Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 92L)
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Re:Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
If GFS/EURO are correct the Atlantic MDR will have a solid Cat 1/2 by @55W next week. Moving into uncharted hurricane history.
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Re:Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
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Re:Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
USTropics wrote:LarryWx wrote:zzzh wrote::uarrow: Elsa became a TS on July 1.
Thanks for the correction. I saw a track map at the link below with it suggesting to me that it reached TS intensity as of 0Z on July 1st, which would have still been late evening June 30th in its location. However, after your correction, I saw the advisories, which didn't have it upgraded til 5AM AST/09Z on July 1st. So, not Elsa during June.
Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2021.png
1979 had Ana become a TS on 06/22 at 00z:
https://i.imgur.com/I1zpSr1.png
Thanks as I totally missed Ana. And so did this map of 1851-2015 June 11th-20th formations, which has no TCs forming east of the Caribbean. It first became a TD on June 19th:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/jun_11_20.png
So, assuming I now have this right, the earliest TS designations east of the Caribbean in the tropical Atlantic are Bret of 2017 (June 19th), Ana of 1979 (June 22nd), and 1933 (June 24th or 25th).
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re:Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
Short term evolution will have long term track implications. We can start to see on 850mb vort signature analysis two distinct lobes have formed:
How these two vort lobes interact will be key, with the likely scenario of the SW lobe pivoting towards the NE before some type of merger. This could slow down the track of the wave axis/consolidation:
You can see this evolution in the latest ECMWF run and in Blown Aways ensemble run above:
How these two vort lobes interact will be key, with the likely scenario of the SW lobe pivoting towards the NE before some type of merger. This could slow down the track of the wave axis/consolidation:
You can see this evolution in the latest ECMWF run and in Blown Aways ensemble run above:
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Re:Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
12z GEFS have strong system turns N, still wants to develop that W Caribbean low that likely erodes W edge of HP helping turn the Atlantic system N. Interesting many don’t show hard recurve and go N into high latitudes.
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- AnnularCane
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Re:Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/PJ9VKDJS/6-F8-EB423-4-B61-49-A5-A3-A4-F9-A2-F4-EE1-CF8.jpg [/url]
12z GEFS have strong system turns N, still wants to develop that W Caribbean low that likely erodes W edge of HP helping turn the Atlantic system N. Interesting many don’t show hard recurve and go N into high latitudes.
Is it me or does that map look awfully "busy" for the end of June?
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Re:Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
AnnularCane wrote:Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/PJ9VKDJS/6-F8-EB423-4-B61-49-A5-A3-A4-F9-A2-F4-EE1-CF8.jpg [/url]
12z GEFS have strong system turns N, still wants to develop that W Caribbean low that likely erodes W edge of HP helping turn the Atlantic system N. Interesting many don’t show hard recurve and go N into high latitudes.
Is it me or does that map look awfully "busy" for the end of June?
Looks normal to me, for mid august .
That is a concerning look. A number of them do make a US landfall.
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
Really good agreement between our best two models on consolidation of the 850mb vort and the evolution over the next 3 days. This is a very common development of AEWs in the eastern Atlantic, I would put development chances in the 90 percentile.
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
18z GFS already trending significantly stronger. Trend GIF:
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
18z GFS HP is farther W in this run, may make a run on the islands??
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
18Z GFS sure would rack up a lot of ACE points.
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
Models want to develop this quickly, perhaps if development is delayed a bit, model tracks might shift a bit closer to the islands in future runs. The 12Z Euro shifted west a bit.
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
Happy Hour GFS has a hurricane in just 4-5 days. If this pans out, it’ll be unprecedented for an El Niño year AFAIK.
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
18z GFS is sure ramping up the strength on this one, so far low as 957mb. It is starting a recurve here though. A major hurricane in the MDR in June wasn't on my bingo card.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:34 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
Emmett_Brown wrote:Models want to develop this quickly, perhaps if development is delayed a bit, model tracks might shift a bit closer to the islands in future runs. The 12Z Euro shifted west a bit.
18Z GFS has also shifted south and west. Islands still very much in play.
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
Only Trinidad Hurricane reached HU status in MDR in June. We all know what happened in 1933...
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: Re:Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
USTropics wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Of note, while early season development is not usually a sign of an active season, early season MDR development -- especially if this becomes a hurricane -- almost always is a sign.
Hurricane Bertha in 2008 is the closest analog I can think of right now.
Seasons that had a storm form east of the Caribbean and below 20N in the months of June/July:Code: Select all
YEAR ACE
2021 145.7
2020 179.8
2018 132.6
2017 224.9
2013 36.1
2008 145.7
2005 245.3
1998 181.8
1996 166.2
1995 227.1
1990 96.8
1989 135.1
1979 92.9
1969 165.7
1966 145.2
1964 153
1963 112.1
1961 188.9
1933 258.6
1926 229.6
1916 144
1901 99
1887 181.3
AVG ACE 160.3217391
Wow, average ACE of 160. Good deep dive.
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
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Re: Tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (20/60)
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