. briefly.

Image


Image
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#14 Postby Jr0d » Sat May 23, 2020 1:36 pm

Hopefully it spins up and gets out of the picture quickly so it will not interfere with the SpaceX Demo-2 launch on Wednesday.

Right now its not looking good for a go.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#15 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 23, 2020 1:45 pm

Jr0d wrote:Hopefully it spins up and gets out of the picture quickly so it will not interfere with the SpaceX Demo-2 launch on Wednesday.

Right now its not looking good for a go.


We shall see. it is definitely going to spin up fast. as for getting out in time. tough call.

by 36hurs on the euro it closes off a surface circ just north of the Yucatan channel.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#16 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 23, 2020 1:51 pm

1003 mb on the Euro monday morning. with 55mph winds just offshore Fort Meyers.

sheared of course but nonetheless we could possibly see Bertha before June 1st lol

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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#17 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 23, 2020 1:57 pm

12z UKMET jumping onboard. Same thinking as the Euro but the circ stays with the sheared convection

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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#18 Postby psyclone » Sat May 23, 2020 2:00 pm

Perhaps another pre season appetizer is on the docket. certainly a climo favored area. WPC dumps a boatload of QPF on southwest Florida centered on the Ft Myers area. System or not the rainy season is off to an early start over the florida peninsula.
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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#19 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat May 23, 2020 2:00 pm

UKMET 120 hours Gusts ..

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Re: Disturbance in the NW Caribbean Sea

#20 Postby Nuno » Sat May 23, 2020 2:42 pm

psyclone wrote:Perhaps another pre season appetizer is on the docket. certainly a climo favored area. WPC dumps a boatload of QPF on southwest Florida centered on the Ft Myers area. System or not the rainy season is off to an early start over the florida peninsula.


Honestly relieved tbh, it feels like Floridian rainy season has gotten started later than it should in recent years. I don't know if the stats back it up, this is just anecdotally.
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