Big ones for 2023
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- Category5Kaiju
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Big ones for 2023
It's almost time to ring in the new year, and as the tradition goes, blindly predicting what the "big ones" are going to be for the upcoming season!
With that being said, which names do you think will be given to memorable and potentially retireable storm(s) for the upcoming 2023 hurricane season? I will begin with my personal thoughts. I think that 2023 will find a way to generate one or two powerful major strength storms, regardless of ENSO state, in the Atlantic Ocean. I think the EPAC will be above average at least, but the EPAC will find a way to have all of its major hurricanes not impact land and harmlessly spin out to sea, much like the past 7 years.
Regarding the Atlantic, I have a suspicion that 2023 will be the year that Emily wreaks tremendous havoc. Emily has had a pretty healthy streak of major hurricane attainment even during quiet years such as 1987 and 1993, with 2005 being the most memorable incarnation of that name. With that being said, it almost seems as if destiny is waiting for Emily to finally meet her end. Considering we have not had a retired E name since 2015 and the decent chances of +ENSO status that would make this Atlantic season not go bonkers in named storms, I feel like Emily will be a storm that occurs in mid to late August. Oh, and yes, I do not believe that 2023's August will be as unfavorable as 2022's August (I'm betting we will see named storms in August ).
The second name I have a suspicion will be bad is Harold. Perhaps it's because it is following the heels of the very destructive Harvey or because I personally had a bizarre dream about Harold being a Miami-slamming Cat 5 a few nights after Ian (yes, I swear that this actually happened). However, I am laying odds that 2023 is going to give us a temporary respite from the I curse and instead have the storm right before Idalia turn out to be an extremely bad storm (Idalia on the other hand will turn out to be a nothing-burger, weak, short-lived TS in the middle of the open ocean ). Timewise, I am thinking sometime in mid-September. The decent chances of a +ENSO state additionally make me believe that there won't really be an October or November monster to fret about.
So my preliminary guesses are: Emily (late August) and Harold (mid September)
Replacement names for 2029 are: Elizabeth and Herbert
With that being said, which names do you think will be given to memorable and potentially retireable storm(s) for the upcoming 2023 hurricane season? I will begin with my personal thoughts. I think that 2023 will find a way to generate one or two powerful major strength storms, regardless of ENSO state, in the Atlantic Ocean. I think the EPAC will be above average at least, but the EPAC will find a way to have all of its major hurricanes not impact land and harmlessly spin out to sea, much like the past 7 years.
Regarding the Atlantic, I have a suspicion that 2023 will be the year that Emily wreaks tremendous havoc. Emily has had a pretty healthy streak of major hurricane attainment even during quiet years such as 1987 and 1993, with 2005 being the most memorable incarnation of that name. With that being said, it almost seems as if destiny is waiting for Emily to finally meet her end. Considering we have not had a retired E name since 2015 and the decent chances of +ENSO status that would make this Atlantic season not go bonkers in named storms, I feel like Emily will be a storm that occurs in mid to late August. Oh, and yes, I do not believe that 2023's August will be as unfavorable as 2022's August (I'm betting we will see named storms in August ).
The second name I have a suspicion will be bad is Harold. Perhaps it's because it is following the heels of the very destructive Harvey or because I personally had a bizarre dream about Harold being a Miami-slamming Cat 5 a few nights after Ian (yes, I swear that this actually happened). However, I am laying odds that 2023 is going to give us a temporary respite from the I curse and instead have the storm right before Idalia turn out to be an extremely bad storm (Idalia on the other hand will turn out to be a nothing-burger, weak, short-lived TS in the middle of the open ocean ). Timewise, I am thinking sometime in mid-September. The decent chances of a +ENSO state additionally make me believe that there won't really be an October or November monster to fret about.
So my preliminary guesses are: Emily (late August) and Harold (mid September)
Replacement names for 2029 are: Elizabeth and Herbert
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- AnnularCane
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Re: Big ones for 2023
2023 Names:
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harold
Idalia
Jose
Katia
Lee
Margot
Nigel
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
I think I will go with Emily again. I predicted Emily in 2017 and well...we know how that went. But I will give her another try. Jose is also calling out to me. And what the heck, maybe the I storm again (kind of like picking a "safe school" when choosing colleges? lol). Although at the same time I'm not actually feeling that confident that both Idalia and Jose will be big ones.
Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harold
Idalia
Jose
Katia
Lee
Margot
Nigel
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
I think I will go with Emily again. I predicted Emily in 2017 and well...we know how that went. But I will give her another try. Jose is also calling out to me. And what the heck, maybe the I storm again (kind of like picking a "safe school" when choosing colleges? lol). Although at the same time I'm not actually feeling that confident that both Idalia and Jose will be big ones.
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"But it never rained rain. It never snowed snow. And it never blew just wind. It rained things like soup and juice. It snowed mashed potatoes and green peas. And sometimes the wind blew in storms of hamburgers." -- Judi Barrett, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
- Hurricane2022
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Re: Big ones for 2023
Any name between Arlene and Rina
Well... my bets for now are: Don, Harold and Idalia.
Well... my bets for now are: Don, Harold and Idalia.
Last edited by Hurricane2022 on Sat Dec 31, 2022 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Big ones for 2023
I feel like since I believe there will be a quick onset to El Niño the name Cindy pops into my head as a July major before El Niño becomes firmly entrenched and Cindy will be 120mph in the GOM but weaken upon landfall to a tropical storm due to shear from the on coming El Niño
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Re: Big ones for 2023
Given what I said in the naming list retirements thread, I have a wild take... Arlene.
A very late season start due to transitioning to neutral ENSO or El Nino, followed by an Allen or Andrew-like scenario (in terms of timing, not track or intensity).
Fun fact: Arlene is the most frequently used name since the practice of naming tropical cyclones began.
More serious guesses: Gert, Idalia, Jose.
A very late season start due to transitioning to neutral ENSO or El Nino, followed by an Allen or Andrew-like scenario (in terms of timing, not track or intensity).
Fun fact: Arlene is the most frequently used name since the practice of naming tropical cyclones began.
More serious guesses: Gert, Idalia, Jose.
1 likes
- galaxy401
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Re: Big ones for 2023
Harold and Jose will be my two. Yeah the ones surrounding the I name.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: Big ones for 2023
This list seems to have a knack for retiring names with different letters so might as well bet on any name that starts with a letter that this list hasn't retired.
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Re: Big ones for 2023
Franklin
Gert
Harold
Jose
Margot
Those 5 are my guesses, although not expecting all of them to be big ones, but maybe 1 to 2 of those names. Best bets IMO are on Franklin and Harold, peak season majors in an otherwise quieter season, and think one or both of these could be Caribbean cruisers that go into Hispaniola or other nearby islands, like in 1987 or 1963 for example.
Gert
Harold
Jose
Margot
Those 5 are my guesses, although not expecting all of them to be big ones, but maybe 1 to 2 of those names. Best bets IMO are on Franklin and Harold, peak season majors in an otherwise quieter season, and think one or both of these could be Caribbean cruisers that go into Hispaniola or other nearby islands, like in 1987 or 1963 for example.
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
- zal0phus
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Re: Big ones for 2023
Emily, Gert, and Jose. I especially hope Gert is on its way out.
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And it all comes tumbling down, tumbling down, tumbling down...
And I just keep letting me down, letting me down, letting me down...
And I just keep letting me down, letting me down, letting me down...
Re: Big ones for 2023
Following over 20 minutes of careful analysis of my remaining ramen noodles from last nights .59 "post-dinner" cup a soup, I am 89% convinced that (3) Atlantic storm names will be retired in 2023.
After a quick start to an otherwise early ending, low yield (11/5/2), and primarily meridional storm track hurricane season, I believe the following storm names will be retired:
Arlene - Will be the earliest on record hurricane (barely), to form in May/early June striking somewhere between Gulfport and Panama City with severely flooding rains.
Franklin and Gert will landfall and impact N. Florida and South Carolina as a potent (Category 2/3) "one-two punch" within a week of each other during August immediately prior to El Nino conditions begin to significantly impact the basin.
After a quick start to an otherwise early ending, low yield (11/5/2), and primarily meridional storm track hurricane season, I believe the following storm names will be retired:
Arlene - Will be the earliest on record hurricane (barely), to form in May/early June striking somewhere between Gulfport and Panama City with severely flooding rains.
Franklin and Gert will landfall and impact N. Florida and South Carolina as a potent (Category 2/3) "one-two punch" within a week of each other during August immediately prior to El Nino conditions begin to significantly impact the basin.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- CFLHurricane
- Category 1
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Re: Big ones for 2023
My bets are on 2023 being a “boring” season and Harold being a silly cyclone.
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I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
Re: Big ones for 2023
CFLHurricane wrote:My bets are on 2023 being a “boring” season and Harold being a silly cyclone.
I would surely welcome a boring season after 7 destructive seasons in a row.
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Re: Big ones for 2023
chaser1 wrote:Following over 20 minutes of careful analysis of my remaining ramen noodles from last nights .59 "post-dinner" cup a soup, I am 89% convinced that (3) Atlantic storm names will be retired in 2023.
After a quick start to an otherwise early ending, low yield (11/5/2), and primarily meridional storm track hurricane season, I believe the following storm names will be retired:
Arlene - Will be the earliest on record hurricane (barely), to form in May/early June striking somewhere between Gulfport and Panama City with severely flooding rains.
Franklin and Gert will landfall and impact N. Florida and South Carolina as a potent (Category 2/3) "one-two punch" within a week of each other during August immediately prior to El Nino conditions begin to significantly impact the basin.
What if we have no el niño this year?
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- WalterWhite
- Category 1
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Re: Big ones for 2023
Taking a shot in the dark here!
Arlene - a short-lived subtropical storm that forms in mid-June in the subtropical Atlantic
Bret - a short-lived tropical storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico in late July
Cindy - an MDR Category III hurricane that impacts Florida in late August
Don - a short-lived tropical storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico in late August
Emily - a short-lived tropical storm that struggles in the MDR in early September
Franklin - an MDR Category I hurricane that delivers moderate impacts to Central America in mid-September
Gert - a short-lived subtropical storm that struggles in the subtropical Atlantic in mid-September
Harold - a Category I hurricane that forms in late October in the subtropical Atlantic
Idalia - a short-lived subtropical storm that forms in early November in the subtropical Atlantic
I am betting on Cindy!
Arlene - a short-lived subtropical storm that forms in mid-June in the subtropical Atlantic
Bret - a short-lived tropical storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico in late July
Cindy - an MDR Category III hurricane that impacts Florida in late August
Don - a short-lived tropical storm that forms in the Gulf of Mexico in late August
Emily - a short-lived tropical storm that struggles in the MDR in early September
Franklin - an MDR Category I hurricane that delivers moderate impacts to Central America in mid-September
Gert - a short-lived subtropical storm that struggles in the subtropical Atlantic in mid-September
Harold - a Category I hurricane that forms in late October in the subtropical Atlantic
Idalia - a short-lived subtropical storm that forms in early November in the subtropical Atlantic
I am betting on Cindy!
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- Hurricane2022
- Category 4
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Re: Big ones for 2023
My bets are these:
Don: A well-crafted copy of Hurricane Danny '15.
Franklin: A moderate Category 4 hurricane that may or may not make landfall in the US in late August/early September.
IDALIA: Similar intensity to Allen'80, similar route to Andrew'92. JUST A HOT TAKE.
Don: A well-crafted copy of Hurricane Danny '15.
Franklin: A moderate Category 4 hurricane that may or may not make landfall in the US in late August/early September.
IDALIA: Similar intensity to Allen'80, similar route to Andrew'92. JUST A HOT TAKE.
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Big ones for 2023
Always a safe bet for the "I" name - Idalia is my bet.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
- JetFuel_SE
- Category 1
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Re: Big ones for 2023
Arlene: already happened in January strong TS near the Azores.
Bret: The ugliest storm since Barry 2019, but well east of Bermuda.
Cindy: 80 mph near SC/NC Border.
Don: Sheared 45 mph mess in the MDR.
Emily: Exactly the same as 2017.
Franklin: Forms from the remnants of an EPAC storm, 40 mph slop that dies in the GoM without making landfall.
Gert: Recurves west of Bermuda as a C3, struggles in the MDR.
Harold: Dies in the Caribbean graveyard.
Idalia: Similar to Gert, but does a Sandy-like curve into New England, retirement worthy.
Jose: Long-tracked hurricane, recurves east of Bermuda.
Katia: Forms from a CAG, hits Louisiana as a Mid-TS.
Lee: Subtropical slop.
Margot: People will argue about if it should've been named at all.
Nigel: Subtropical slop that lives for WAY too long.
Ophelia: Late major over the Florida Keys, retirement worthy.
Bret: The ugliest storm since Barry 2019, but well east of Bermuda.
Cindy: 80 mph near SC/NC Border.
Don: Sheared 45 mph mess in the MDR.
Emily: Exactly the same as 2017.
Franklin: Forms from the remnants of an EPAC storm, 40 mph slop that dies in the GoM without making landfall.
Gert: Recurves west of Bermuda as a C3, struggles in the MDR.
Harold: Dies in the Caribbean graveyard.
Idalia: Similar to Gert, but does a Sandy-like curve into New England, retirement worthy.
Jose: Long-tracked hurricane, recurves east of Bermuda.
Katia: Forms from a CAG, hits Louisiana as a Mid-TS.
Lee: Subtropical slop.
Margot: People will argue about if it should've been named at all.
Nigel: Subtropical slop that lives for WAY too long.
Ophelia: Late major over the Florida Keys, retirement worthy.
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- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
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Re: Big ones for 2023
I'll go with:
Season total 14/5/3
Majors:
Emily (100kt Cat 3): Forms in MDR before recurving between the east coast and Bermuda. Briefly reaches major status in the subtropics.
Idalia (120kt Cat 4): Gulf storm that impacts the gulf coast, strongest storm of the season, Idalia gets retired.
Margot (105kt Cat 3): Late season storm that briefly reaches Cat 3 in the subtropics, no land impacts.
Season total 14/5/3
Majors:
Emily (100kt Cat 3): Forms in MDR before recurving between the east coast and Bermuda. Briefly reaches major status in the subtropics.
Idalia (120kt Cat 4): Gulf storm that impacts the gulf coast, strongest storm of the season, Idalia gets retired.
Margot (105kt Cat 3): Late season storm that briefly reaches Cat 3 in the subtropics, no land impacts.
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
Re: Big ones for 2023
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Always a safe bet for the "I" name - Idalia is my bet.
I think you're right on with this one. I think (v)Idalia is gonna make for some "unexpected watery eyes" around the N.E. Fla/Georgia coastline.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hurricane2022
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Re: Big ones for 2023
Hurricane2022 wrote:My bets are these:
Don: A well-crafted copy of Hurricane Danny '15.
Franklin: A moderate Category 4 hurricane that may or may not make landfall in the US in late August/early September.
IDALIA: Similar intensity to Allen'80, similar route to Andrew'92. JUST A HOT TAKE.
My final bets are:
• Franklin;
• Harold;
• Idalia;
• and Jose.
Now let's wait to see what happens next
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
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