Astromanía wrote:Maybe this is the type of year where we should watch more the Gulf and the Caribbean rather than the MDR
That's October. It's still the season to look EAST even if just about done for landfall potential in the western basin.
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Astromanía wrote:Maybe this is the type of year where we should watch more the Gulf and the Caribbean rather than the MDR
Iceresistance wrote:What is with the 12z GFS?
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_fh108-384.gif
SouthFLTropics wrote:18z GFS looks to spin up some trouble in the GOM long range into early October.
https://i.imgur.com/T5nLLFj.gif
Stormybajan wrote:Interestingly, the 12z euro run today shows 95L 2.0 while GFS shows development of another MDR system in about 300 hours, cmc and icon shows squat in the MDR. Not believing anything until I see it off the coast of Africa
Category5Kaiju wrote:Stormybajan wrote:Interestingly, the 12z euro run today shows 95L 2.0 while GFS shows development of another MDR system in about 300 hours, cmc and icon shows squat in the MDR. Not believing anything until I see it off the coast of Africa
Imagine if we somehow got a bona fide, strong CV storm that moves west into the islands...in the last several days of this month. Just imagine how amazed many of us would be if that were to actually happen, as there's a general consensus that getting such kinds of storms that late is super rare
kevin wrote:12z Euro has a possibly dangerous storm forming from the AOI behind 95L, but for now it's still at +144/+168 before forming so plenty of time for things to change. However, the Euro is usually quite conservative with TC genesis so if this system remains in the Euro runs for a few more cycles I'd say we should definitely pay attention to it.
https://imgur.com/mufa4PZ
CyclonicFury wrote:kevin wrote:12z Euro has a possibly dangerous storm forming from the AOI behind 95L, but for now it's still at +144/+168 before forming so plenty of time for things to change. However, the Euro is usually quite conservative with TC genesis so if this system remains in the Euro runs for a few more cycles I'd say we should definitely pay attention to it.
https://imgur.com/mufa4PZ
The Euro has not been too conservative with MDR genesis this year, if anything it has been too aggressive.
aspen wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:Stormybajan wrote:Interestingly, the 12z euro run today shows 95L 2.0 while GFS shows development of another MDR system in about 300 hours, cmc and icon shows squat in the MDR. Not believing anything until I see it off the coast of Africa
Imagine if we somehow got a bona fide, strong CV storm that moves west into the islands...in the last several days of this month. Just imagine how amazed many of us would be if that were to actually happen, as there's a general consensus that getting such kinds of storms that late is super rare
Something like Matthew isn’t impossible: a storm forms in the very far western MDR, moves into the Caribbean, and then goes bonkers. But a bona-fide long tracker? That’s impossible at this point, thanks to the worsening MJO phase and how much trouble 95L has had.
kevin wrote:12z Euro has a possibly dangerous storm forming from the AOI behind 95L, but for now it's still at +144/+168 before forming so plenty of time for things to change. However, the Euro is usually quite conservative with TC genesis so if this system remains in the Euro runs for a few more cycles I'd say we should definitely pay attention to it.
https://imgur.com/mufa4PZ
kevin wrote:GFS seems to have the same MDR storm around +150 as the 12z Euro. As other people rightfully said earlier in this thread it's still way too soon to say something about this AOI with any real value, but at the very least it's a noteworthy development in the models. I guess I'll wait until it at least enters the +90 region before I really pay a lot of attention to it.
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