2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro a bit stronger with the 0/40 system. Also stronger with the CMC medium long range system.

[JW-_-]

https://i.postimg.cc/pTZz3DhZ/modaus-20210607-0000-animation.gif

Waiting to see what the next bom run does. In my neck of the woods, we regard it better than
the USA global model.

A few comparisons atm of the global models.

[Kingarabian]

For the entire month of June, the 46 day EPS shows very weak trade wind averages over Nino 3, Nino 1+2 as well as portions of Nino 3.4 (Also westerly anomalies in the Atlantic MDR!):


This means that there's a good chance that the EPAC SST's will be warmer for the heart of the season, as well a bit more rising motion since extended period of warm SST's eventually influences localized rising motion. This favors EPAC activity through August and maybe September At the same, trade winds will be stronger than average near the dateline and this will promote upwelling Kelvin wave(s) that in theory would reach the EPAC by August. So the status of EPAC activity in September, October, and November is up in the air. There seems to be enough OHC to raise the Nino region SST's to +0.3C/+0.4C levels. If this happens then upwelling KW activity theoretically could be offset before cool anomalies take over in October and November.

TLDR; Model forecasts currently pointing to enhanced (?) EPAC activity early September before a resurgent weak La Nina slowly winds the season down earlier than normal.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS has a hurricane in 4 days:

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Additional development of this system is possible over the next
several days, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend
or early next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest well
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 92E is up

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS showing 2 CAG systems.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS showing the first CAG system.

[Yellow Evan]

12z CMC still liking CAG mischief.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF drops any CAG stuff.

[Kingarabian]

Gotta watch the ensembles with the Euro operational flip flopping

[JW-_-]

https://i.postimg.cc/pTZz3DhZ/modaus-20210607-0000-animation.gif

Waiting to see what the next bom run does. In my neck of the woods, we regard it better than
the USA global model.

https://i.postimg.cc/d16sgZgR/modaus-20210614-0000-animation.gif



https://i.postimg.cc/y83FB713/xx-model-en-145-0-modaus-2021060400-240-1450-63.png


https://i.postimg.cc/7ZzTdX9g/xx-model-en-145-0-modcan-2021060400-240-1450-63.png

https://i.postimg.cc/PxXpLHj4/xx-model-en-145-0-modez-2021060400-240-1450-63.png


https://i.postimg.cc/s2y18zvr/xx-model-en-145-0-modusa-2021060400-240-1450-63.png


A few comparisons atm of the global models.

[Yellow Evan]

12z KMA having a Guatemala landfall but also re-development in the Atlantic.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS dropped anything from the CAG. 0z GFS running rn.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS brings it back but sooner and into El Salvador.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS now has 2 CAG systems.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF and CMC also fairly keen on CAG action.

[cycloneye]

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week.
Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
drifts slowly northward through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS and ECMWF, with the latter back to showing 2 CAG systems.

[Kingarabian]

There is a chance we remain in this conducive state for TCG over the EPAC throughout June regardless of what happens with the CAG. There's another fast moving CCKW currently over the Maritime Continent that will be moving over the Pacific by the third week of June:


The EPAC so far has been responding pretty well to these atmospheric tropical waves.