cheezyWXguy wrote:Strikes me as kind of odd that the numbers are still weighted toward quantity over quality. June and July are the most common periods for slop, and with those out of the way, ASO seem more likely to contain quality storms by comparison. With the first half of august looking just as empty as the last two months, I’m inclined to lean toward the lower end of the NS count if the H/MH ranges are to be maintained.
I am thinking just the opposite. Forecast is for 15/8/4, which is weighted more heavily toward hurricanes, as historical average is twice the number of named storms vs. hurricanes.