WiscoWx02 wrote:Models show nothing for anticyclonic development and the ensembles are pretty dead, but this means NOTHING. Models showed nothing until Julia was two-three days from forming as a more recent example. Also it is kind of hard to ignore the fact that 10 out of the 13 La Nina years since 1995 have had impactful storms. You also have to factor that 2010 has Hurricane Thomas which hit the Leeward Islands in November. So that's 11 out of 13 La Nina seasons where something has happened in October or November right there....that's 84.61% of the time! Last year, 2021, where no big storms formed in the Caribbean Sea was honestly an outlier by many means. But, as Teban54 and LarryWx said, Wanda or the precursor of Wanda was quite impactful too. So if you wanted to add Wanda to that list then 12 out of 13 have had some land impacts in October and November for storms that were or would go to be tropical cyclones. 92.31% of the time! So IMO, we probably aren't done. We are just in an intra-seasonal lull. Models showing nothing is nowcasting IMO as well. For me personally, I think one more system in the Caribbean Sea is in order as well as a system in the subtropical Atlantic. Could be a bullish forecast but from a statistics standpoint...kinda hard to believe the season is over.
For Caribbean (what that post was about) genesis in 2010, I could have included Richard. Tomas technically wasn't Caribbean. Also, I listed 2009 by mistake being that I meant to list only Niña. So, for Caribbean late OCT/Nov genesis w/sig. land impact in Niña, I'd still call it 10/13 since Wanda of 2021 wasn't Caribbean. So, 2021, 2000, and 1995 were in the no category for Caribbean. But for all areas, 11/13.