Mediterranean TCRs

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DanieleItalyRm
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#21 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Tue Mar 29, 2022 3:45 am

Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:I finished Masinissa's report: http://zivipotty.hu/2020_masinissa.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html )

Although it looked quite tropical before the landfall, according to the reanalysis it remained strongly connected with the upper level trough (and widespread, strong potential vorticity anomaly) over it, in addition satellite images and wind measurements also suggested some connection with the remaining frontal areas around the small core too. So based on these I left it as subtropical in its entire lifetime.


I also have the doubt that Mediterranean storm Masinissa has remained largely subtropical.
However in my final track-map I left the doubt that it could also have been Tropical at landfall.
Congratulations as always!
Last edited by DanieleItalyRm on Tue Mar 29, 2022 3:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#22 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Tue Mar 29, 2022 3:49 am

Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:I finished Masinissa's report: http://zivipotty.hu/2020_masinissa.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html )

Althuogh it looked quite tropical before the landfall, according to the realanysis it remained strongly connencted with the upper level trough (and widespread, storng potential vorticity anomaly) over it, in addition satellite images and wind measurements also suggested some connection with the remaining frontal areas around the small core too. So based on these I left it as subtropical in its entire lifetime.


Now are we waiting for Mediterranean storm Apollo or maybe a Medicane from the past? :wink:
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#23 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:20 pm

DanieleItalyRm wrote:Now are we waiting for Mediterranean storm Apollo or maybe a Medicane from the past? :wink:


Thanks for the congratulation!
Apollo will be the next, maybe I will finish it within a few weeks.
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#24 Postby AJC3 » Fri Apr 01, 2022 4:32 pm

DanieleItalyRm wrote:
Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:I finished Masinissa's report: http://zivipotty.hu/2020_masinissa.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html )

Although it looked quite tropical before the landfall, according to the reanalysis it remained strongly connected with the upper level trough (and widespread, strong potential vorticity anomaly) over it, in addition satellite images and wind measurements also suggested some connection with the remaining frontal areas around the small core too. So based on these I left it as subtropical in its entire lifetime.


I also have the doubt that Mediterranean storm Masinissa has remained largely subtropical.
However in my final track-map I left the doubt that it could also have been Tropical at landfall.
Congratulations as always!


I concur. I have left the designation in the thread title as "Tropical Storm" based upon my assessment that it had enough tropical characteristics that it would have been designated as such by an official agency.
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#25 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Wed Sep 14, 2022 4:20 pm

A 'bit' later than I want, but finally finished Apollo's report: http://zivipotty.hu/2021_apollo.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html ).
The next will be Blas, hopefully later this year. :D
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#26 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:08 pm

Not a report yet (however, Blas is basicly done and Ciprian is almost too), but I made a simple overview page of the medicanes with their tracks and descriptions from each (based on my reports). I hope you find it good and useful. :wink:

http://zivipotty.hu/medicanes_en.html
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#27 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Thu Feb 09, 2023 2:55 pm

Reports of Blas (2021) and Ciprian (2022) are done. :)
http://zivipotty.hu/2021_blas.pdf
http://zivipotty.hu/2022_ciprian.pdf
(Or from here if the direct links dont't work: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html)
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#28 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Wed Aug 02, 2023 6:20 am

A new report is done from an 'oldie', Tropical Storm Xandra of 2014.
http://zivipotty.hu/2014_xandra.pdf
http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#29 Postby AJC3 » Thu Aug 03, 2023 2:50 pm

Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:I finished Masinissa's report: http://zivipotty.hu/2020_masinissa.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html )

Although it looked quite tropical before the landfall, according to the reanalysis it remained strongly connected with the upper level trough (and widespread, strong potential vorticity anomaly) over it, in addition satellite images and wind measurements also suggested some connection with the remaining frontal areas around the small core too. So based on these I left it as subtropical in its entire lifetime.


Another excellent report! Thanks again for your continued research, as I'm sure others who follow these cyclones with as much passion as I do appreciate it.

Also, I added a link to this thread near the top of the page linked below. The link is right above the index of Med cyclones.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 4&t=121657
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#30 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Fri Aug 04, 2023 8:15 am

AJC3 wrote:Another excellent report! Thanks again for your continued research, as I'm sure others who follow these cyclones with as much passion as I do appreciate it.

Also, I added a link to this thread near the top of the page linked below. The link is right above the index of Med cyclones.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 4&t=121657


Thank you! :)
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#31 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Oct 08, 2023 11:53 am

Report of Daniel is done: http://zivipotty.hu/2023_daniel.pdf (or from here is it doesn't work: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html)
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#32 Postby AJC3 » Mon Oct 09, 2023 7:10 am

Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:Report of Daniel is done: http://zivipotty.hu/2023_daniel.pdf (or from here is it doesn't work: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html)


Another excellent write-up!
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#33 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Tue Oct 10, 2023 1:03 am

AJC3 wrote:Another excellent write-up!


Thanks! :)
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#34 Postby kevin » Tue Oct 15, 2024 7:39 am

There are some great papers regarding the statistics and cataloging of Mediterranean TCs.

A first paper by Leone Cavicchia, Hans von Storch and Silvio Guald uses the following criteria for Mediteraannean TCs.
*Only sea level pressure minima with pressure gradient greater than ∆P =20 Pa over 3 grid points are registered. So basically, on average a TC needs to be below 1013 - 20 = 993 mb to be registered.
*This pressure minima must have at least 6 hourly output steps -> TC for more than 6 hours. No more than half of the TC points can be above land.
*The TC must have traveled at least 200 km during its existence.
*A cyclone is classified as medicane if it shows vertical symmetry and a warm core for more than 10% of the track or more than 6 hours, calculated using phase space criteria.
*A cyclone is classified as a medicane if the wind speed averaged in a circle of radius 50 km around the pressure minimum is higher than 18 m/s (35 kt, 40 mph) for more than 10% of the track or more than 6 hours.
*A cyclone is classified as a medicane if the wind speed (averaged in a circle of radius 50 km around the pressure minimum) at 850 hPa is higher than the wind speed at 300 hPa.
*A cyclone is classified as a medicane if the maximum wind speed in a circle of radius 50 km around the pressure minimum is higher than 29 m/s (55 kt, 65 mph) for a time longer than 4 hours.

These requirements thus only look at storms with a pressure below ~993 mb and peak sustained winds of 55+ kt, besides some other requirements. These are way stricter requirements than we have for a TC in the Atlantic. Still, the paper found 99 medicanes over the period 1948 - 2011. If the requirement for the maximum speed drops from 29 m/s (55 kt, 65 mph) to 25 m/s (50 kt, 55 mph) the number of found TCs more than doubles for their smaller test dataset of 1995 - 1999.

Another paper by Nastos P.T., Karavana-Papadimou K. and Matsangouras I.T. (https://cest2015.gnest.org/papers/cest2015_00407_oral_paper.pdf) found 65 medicanes over the period of 1947 - 2014. However, their requirement was continuous cloud cover, symmetric shape around a visible cleared cyclone eye. This sounds more similar to a hurricane requirement instead of a TC requirement.

In conclusion, the papers probably show that there have probably been roughly 65 hurricane-strength cyclones in the Mediterranean in 1947 - 2014 and that there have been 99 strong tropical storms with wind speeds of 55 kt or higher in 1948 - 2011. This is roughly 1 hurricane per year. However, it clearly shows that many more tropical storms and tropical depressions have formed. If you use the 21/9 ratio of TCs for the 50 kt and the 55 kt requirement then there could be upwards of 230 TCs in the dataset with wind speeds of at least 50 kt -> 3 - 4 per year on average. Lowering the requirement to 35 kt or 30 kt could cause this number to increase by a lot. I know the last two sentences use a lot of assumptions, but the bottom line is that there are clearly quite a lot of classifiable systems, most likely 5+ per year on average. I don't have access to the raw data unfortunately, but I'd love to see an analysis using a 30+ kt requirement to more accurately see how the Mediterranean compares to f.e. the Atlantic. I think a lot of people would be shocked how many TCs form in that basin while we are mostly just unaware of it.
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#35 Postby underthwx » Tue Oct 15, 2024 7:47 am

Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:Report of Daniel is done: http://zivipotty.hu/2023_daniel.pdf (or from here is it doesn't work: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html)

That is too cool...
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#36 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:14 am

kevin wrote:There are some great papers regarding the statistics and cataloging of Mediterranean TCs.

A first paper by Leone Cavicchia, Hans von Storch and Silvio Guald uses the following criteria for Mediteraannean TCs.

. .
Another paper by Nastos P.T., Karavana-Papadimou K. and Matsangouras I.T. (https://cest2015.gnest.org/papers/cest2015_00407_oral_paper.pdf) found 65 medicanes over the period of 1947 - 2014. .

Thanks for you report.
I disagree with some of these criteria.
They should be applied to the Atlantic and find out if they actually intercept TC. Furthermore, in these articles it appears once again that the Balearic Sea is the most affected by the Mediterranean TCs, while the satellite data clearly shows that the Ionian Sea is by far the first point of TC development with 3 certain hurricanes and various strong TS. In the Balearic Sea observed only one TC with Hurricane structure (Sept.1983) and one in the Tyrrhenian Sea (Oct.1996) and various TS. I'm convinced of a strong TS every year but not a hurricane a year. Furthermore, the map ignores the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya;
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Re: Mediterranean TCRs

#37 Postby AJC3 » Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:37 am

DanieleItalyRm wrote:
kevin wrote:There are some great papers regarding the statistics and cataloging of Mediterranean TCs.

A first paper by Leone Cavicchia, Hans von Storch and Silvio Guald uses the following criteria for Mediteraannean TCs.

. .
Another paper by Nastos P.T., Karavana-Papadimou K. and Matsangouras I.T. (https://cest2015.gnest.org/papers/cest2015_00407_oral_paper.pdf) found 65 medicanes over the period of 1947 - 2014. .

Thanks for you report.
I disagree with some of these criteria.
They should be applied to the Atlantic and find out if they actually intercept TC. Furthermore, in these articles it appears once again that the Balearic Sea is the most affected by the Mediterranean TCs, while the satellite data clearly shows that the Ionian Sea is by far the first point of TC development with 3 certain hurricanes and various strong TS. In the Balearic Sea observed only one TC with Hurricane structure (Sept.1983) and one in the Tyrrhenian Sea (Oct.1996) and various TS. I'm convinced of a strong TS every year but not a hurricane a year. Furthermore, the map ignores the Eastern Mediterranean and Libya;


Also, the "200km movement" criterion in the first paper seems completely arbitrary and unnecessary. Why would the author want to eliminate a cyclone that meets all the other criteria just because it didn't move as far of a distance? Lack of motion in and of itself would tend to limit further development becaue of upwelling. I have to wonder if any cyclones were removed for this reason. Again, an unnecessary criterion IMO.
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