Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles (along 64W)
This should be at least mentioned in the 2pm TWO. Might be a problem in the Gulf.
https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1302273354578178048
https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1302273354578178048
1 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Re: Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles (along 64W)
This little guy might be trying to snatch the name Paulette before 92L has the chance to form.
3 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2422
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles (along 64W)
Introduced to the TWO at 2PM:
2. A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some slight
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for formation.
This wave is expected to move westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
2. A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some slight
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for formation.
This wave is expected to move westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
1 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles (along 64W)
Another tiny system in the Caribbean, surprised the Caribbean hasn’t produced a monster yet. Thinking October could be the month it does.
5 likes
- gfsperpendicular
- Category 1
- Posts: 383
- Age: 20
- Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:04 pm
- Location: Northern Virginia
Re: Tropical Wave Near the Lesser Antilles (along 64W)
gatorcane wrote:Another tiny system in the Caribbean, surprised the Caribbean hasn’t produced a monster yet. Thinking October could be the month it does.
We also do have 5/6 of September left, so we definitely need to keep an eye out
5 likes
I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!
#1 CMC stan
#1 CMC stan
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
Decent 850 mb vorticity signature this afternoon.
1 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
Mid- Upper Level Low over Cuba causing 25-30 KT SW shear ahead of the TW in the Central and Northwestern Caribbean.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 331
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2010 5:21 pm
- Location: New Orleans
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
Yep, gonna be interesting to see if that shear zone continues moving west and or weakens?
1 likes
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
northjaxpro wrote:Mid- Upper Level Low over Cuba causing 25-30 KT SW shear ahead of the TW in the Central and Northwestern Caribbean.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
A lot less shear out there now compared to a month ago though. MDR has virtually no shear right
0 likes
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
This afternoon’s vis sat loop shows all the convection pretty much gone on the little wave, with the naked circulation moving off to the west... whether or not it makes a comeback is TBD.. but unlikely in the face of all the shear that lies ahead...
1 likes
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
This may be an ULL that works its way down to the surface.
I like all the popup convection.
Keeping an eye on this overnight.
Especially to the west of the ULL's CoC.
I like all the popup convection.
Keeping an eye on this overnight.
Especially to the west of the ULL's CoC.
2 likes
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
High rain-rate, high-helicity towers poppin off around 15N 76W.
Catalyst from a strong shear gradient.
Close to the monsoon trough.
Heavy TPW and highly saturated troposphere.
Looks somewhat promising.
Catalyst from a strong shear gradient.
Close to the monsoon trough.
Heavy TPW and highly saturated troposphere.
Looks somewhat promising.
2 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139567
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea is
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for formation.
This wave is expected to move westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for formation.
This wave is expected to move westward across the central and
western Caribbean Sea during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139567
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or
two while it moves westward across the central and western
Caribbean Sea. After that time, unfavorable upper-level winds
should limit its formation chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or
two while it moves westward across the central and western
Caribbean Sea. After that time, unfavorable upper-level winds
should limit its formation chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
Looks like it’s starting to take a beating from all sides now. Shear to the west, dry air south, DR north.
0 likes
FAA ATP
Belize UAS Operator
Belize UAS Operator
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139567
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or
two while it moves westward across the central and western
Caribbean Sea. After that time, unfavorable upper-level winds
should limit its formation chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or
two while it moves westward across the central and western
Caribbean Sea. After that time, unfavorable upper-level winds
should limit its formation chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3876
- Age: 60
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: West Melbourne, Florida
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
533 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is near 76W from the S coast of Cuba and near
Jamaica to Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-20N between 76W-79W,
and within 90 nm NW of the coast of Colombia with additional
activity over land N of 08N.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
533 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2020
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is near 76W from the S coast of Cuba and near
Jamaica to Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 16N-20N between 76W-79W,
and within 90 nm NW of the coast of Colombia with additional
activity over land N of 08N.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
Shear is decreasing very quickly as the TUTT is weakening.
time to start watching this again as the low level vorticity is still very much alive and convection is starting to fill in now that it has slowed down quite a bit.
time to start watching this again as the low level vorticity is still very much alive and convection is starting to fill in now that it has slowed down quite a bit.
4 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: Tropical Wave In the Central Caribbean
Aric Dunn wrote:Shear is decreasing very quickly as the TUTT is weakening.
time to start watching this again as the low level vorticity is still very much alive and convection is starting to fill in now that it has slowed down quite a bit.
Yep firing off some T-Storms near the axis, can’t turn your back on a strong wave axis in the northwest Caribbean this time of the year.
2 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Chris90, Google [Bot], JayTX, StPeteMike, Stratton23 and 68 guests